RADIO
You may have already seen one or both iterations of my 2021 All-Sleeper Team. Now it's time to flip that coin around and see what's on the other side.
Busts aren't as fun to read about as sleepers but it's just as important to know who not to draft. It's a bit harder to define what constitutes a bust as opposed to a sleeper. Is it someone who totally crashes and burns, becoming unstartable by midseason? Do injured players count as busts? Is simply failing to live up to ADP enough?
My criteria for selection will be as follows: a QB from the top-20, a pair of RBs within the top 30, two WRs inside the top 40, and a top-15 TE according to current industry consensus ADP by position. I believe these players will fall well short of return on investment, with the QB/TE placing at least five spots lower in positional fantasy finish by season's end and the RB/WR at least 10 spots lower. I may be wrong but you won't find any of these players on my fantasy teams in 2021.
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Running Back Busts
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
It's to the point I almost feel bad writing about how Sanders will bust for the umpteenth time this offseason but if there's a platform for it, this is it.
A cursory glance at his stat line shows that Sanders bumped up his rushing average to an impressive 5.3 yards per carry and his rushing yards per game to 72.3, which was seventh-best in the NFL. That tends to happen when you rip off 75-yard gains. To be specific, he had runs of 82, 74, and 74 yards which comprised 26% of his season total. Being dependent on big plays isn't ideal but if you can pull it off with regularity, it still provides value.
We know Sanders' ceiling as a game breaker based on long runs and his rushing averages are solid but he is set to decline in the most important stat for running backs in fantasy - touches. His failings as a receiver and pass protector will keep him off the field for passing situations. PFF graded him at 33.9 in receiving; only Ronald Jones and Phillip Lindsay were worse among RBs.
We must also account for a new coaching staff with no ties to Sanders. He'll have to prove himself to retain the starting job.
It's not a strict requirement to fade Sanders just because you find yourself falling in love with Kenneth Gainwell. It just so happens I'm in that position. Gainwell has drawn praise for his natural hands, even from Sanders himself.
Miles Sanders on Kenny Gainwell's pass-catching ability: “He probably has the best hands in the room. I’m not afraid to say that. He has very natural hands. He practices without gloves, just to make it easier on him when he does put gloves on. And I like that.” #Eagles pic.twitter.com/jvTgpZTKQd
— Eagles Nation (@PHLEaglesNation) August 26, 2021
I like it too. I will especially like it when Gainwell leads all Philly RBs in receptions and finishes as the top fantasy runner. He's shown the burst that made him a prolific runner at Memphis and could usurp Sanders on early downs too. Then there's a running QB in Jalen Hurts who can steal carries and touchdowns. All this means Sanders' floor will have been pulled out from under him and those highlight-reel runs will be all that's left for us to cling to. And by "us" I mean someone else because I'm not drafting Sanders anywhere this year.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
I recently covered my concerns regarding Swift in a piece about preseason fallers to worry about. Nothing has changed to alleviate those concerns. He was limited throughout training camp, didn't touch the ball in preseason game action, and has his head coach unsure about when he will be ready.
That aside, even if Swift were 100% healthy by opening kickoff of Week 1, the other factors are enough to steer me away from him at the cost of a top-40 draft pick. The Lions won't be able to afford to run the ball as much as they'd like and touchdowns might be sparse on the ground. The main factor is Jamaal Williams, who again will touch the ball far more than fantasy managers would like. His physical talent is not in question whatsoever. His team context and lingering injuries are big red flags that are too hard to ignore.
Wide Receiver Busts
Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterbacks with low ADoT tend to favor receivers closer to the line of scrimmage. That means players who stretch the field and run more go routes have less of an impact. You see where I'm going with this.
Claypool led the Steelers by far in Air Yards last year with 1,438. Only Diontae Johnson joined him in surpassing the 1k mark and that was 1,144 Air Yards on 35 more targets. Unsurprisingly, Claypool's 13.2 ADoT was also a team-high. According to Matt Harmon's Reception Perception, Claypool's most frequently-run route was the fly/go at 26.8% and he posted a 55.6% success rate. That sounds like a big-play machine, which is what Claypool was according to statistics.
But... a closer look reveals that Claypool made a few big plays in spurts and was otherwise unproductive most games. Remember his coming-out party in Week 5 against the Eagles when he caught seven balls for 110 yards and three touchdowns? He had only one other 100-yard game and it was in Week 17 when it did fantasy teams no good. In fact, he only crossed the 60-yard mark three times after that explosion. He struggled down the stretch along with the entire Steelers offense and that's the main concern.
As mentioned above, Ben Roethlisberger isn't very good on deep balls anymore and that's Claypool's bread-and-butter. Claypool's not going to take secondaries by surprise this year and will be lucky to grab more than a few bombs thrown his way. Hate it all you want, but Butterfingers and TikTok are the leading targets in the offense with Claypool depending on touchdowns for production. That's not a recipe for success on a team with a shiny new RB and rusty old QB.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
This isn't about Daniel Jones, really. He was actually first in deep-ball accuracy and should be capable of getting Golladay the ball. The issue with Golladay is he isn't fully healthy and he is moving from a pass-first offense with the Lions to the more conservative Giants. Detroit had the fourth-highest pass play percentage in 2020 while the Giants were 16th. That was without Saquon Barkley the entirety of the season. Golladay wasn't around much of 2020 either but there is clearly a difference in having Matthew Stafford to fall back on to Daniel Jones. But wait, this isn't about Jones, really!
Golladay is again nursing a hamstring strain which caused him to miss a pair of games last year before the hip injury. Missing time in training camp while transitioning to a new team is not ideal. He was already bound to see a downtick in targets and now carries the risk of missing games or playing at less than 100%. There are several receivers with a higher floor in the same ADP range I'd prefer, such as Tee Higgins, Courtland Sutton, or Brandon Aiyuk.
Tight End Busts
Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers
Death, taxes, and TD% regression. It's all but inevitable that Tonyan will score fewer than 11 touchdowns. He managed to pull off that feat while seeing just 59 targets on the year. That's an unsustainable 21.2% TD%. The only other tight end to score 11 times in 2020 was Travis Kelce and he did it on 145 targets while playing on arguably the best passing offense in the league. Kelce scored a career-high 11 TD because he also posted career-highs in receptions (105) and yardage (1,416). Tonyan had half as many receptions (52) and 41% of Kelce's yardage (586).
You could claim that the Packers are just as good of a passing offense and that Aaron Rodgers is equivalent to Pat Mahomes but that's not the point. Rodgers is also going to regress negatively from a career-high 9.1% TD% and that will affect all involved, especially the player most reliant on TDs for value (that would be Tonyan). He wasn't just targeted less, he was on the field less than many of his peers. Tonyan finished 18th in snap count among TEs. When he's in there, it's to run routes as his 86.2% route% indicates, but it isn't as often as you'd like for a starting tight end. Even if the additions of Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers make no discernable difference in target distribution, the floor is simply too low to count on Tonyan in fantasy.
Quarterback Busts
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
He barely qualifies here as the QB19 according to FantasyPros' ADP consensus but he does for our purposes. As Big Ben goes, so the Steelers go. That was the case last year but it will change with the arrival of Najee Harris. Roethlisberger put up some fantasy-friendly numbers, including a 341-yard, three-TD game in Week 16 when few were counting on him for their fantasy championship game. That was mostly due to volume, as he surpassed 600 pass attempts for just the third time in his 17-year career. That number should fall quite a bit and he doesn't have high accuracy levels to fall back on.
Big Ben averaged 3.0 completed air yards per pass last year, which ranked 42nd among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. That's about the same as Sam Darnold and less than Jake Luton. For all the talk of 42-year-old Drew Brees becoming a short-throw aficionado with dump-offs and slants, he at least averaged 3.8 CAY/PA in his final season. The 39-year-old Roethlisberger also had the fifth-highest bad throw total. There's also the -1.8% Comp% relative to xComp% which is odd for someone with such a low depth of target. He isn't efficient anymore, he has absolutely no rushing output, and a drop in pass volume hurts even more.
Comprehensive research on deep-ball accuracy done by BrickWallBlitz, which I encourage you to read, ranks Roethlisberger 26th in deep accuracy last season. Despite tossing a high quantity of passes above 20 yards, most of them fell flat.
Honestly, still wasn't particularly impressed with Roethlisberger in Saturday's game despite the solid stat line. His two big plays were this badly underthrown deep ball and then Najee Harris doing most of the work on a catch and run. pic.twitter.com/fxlqhpFikl
— Chris Paul Towers (@CTowersCBS) August 24, 2021
Another year of age won't help that. All told, Roethlisberger seems like a nice discount at QB but is best saved for favorable matchups as a streamer only.
Superflex QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Washington Football Team
Speaking of immobile, aging quarterbacks... Fitzmagic is beloved by all for his personality and majestic facial hair but it's time to get to brass tacks. He wasn't let go by the Dolphins because the front office had to eliminate competition for Tua Tagovailoa and try to justify the draft capital invested in him. Fitzpatrick was released because Tagovailoa will be a better quarterback than him this season.
Fitzpatrick's league-leading 9.6 yards per pass attempt in 2019 was a result of the Bruce Arians offense. In his two-year tenure as a Dolphin, he averaged 7.3 yards per attempt. That's a fine number and his 7.8 Y/A was top-10 last year but keep in mind he played much of the time in comeback mode filling in after halftime when the team was down. With an effective RB like Antonio Gibson and an above-average defense, Fitzpatrick won't be bombing away too often. He isn't often drafted as a starter in single-QB leagues but those who view him as a solid starter in Superflex leagues will be disappointed.
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