Opening day is almost here, and with drafts nearly complete, many (including myself) are already itching to get into the nitty gritty details of the season. That means crafty trade proposals and sneaky waiver wire pickups.
If some of you are drafting late, you may even still be looking at grabbing potential late round steals. If there is one statistical category in this pitcher-dominated era of baseball that proves elusive year after year, it is home runs.
Home Runs can be especially elusive after the super stars of the MLB are off of the draft boards in the early rounds or after the blue chip prospects of MLB farm systems make their much anticipated debuts. Today, I present four players who are being criminally slept on for one reason or another, but have huge potential to produce big quantity in the HR category for the 2016 season.
Sneaky Home Run Hitters for Fantasy Baseball
Mark Reynolds (1B/3B, COL)
Owned in 4% of Fleaflicker leagues
Mark Reynolds won't be winning any batting titles anytime soon, but he will be taking at-bats in Coors Field. That is a big ballpark improvement from pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. Reynolds has always been a big home run hitter, hitting as many as 44 in 2009, but last year in St.Louis he hit just 13. What went wrong? Well, Reynolds saw his HR% drop from 5.1% to 3.0% even though his K% actually went down from 28.2% to 28%. Reynolds saw his XBH% rise from 7.2% to 8.3%, and his IF/FB rate went from 19% to 17%.
So why, despite such solid improvement in so many aspects of batting, did Reynolds's HR% drop? Busch Stadium, or at least that is what the numbers indicate. Reynolds had a GB/FB ratio of 0.73, a GO/FO ratio of 0.91, an IP% (In-Play Percentage) of 58%, and a LD% of 23%. Interpretation: Reynolds was hitting the ball into the air, striking out less, and hitting fly balls into the outfield more often; but due to the ballpark, these fly balls weren't becoming home runs. If Reynolds gets any amount of plate time as a Rockie whatsoever, and it's looking like he will after posting big spring numbers, expect him to take advantage of the park and thin atmosphere in a big way.
A.J. Reed (1B, HOU)
Owned in 7% of Fleaflicker leagues
Tyler White has been named the Astros starting first baseman over Jon Singleton and A.J. Reed to start the season. If you have seen A.J. Reed's numbers, this shouldn't be a big deal. The former college baseball player of the year has had just 772 AB in the minor leagues since 2014 spread throughout A-, A, A+, and AA. In that time Reed has jacked 46 HR, with a .324 BA, and a .997 OPS.
In 2015, Reed had a .340 BA, a 1.044 OPS, and hit 34 HR in 523 AB. The Astros typically reside in a very HR friendly ballpark-- and while Tyler White and Jon Singleton are great candidates to play first base, A.J. Reed is the complete power hitting package. When he gets called up to the Major Leagues (and he will, very soon), expect Reed to rack up a large quantity of homers, to go along with a fantastic OPS and XBH%.
Zack Cozart (SS, CIN)
Owned in 7% of Fleaflicker leagues
In just 194 AB last season, Zack Cozart was able to hit nine HR before his season was cut tragically short by injury. Well Cozart is back, and back once again as the starting shortstop in power-friendly Great American Ball Park. Cozart's success last season was no fluke. His HR% went from 0.7% to 4.2%, his K% improved from 14.6% to 13.6%, his BB% improved from 4.6% to 6.5%, his XBH% improved from 5% to 9.4%, and his IF/FB rate improved from 21% to 16%.
His BABIP was even deceivingly low at .258. Cozart is currently being selected as the 48th shortstop overall, which is ludicrous. Zack Cozart showed overall vast improvement to his technical batting skills last season, resulting in nine HR from a shortstop. Given that he is once again playing in a park where fly balls carry very easily, it is safe to say Zack Cozart has a great opportunity to pick up right where he left off last season.
Byung-ho Park (1B, MIN)
Owned in 19% of Fleaflicker leagues
Since 2012 Byung-ho Park has dominated the Korean league with batting averages of .290, .318, .303, .343; OPS figures of .954, 1.039, 1.119, and 1.150; and incredible HR totals of 31, 37, 52, and 53. As Jung Ho Kang proved last season: there might be an adjustment period for players transitioning to America from South Korea, but the transition is far from impossible.
While it is hard to not be tentative of players who have yet to experience American competition, Byung-ho Park has put up figures too monstrous to ignore. When considering he will be getting the at-bats that come with a starting lineup spot, and that he is available in more than 80% of leagues, Byung-ho Park is the ultimate power hitting X-factor going into the 2016 season.
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