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It is only short time until the NBA season tips off on October 27, and an even shorter time until your fantasy basketball draft. Rotoballer is here to help, as our fantasy basketball coverage for the 2015-16 NBA season is underway.
Between now and the start of the NBA season, we will be ranking players, digging for sleepers, sniffing out busts, and diving into draft day strategy, with new content online every day.
Previously, we took a look at some undervalued sleepers in fantasy basketball drafts. Today we'll examine some players who are overvalued, either due to unsustainable past performance, an unfavorable change in scenery, or just plain too much hype. These players have a high chance of being busts at their current draft cost.
Hassan Whiteside (C, MIA)
Coming into the 2014-15 season, the Miami Heat were in desperate need of a big man to help rebound and play defense. They found just that about half way through the season with former first round pick Hassan Whiteside. In 48 games, Whiteside posted averages of 11.8 points, 10.0 rebounds, and a stellar 2.6 blocks per game. Those are certainly the numbers of a stud fantasy center.
However, this season could see a drop in production due to the return of a few former all-stars. Last year Chris Bosh only played 44 games while Josh McRoberts was only able to play in 17. Although neither of those players is a true center or elite rebounder, the fact that they are out there will lessen Whiteside's usage of offense. Another issue Whiteside has is foul trouble, which limited him to 23.8 minutes a game. All of these issues add up to a player that could cripple your team as a second or third round pick. He only contributes in four categories, so if he's not as brilliant as he was in those areas last year, his overall value plummets.
Jrue Holiday (PG, NOP)
The idea of teaming a point guard such as Jrue Holiday with a big man like Anthony Davis and a shooter like Eric Gordon makes fantasy players giddy with excitement. A guard who puts up a per game stat line of 18.8 points, 6.9 assists, 1.6 steals, and only 2.3 turnovers per game is certainly hard to overlook, especially with a new up-tempo coach in Alvin Gentry in New Orleans.
Now for the downside. Holiday missed the final 42 games of last season due to a foot injury that has still not healed. Gentry has said Holiday will not be ready for the start of the season and will be limited on return. To make things worse, Tyreke Evans played well at point guard filling in for Holiday and will get the first crack to show his skills to the new coaching staff. As we have seen with Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant, foot issues tend to linger and often cause players to miss more time than expected. If you can get him in the second half of the draft, his upside might be worth a flyer on your bench. But in the 5th or 6th round where he is currently being drafted in many leagues, you are much better off with a player coming into the season fully healthy.
Greg Monroe (PF/C, MIL)
A player on a new team who will likely see his value drop is Greg Monroe in Milwaukee. The former Pistons big man looks to have found a promising young team, but unlike in Detroit where he was the focus of the offense, Monroe could get buried on a talented Bucks team. Last season Monroe turned into a double-double machine on his way to putting up 15.9 points and 10.2 rebounds per game.
Where Monroe’s value has always lied is his passing ability as he was able to dish out 2.1 assists a game as well as 1.1 steals per game, which is exceptional for a power forward. He will now go to a team that has a ball dominant point guard in Michael Carter-Williams, a potential top line scorer in Jabari Parker, and two do-it-all wings in Khris Middleton and Giannis Antetokoumpo. If Monroe could find a spot down on the low block he may be able to carve out 15 points a night with an improvement on his 49.6% field goal rate, but a big man who blocks no shots and who will likely see a drop in many of his counting stats is not worth a pick in the top 60 fantasy of drafts.
Ty Lawson (PG, HOU)
Another new face in a new place is Ty Lawson, who joined the Rockets in the offseason. The former Nuggets point guard has been a solid top 25 fantasy option for several years with averages of 15.2 points, 9.6 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.9 three pointers made per game. Those are without question the numbers of a superstar point guard. However, those numbers came in Denver with no other viable players to take over the offense.
With James Harden being the clear option to lead the Rockets offense, Lawson figures to see a drop in usage rate. Along with that, Lawson has never been a spectacular shooter, with a 43.6% field goal rate and 34.1% three-point rate last year, which also does not help his value when playing off the ball. People are understandably excited because Houston does play at an extremely fast pace and fellow PG Patrick Beverley rarely stays healthy for an entire season. There are hopes his efficiency will improve with better teammates. But even if everything breaks right, he's just not going to see the usage rates he did as top dog in Denver, while the downside with him is huge. Be sure to not overreach for past numbers and the potential of a new offense.
The San Antonio Spurs
Without a doubt it was the San Antonio Spurs who won the off season. Not only did they sign LaMarcus Aldridge, but also convinced stalwarts Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili to return. As a team, this is great news. For fantasy players, this could make nearly every player on the Spurs roster overrated.
Aldridge, for example, had a usage rate of 30.7 last season which put him amongst the league leaders. There is virtually no chance he will see that this season with the number of weapons in San Antonio, while he in turn will help cap the usage of his teammates.
Another player that will go high in drafts is Kawhi Leonard. There is little to no doubt he brings perhaps the most diverse game in all of fantasy in terms of points, rebounds, assists, steals and great percentages. That said, you will need to spend a first round pick on a player who is likely to be the third offensive option on a team and will also likely play a max of 70 games next year.
Playing 70 out of 82 games may not sound like an issue, but that's nearly 15% of the season, with many of those games possibly coming during the fantasy playoffs. With the propensity of Gregg Poppovich to sit players with little to no notice, this can be painful to a fantasy team over the course of a season. The loss of playing time can be made up in a rotisserie in some cases, but in a head to head league the loss of around one game per week for a player can often mean the difference between a win and a loss. Take this into account when drafting any Spur this season.
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