RADIO
By now most fantasy players know what starters around the NBA are up to. But it can be fun and surprising to check out how role players are doing in limited minutes, and project that to a bigger role. This is where Per 36 minute stats come in. These stats take the rate per minute of each statistic for a player and show you what those would translate to if they played 36 minutes a game (for the kids: 36 minutes is an archaic number that used to represent an NBA starter's playing time before coaches like Gregg Popovich and Steve Kerr made it popular to keep your favorite players rested by rarely playing anyone more than 30 minutes a game).
Many of these numbers in short playing time wouldn't really translate to the same rates in a starting role. This is especially true of guys who serve as bench scorers who dominate usage on less talented second units -- they wouldn't get to shoot the ball near as much playing with starters. You could also make the argument that these players typically play against softer opponents, though I do think that factor is largely negated by playing alongside lesser teammates as well. Either way, it does take some analysis, and that's why I'm here. Let's take a look at a few players averaging between 10 and 20 minutes a game who had the best Per 36 minute fantasy lines over last 30 days before the All-Star Break.
Position Eligibility & Ownership Rate Based on Yahoo! Fantasy Basketball Player List
NBA Per 36 Leaders: Fantasy Basketball Sleepers in Part Time Roles
Marreese Speights (PF/C, GS) - 2% Owned
Per 36 Minute Stats in the Last Month:
| FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | PTS | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| .409 (23.6) | .824 (4.6) | 25.0 | 1.9 | 12.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
We'll start off with an example of someone whose per 36 stats are inflated due to his high usage as a second-unit scorer. Absolutely no one in the NBA attempted more field goals per 36 over the last month than the 23.6 attempted by Marreese Speights. That's nearly one shot for ever 1 minute and 20 seconds! The only other players in the NBA to average even 20 attempts per 36 over that stretch were Pelicans bench spark plug Jrue Holiday and the two biggest scoring threats in the NBA, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant.
There's no way Speights would attempts as many shots if he were to take on more playing time for the Warriors due to an injury to Andrew Bogut or Draymond Green. He certainly wouldn't be taking shots away from Curry or Klay Thompson. He wouldn't end up scoring 25 points a game with 2 threes. That wouldn't be all bad, though, as he also wouldn't mean complete death to your team's FG% -- the impact would be much lower, while the efficiency would be a little higher playing with the starters. In the end, while the per 36 scoring is a mirage, the combination of nice rebounding, good FT shooting, and a few blocks and treys would still end up making Speights pretty valuable if he got extended run with the Warriors down the stretch.
David West (PF, SA) - 10% Owned
Per 36 Minute Stats in the Last Month:
| FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | PTS | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| .600 (10.8) | .917 (1.7) | 14.5 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 |
Unlike most of these players, David West doesn't require us to speculate about whether he is capable of filling a big time starting role in the NBA. He did so for a decade with the New Orleans Hornets and Indiana Pacers. During that time he was an efficient scoring threat, big-time rebounder, and under-the-radar facilitator as a passer. Now, instead of having to carry the load as one of his team's two best players, West is looking to win as just another cog in the Spurs machine. Playing in San Antonio has allowed West to maximize his skillset in a limited role, focusing on what he does best. So how useful is it to project what he's done in a limited role into starter's minutes?
One thing we know about the Spurs is that they will keep guys rested. This cuts two ways for West. On the one hand, rest for Tim Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge down the stretch will lead to starts for West. On the other, West himself will have his playing time capped even when he does start -- in 15 games as a starter this season, West has averaged just under 23 minutes played. While the efficiency is great, the counting stats are still going to be too low if he's only playing 23 minutes a game.
The glimmer of hope comes in that most of his starts have come in place of Tim Duncan, rather than LaMarcus Aldridge. If Aldridge were to rest more often, they might end up higher quality starts. It probably won't be that much higher -- in a small sample size of 3 games in which Aldridge has sat, West averaged just under 24 minutes. The Spurs do have a ton of players who fall into the same boat as West as far as top tier per 36 production in a limited role -- Boban Marjanovic has averaged 21.7 points and 15.8 rebounds per 36 over the last 30, while Patty Mills has averaged 18.6 points with 5.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.3 treys. Nonetheless, fantasy owners in roto leagues should keep West's efficient number in mind, and be ready to capitalize if Aldridge, who has a history of nagging injuries, starts to get more frequent rest in preparation for the Spurs' playoff run.
Cameron Payne (PG, OKC) - 1% Owned
Per 36 Minute Stats in the Last Month:
| FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | PTS | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| .400 (14.2) | .714 (1.1) | 14.5 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
Part of the amazing rookie class from the 2015 NBA Draft, we know Payne isn't going to be earning more minutes on a healthy Thunder team. All-Star Game MVP Russell Westbrook is about as big a roadblock there can be on a young player's path for more playing time. However, Payne has been so solid in the playing time that he has received, I thought it was worth highlighting. Payne has essentially been a poor man's Westbrook when it comes to passing the ball, creating turnovers, draining threes, and attacking the boards from the point guard position.
It's not worth dwelling on Payne much more than that here, but if something were to happen to Westbrook, you should be prepared to race to the wires, blow your FAAB, whatever it takes to add Cameron Payne to your team, because he would be a fantasy game-changer.
Aron Baynes (C, DET) - 1% Owned
Per 36 Minute Stats in the Last Month:
| FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | PTS | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| .542 (12.6) | .780 (5.4) | 17.9 | 0.0 | 11.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
Baynes has been quietly solid coming off the bench for the Pistons. He's often played an important role in crunch time for Detroit, coming off the bench in place of Andre Drummond as a rim protector who can actually hit free throws in situations where hack-a-Drummond is threatening to derail things for the Pistons. While he isn't near the dominant interior threat that Drummond is, Baynes could hold his own if thrust into a starting role. In a rotisserie fantasy league he'd actually be more valuable than Drummond is, because he wouldn't be a complete anchor to your FT%.
Baynes is another guy like Payne who'd require an injury to the stud in front of him to see any playing time, but with rates like this we can be fairly confident he'd be a very solid producer if he did have to step up.
Lance Stephenson (SG/SF, LAC) - 3% Owned
Per 36 Minute Stats in the Last Month:
| FG% (FGA) | FT% (FTA) | PTS | 3PM | REB | AST | STL | BLK | TO |
| .682 (10.6) | .714 (1.7) | 16.9 | 1.2 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 2.2 |
I saved the best for last. There's obviously no way Lance could sustain a .682 FG% over any reasonable sample size. But it's still worth an acknowledgement that the dude is hitting his shots, not making headlines for the wrong reasons, and starting to see more playing time for the Clippers, particularly since the injury to fellow reserve Austin Rivers.
Of all the guys I've listed here, Stephenson's efficiency is the most likely to plummet if given more playing time. However, he's also the most likely to get more playing time if he keeps playing even reasonably well. He's been involved trade rumors in which he could end up on a younger team where he could get more run. The latest rumors as of press have him being sent to the Magic, who would possibly waive him, allowing him to choose his own situation. It might be actually better if stays with the Clippers, though. They are so short-handed they might not be able to avoid continuing to amp up his run like they were before the break, and he'd still get to play with Chris Paul who is capable of getting the best out of almost anyone.
So let me blow a little something into your ear: maybe don't discount Lance out of hand -- his per 36 numbers aren't looking so bad lately.
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