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Week four of fantasy baseball is upon us, and we have seen a lot of exciting developments on the starting pitcher scene. Kyle Wright, an early recommendation in this post series, continues to dominate, while young rookies like Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have fallen off a bit due to performance and injury.
The pool of pitchers is thinning as these early-season breakouts get identified and scooped up in most leagues, but we still have some guys that are very well worth a roster that are likely up for grabs in your league.
Here are your starting pitcher fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups recommendations for week four of the fantasy season (May 2nd - May 8th). Let's get to it.
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Waiver Wire Pickups for Shallow Leagues
Eric Lauer, Milwaukee Brewers (57% Rostered)
We saw Lauer put up a career performance last Sunday night as he struck out 13 Phillies in six innings with just one walk. He has really come on strong since the 2021 season began, and he's posted an encouraging 3.07 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over his 24 starts in that time frame. I'm not sure he's really a guy that will strike out hitters are the rate he has this year, but he certainly seems like someone who should be rostered more than he is right now.
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (55% Rostered)
Javier came out of the bullpen for the first time this year to start a game, and he surprisingly threw 84 pitches. That pitch count only got him 4.2 innings pitched as he struggled with some command, but we know this guy is a very talented pitcher and it was quite encouraging to see him throwing that many pitches right away.
For his career, Javier has posted a great strikeout rate of 29%. The downside is the walk rate which is up at 10.7% career, which could be a potential problem. He has already shown improvement on that walk rate as he's posted just a 5.9% BB% this year as and he's topped his career number in K% as well as he's up to 31.4%. It should be quite a good season for Javier, and I think it's pretty likely he sticks in the rotation for the rest of the season.
Josiah Gray, Washington Nationals (52% Rostered)
Gray struck out 10 Marlins last week to bring his season K% up to an awesome 32.9% mark. The downside is that he continues to walk hitters (11.8% BB%) and give up some hard contact (17.4% Brl%, 28.3 PA/HR). We had him in the "deep leagues" section of this post last week, but I'm moving him up because of that impressive ten-strikeout performance.
You really don't want to see pitchers with double-digit walk rates, but it sure does lessen the pain when the strikeout rate is above 30%. Gray's curveball has been sick this year (22.2% SwStr%, 42.4% CSW%), and his slider is working well to boot (15.9% SwStr%, 42% CSW%). Those are encouraging signs as pitches to backup his somewhat mediocre four-seamer (6.8% SwStr%, 26.1% CSW%), so I think the strikeouts are here to stay.
You will certainly get burned by Gray from time to time as he struggles with command, but overall I think he should be rostered for the upside and the strikeouts.
Paul Blackburn, Oakland Athletics (40% Rostered)
Blackburn just keeps getting it done, putting up another solid start throwing five innings with just three this and one walk against the Giants last week while striking out four. He sits with a 32.1% CSW% and an 11.7% SwStr% through four starts. The best news is the 24.7% K% and 2.7% BB% to go with the elite 57% GB%. If you are only walking 3% of hitters and seeing more than half of the balls put in play on you be on the ground, you're going to have success.
I think it's likely he'll end up with a strikeout rate in the low-twenties as his arsenal is really reliant on the sinker, which is not a strikeout pitch. That doesn't mean you can't roster the guy though, those elite walk and ground-ball rates make him roster-worthy for now.
Waiver Wire Pickups for Deeper Leagues
Chris Paddack, Minnesota Twins (29% Rostered)
Paddack is looking like his 2018 self with his new team in Minnesota. He's sitting with a nice 32.5 CSW% and a 14.7% SwStr% right now through three starts (14.2 innings), and he has yet to allow a homer.
The improvement is coming from the added curveball usage (he's thrown 55% four-seamers but then 21% curves and 21% changeups), and a much-improved four-seamer so far (15.9% SwStr%, 38.1% CSW%). I don't know if those gains on the four-seamer can stick, and he's throwing the pitch an awful lot, so I'm not 100% in on Paddack, but overall the indicators are very positive.
I would be adding and starting Paddack right now, but don't get overly invested. If that fastball starts getting hit around again, we can probably abandon ship.
Nick Lodolo, Cincinnati Reds (25% Rostered)
Lodolo looked great in his second and third starts of the year, but unfortunately, now he's hit the IL with a slight back issue. It doesn't seem like a big issue right now, but it's always quite concerning to see a pitcher hit the IL for any reason, especially this early on in the year.
If you can add Lodolo and stash him on your IL, I would do so.
Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays (19% Rostered)
Not sure what to make of Rasmussen. He is coming off of a nine-strikeout performance against the Mariners where he generated 19 whiffs. That was the best outing of his season by far, as his previous high was four strikeouts and nine whiffs.
For the year, Rasmussen has a 29.2% CSW% and a 14.6% SwStr%, which are both really solid numbers. He also does not have any walk issues to speak of with a 5.4% BB% this year and an 8% mark for his career. He is also one of the few pitchers the Rays are willing to get deep into games, as we saw him stretch that pitch count up to 84 in that great start last week.
I'd add Rasmussen for now, but again he's not someone you need to be completely committed to if things go bad in the next week or so.
Taijuan Walker, New York Mets (22% Rostered)
We can't glean much from Walker's early-season numbers, as he's made just two short outings thus far. What we saw last year was a pretty solid pitcher who was inconsistent and didn't get a ton of strikeouts (22%). In his first outing this year, he looked ridiculously good, facing six hitters, setting them all down in order and striking out four of them. Then he hit the IL with an injury that looked really bad, but he returned to the mound on Saturday.
I would really doubt Walker can stay healthy all season, and the production will be inconsistent, but you could do much worse on the waiver wire than this talented arm flashing a bit of upside in 2022.
Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers (13% Rostered)
Anderson joined the Dodgers rotation after the bad news on Andrew Heaney, and he's taken advantage of the opportunity. He has quickly built his pitch count up to a full load, and he's posted a very nice 2.55 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP in his 17.2 innings this season, earning two wins in that time.
Any pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation gets a significant boost with that offense and bullpen behind them, and Anderson, while inconsistent, is more than good enough to be rostered and started in deep leagues.
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