RADIO
We're this close to the regular season, and while there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here) we still need to reflect on the 2020-2021 season and what happened just a few months back in time. We had another short NBA offseason this year and it's time to do some evaluation on another unique season as we prepare for the 2022 campaign.
We have nearly a full season of data for most players to crunch now. It's time to reflect on the 2020-21 season to see who were our "risers" and "fallers" in the rankings. A lot of young players are naturally going to be on the rise, while some older hoopers will definitely be part of the season fallers.
In this article, I will feature some of the players labeled as Guards (PG/SG) who took the biggest drops in their output so you can properly assess their value entering the 2022 draft season as it heats up with tipoff-week approaching.
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Fantasy Basketball Fallers - Guards
Ricky Rubio, PG - Minnesota Timberwolves (now Cleveland Cavaliers)
2020 - 42nd-best Overall
2021 - 90th
It took Ricky Rubio just one game at Tokyo Olympics to prove, once more, that he still has some juice in him. Only he did so while playing for Spain, obviously, as his game is absolutely black and white when he plays international tournaments compared to NBA games. I'm not saying he's bad, but he's far from peak Ricard, and he entered 2021 in a frustrating state of mind after getting traded first to OKC and four days later to his former team in Minny--he played there from 2012 to 2017.
The Wolves were never going to put on a season-long battle, and they also went through growing pains with D'Lo missing time and rookie Anthony Edwards struggling early. Rubio couldn't reach his best level of play, that of recent seasons, and both his per-game averaged and advanced stats hurt. He was good on offense, but both thanks to his own fault and Minny's squad the defense was horrid with a 115 DRtg. Rubio dropped his numbers (per 100 possessions) in rebounds (-1.2), dimes (-1.9), and points (-4.4; the first time he's fallen from 16 points per 100 poss since 2015).
Although Rubio saw a downtick in playing time (career-low 26.1 MPG) his per-36 numbers were also down no matter what with an average of 12-4-9-2 line. Rubio won't be back next season after getting traded to Cleveland. It's hard to envision Rubio starting at the point with Sexton/Garland in tow, but while Rubio's usage cratered to 16.4% last year that should get up this season as the second-unit leading man. Whether he can do a lot with that, given the context he'll be put into, is another whole different story.
D'Angelo Russell, PG/SG - Minnesota Timberwolves
2020 - 77th
2021 - 123rd
Second Wolf to make the column, and one that is truly concerning and should have Minny wondering why the hell did they pull the trigger on that Wiggins-D'Lo trade. Although Russell could only play 42 games this season (45 in 20200), I guess the Wolves at least found an interesting way of using him in playing Russell off the pine, where he wasn't that bad for Minnesota. That being said, fantasy GMs who rostered him was obviously upset because of the role and the games played, which clearly limited him to a borderline top-125 finish.
Russell's shooting efficiency was fantastic; can't lie about that. He posted career-high numbers in FG%, 3P%, and eFG%. But all of his other stats went down including rebounds, assists, steals, and mostly points (falling below 20 PPG for the first time in three years). The lower playing time and 28.5 MPG this season aren't quite the excuse: he also fell or stayed the same on a per-36 minutes basis.
If you thought Rubio's defense was bad (read above), D'Lo's was even worse while his offense wasn't that great at a 108 ORtg. If D'Lo stays on a second-unit role in 2022, the usage will stay sky-high; if he's back to the starting unit (he closed the season on a seven-game starting run) for the full season, though, we'll see how Russell/Edwards/Towns share the shots. Given D'Lo's upside is tightly tied to his scoring and assisting, he could struggle with lower usage rates as part of the starting lineup.
Elfrid Payton, PG - New York Knicks (now Phoenix Suns)
2020 - 153rd
2021 - 155th
Coach Thibodeau is a stubborn man. He's a stubborn man with solid ideas he always goes with, and even though they seem a little bit unreasonable he was able to put the Knicks in the postseason after 73 years of missing it. One of Thibs' main men was point guard Elfrid Payton, who played and started all 63 games last year. With the unexpectedly great rookie Immanuel Quickley in tow and the addition of long-time friend Derrick Rose around too.
This opportunity should have seen Payton put up numbers, but while he was starting games daily he was also limited in minutes playing only 23.6 MPG. That shouldn't change going forward, and in fact, we might have seen the last "good" play of Payton as the Knicks are 1) looking for upgrades at the guard positions and 2) developing their own players, which should improve Payton's abilities.
With a 10-3-3 average per-game line and a 15-5-5 one on a per-36 basis, it's not that Payton was great even when playing along with the first Knicks unit members most of the time. Fantasy basketball is predicated on offensive numbers and usage, and Payton's -0.9 Offensive Win Shares and 23.2% usage rate weren't exactly mindblowing. He also struggled mightily with a 21.6% assist rate, a career-low mark by a mile (his prior low was sitting at 32.8% in 2016 while playing for the Magic). Never trusted Payton as a starting point guard, won't start doing it now.
Eric Bledsoe, SG - New Orleans Pelicans (now Los Angeles Clippers)
2020 - 66th
2021 - 83rd
I'm writing this just a few hours after the Pelicans somehow found a way to move on from both Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams. As New Orleans wasn't enamored with their top-10 draft pick, they decided to trade it to Memphis moving down the board and adding Jonas Valanciunas while also opening cap space for re-signings or FA acquisition. Quite the coup, to my eyes at least. Bledsoe was atrocious at filling Jrue Holiday's shoes in NOLA, and his deal was monstrous. Kudos to the Pels for pulling this deal off. Update: I'm re-writing this after Memphis moved Bledsoe for the second time this offseason, now re-routing him to LA to his former Clippers franchise. I can't promise he will still be there by the time this goes up, knowing how things are going for our pal Eric B.
While not a superstar, Bledsoe has had his moments. Those, though, seem to be way on the rearview mirror for him these days. It's been at least four full seasons since Bledsoe scored 20+ PPG for the last time (12.2 in 2020), dished out 5+ APG (3.8 in 2020), and/or pulled down 5+ RPG (3.4 in 2020). Once Phoenix moved him from Milly, it can be said, Bledsoe was cooked for good.
The Pelicans never found a valuable player in Bledsoe's lone season in New Orleans, and now he's a Grizz-now means at the moment I'm writing this because I'm 100% positive he won't be in Memphis come the 2022 season's tipoff. (See what I was saying? Bledsoe became a Clip just days after getting to Memphis). Even on a veteran role, playing next to youngins Zion/Lonzo/Ingram, Bledsoe could command just a low 18.5% usage rate last season while posting a negative-0.2 VORP and a measly 11.5 PER. Stinking shooting splits (.421/.341/.687) and low stats even pro-rated to a 100-possession basis won't help his fantasy upside next year.
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