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Welcome to the fantasy basketball risers and fallers column, a weekly look at the ebbs and flows of player performance. You'll get a detailed analysis of who's hot and who's not and why that will or will not remain the case. You can expect forward-looking analysis and a mix of immediate and long-term fantasy considerations.
Who's exceeding expectations? Who's falling short of expectations? Let's take a look at some early season trends!
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Fantasy Basketball Risers
Kelly Oubre Jr. - F, Charlotte Hornets
The Golden State Warriors don't miss Kelly Oubre. No one in the front office is scream-singing Olivia Rodrigo's hit song "good 4 u" while fighting back tears in the car—but if anyone in the Warriors front office was to do this, it would be Bob Myers. The Warriors are an NBA-best 10-1 heading into a marquee Friday night matchup against the covid-weakened Chicago Bulls. But the boys in the Bay are not the only party thriving post-breakup.
Oubre is thriving with his new boo too. He's been a reliable bench scoring option for the upstart Charlotte Hornets in the early part of the season and he just set a new franchise record for most points off the bench with 37 in the win against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. Oubre's off to a much better start as a three-point shooter this year. After 13 games, he's shooting 38% from three on six attempts a game, up from 5 attempts a season ago. He shot just 31% from three last season, a significant if useless moral victory after his putrid start from behind the arc last year. Oubre has scored 25 or more points three times already this season and scored in double figures seven times.
Even with his strong scoring in the early going, there's still room for Oubre to improve. It appears Oubre's focus and aggressiveness on the defensive end have waned somewhat. Last season, he averaged one steal and 0.8 blocks. This season, he's averaging just 0.8 steals and 0.2 blocks. If he can return to the more well-rounded player he's been for the majority of his career, he'll be even more of a godsend for fantasy managers.
Gary Payton II - G, Golden State Warriors
There are a number of reasons why the Warriors aren't missing Oubre's defense, athleticism, and finishing around the basket, but Gary Payton II might be the central one. Payton and Andrew Wiggins had their own in-game dunk contest against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night. Payton has turned himself into a high-flying modern big in the mold of Bruce Brown. Brown and Payton are the rare players who play mostly like big men on the offensive end and defend guards and wings on the defensive end. Payton often plays out of the dunker spot in the halfcourt and routinely takes advantage of the excess attention Steph Curry receives with timely cuts. Where things get weird in the best possible way is when the Warriors use Payton as a screener for Steph Curry, often confusing guards who aren't used to defending the pick-and-roll in this way or simply blowing past more lumbering big men. In what has quickly become one of the Warriors' pet actions, rather than actually setting a screen for Curry, Payton slips the screen and darts to the front of the rim to receive a lob from a knowingly excited Warriors' teammate. On Wednesday night, it was Andre Iguodala throwing the lob, but it has been Draymond Green in other games. You can watch both of Payton's dunks against the Timberwolves below—a transition hammer off a Curry no-look lob and a reverse dunk off the specific action described above.
Maybe most encouraging about Payton's play to start the season is the fact his skywalker act has a positive fantasy basketball impact. First and foremost, he's getting playing time. Payton has played double-digit minutes in his last five games and he's scored in double figures in three of those five games. Dunking everything means he has an unusually high field goal percentage for a guard. Payton is shooting 69.2% from the field and 50% from three (5 of 10). He's shot below 50% just once this season, in the Warriors opening night victory against the Lakers when he took and missed just one shot. He provides plenty of defensive playmaking as well. In his last five games, Payton has 11 steals. It's time to ride the Payton vibe train in deep leagues!
Daniel Theis - C, Houston Rockets
After a pedestrian first six games of the season, Daniel Theis has come alive (by his standards)! It should be noted that Theis is not a high-volume anything when it comes to fantasy basketball, but sometimes steady and reliable is exactly what you need. Say in a deep league where you're trying to preserve efficiency on the margins. Here's how bad Theis was in the early going: he did not record a steal and tallied just two blocks in the Rockets' first six games of the season. He accumulated four steals and three blocks in the Rockets' last three games. Theis has also scored in double digits twice in the Rockets' last three games. Maybe it just took some time for Theis to find his way with a new team full of inexperienced if talented young players. It's probably true that the best chance for Theis to increase his productivity would be to get traded to a team with more talent, but there's no guarantee that trade is ever executed. The Rockets might see Theis as an important veteran steward who can help stabilize their rebuild.
After the recent recalibration, Theis' numbers have fallen in line with his career norms, but in watching the Rockets play recently, I've been struck by Theis' three-point shooting. He's three for five from three in his last three games and has mostly shot them without hesitation. It's unlikely anything comes of this, however. Theis is shooting 33% from three on the same volume as previous seasons—that's probably just who he is at this point. But it would be fun to see him reprise the "veteran-big-goes-berserk-on-a-rebuilding-team" role that Kelly Oubre fulfilled so well last season.
Fantasy Basketball Fallers
Duncan Robinson - F, Miami Heat
Let's start with the good news. Duncan Robinson is healthy, a starter, and is taking nine three-point attempts a game, up from eight and a half last season. That's about it for the good news. Robinson is shooting 32.5% from the field, 31.2% from three, and 62.5% (5 for 8) from the free-throw line. Robinson is one of the best shooters in the world and he should eventually break out of this slump, but the poor shooting nights appear to be weighing on him. He missed two clutch free-throws in the Heat's overtime loss to the Lakers on Wednesday and shot just 5 of 24 from three in the Heat's Staples Center back to back against the Lakers and Clippers. Erik Spoelstra has repeatedly expressed confidence in Robinson in press conferences and the Heat are not exactly a deep team, so he should get plenty of chances to find his way this season.
Clint Capela - C, Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks are off to a slow start this season at 4-8 and 13th in the Eastern Conference. Last season, the Hawks outperformed expectations by finishing 21st in Defensive Rating (113.3). This season, however, the Hawks are 28th in Defensive Rating (113.2). It should be noted that the early part of the 2021-2022 NBA season has been a less-friendly offensive environment, which is how the Hawks can drop seven spots in the rankings without any real change in their per possession numbers. Capela's disappointing play certainly has a lot to do with the team's defensive slippage. It's not clear to me whether Clint Capela's reduced production is a result of lingering Achilles issues or some other confluence of factors, but something is off. Last season, Capela averaged 15.2 points 14.3 rebounds, 0.8 assists, two blocks, 0.7 steals, and 1.2 turnovers. This season, he's averaging nine points, 11 rebounds, one assist, one-point-three blocks, 0.7 steals, and 0.4 turnovers. His scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking are all down this season, and given his style of play, that dropoff screams athletic decline. Concern has to be mounting for anyone who made him a priority at the draft and given the lingering injury question, it's difficult to be overly optimistic about his fortunes going forward this season.
Kevin Porter Jr. - G, Houston Rockets
Kevin Porter Jr. is a talented young guard with a wicked stepback and a general penchant for space creation and nifty, footwork-driven finishes after being brought to a standstill on his forays to the basket. Unfortunately, that's not all that exciting for a young "point guard." Point guard is the position Porter Jr is playing at the moment, but it seems more likely he winds up as a combo guard alongside a better playmaker or a microwave scorer off the bench. It's possible KPJ settles into his role and figures out how to be more efficient as the season progresses, but very little is working for him at the moment. This season, he's averaging 12.8 points, four rebounds, five assists, one-point-three steals, 0.4 blocks, and four-point-five turnovers, with shooting splits of 36/30/68. KPJ may shoot better as the season goes along—he shot 44 and 42% in his first two seasons in the league. However, where are the easy baskets going to come from for KPJ? His life is certainly being made more difficult by playing the point, but hopefully the struggles this season pay off in the form of improvements in the near future.
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