Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 11 Lineups

Week 10 in the NFL continued the trend of wild and wacky scoring around the league that leads to fantasy managers playing the guessing game. With players like Trevor Siemian and Kendrick Bourne occupying spots inside their respective top 10, the narrative continues to hold that setting your starting lineups is more than just putting in the better player. In fact, Darrel Williams finished the week as the RB1, doing this on the back of a nine reception game and just 43 yards on the ground. With injury situations continuing to play a large part in the game, the percentage of lineups that can be thrown together increases by the week. It's become tougher to have a set group of defined starters to rely on each week. Instead, fantasy managers have to look at different variables to decide on those final lineup spots.

These informed decisions are what truly defines fantasy football, taking it out of the realm of being "lucky" and making it more of an acquired skill. Most of the casual players lean on scoring projections to make their decisions for them. While as you gain experience, it becomes more apparent that there is more to this game than simply clicking a button. Deep dives into analytics are what can separate more experienced managers apart. Having a true understanding of matchup advantages leads to better-informed lineup decisions and can be the difference between wins and losses. And ultimately is the difference between being in title contention and watching the playoffs from home.

As we go through the analytical data and trends, it's apparent that there are some matchups to attack, while there are some that you should avoid. I dive into those numbers and bring to you some names that aren't your typical starters that should be in lineups while also presenting players that could be facing tough matchups in Week 11.

Week 11 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Justin Fields vs. Baltimore Ravens

After the early season struggles sent many fantasy managers scrambling away, Fields is starting to find his stride. With the Bears coaching staff finally taking the training wheels off, he is showing the athleticism that made him a star at Ohio State. His rushing numbers (148 yards over the last two games) have helped propel him to back-to-back QB1 finishes, while his passing numbers slowly improve. Week 9 saw his highest yardage total to date with 291 yards through the air. Although his metric ranks are still lower at the position due to the poor start, a surprising stat that he currently ranks first in is air yards per attempt (10.7). This shows that as he gains comfort in the system, he is forcing the ball further down the field. I like Fields as a fringe QB1 in Week 11 as he faces a Ravens defense that has allowed 22.39 FPPG to the position over the last month.

Myles Gaskin @ New York Jets

Gaskin has been quite the conundrum for fantasy managers throughout the 2021 season. He has one RB1 finish on the season and two RB2 finishes, while his other seven games have resulted in a high of just RB33. Most of his damage has come from the receiving game as he ranks fourth in targets (48) and fifth in receptions (38). His low rushing totals (344 yards) have limited his upside shown by his 11.5 FPPG (RB28). He's been a tough player to trust all season as you have to pinpoint the right matchup to get him into your lineups. That could be Week 11 as he faces a Jets defense that has been allowing points in bunches to the position over the last four games (47.03 FPPG). Gaskin should be viewed as a potential RB2 with a great matchup ahead of him.

Rashod Bateman @ Chicago Bears

After getting put behind schedule due to his injury suffered in training camp, you knew that it would take a bit for Bateman to get caught up to speed on the season. But things are slowly starting to come together for Bateman. His targets are becoming consistent (eight in each of the last two games) as well as his receptions (11 in two games), which has helped lead to a strong 10.5 FPPG over his first four games. He's yet to get into the end-zone, but that could come as early as this week. In Week 11 he will be facing a Bears defense that has been near the bottom in points allowed to the position (43.20 FPPG) over the last four games. Bateman should be started as a WR3 in this game, with the upside to bring WR2 production.

Adam Trautman @ Philadelphia Eagles

In what could be called my sneaky play of the week, Trautman brings some sleeper potential to the slate in Week 11. Although his metrics have been mediocre at best (4.0 FPPG), he has seen a steady dose of targets (19) over the last three games with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. The production itself hasn't been great, but the trend is pointing in the right direction. Something that could help him this week as he faces an Eagles defense that has been the worst in the league in points allowed over the last four games (24.03 FPPG). If you are currently streaming at the position, or need an option to pivot to in Week 11, Trautman could be your guy.

Week 11 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Justin Herbert vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

When it comes to inconsistent performers, Justin Herbert is just that in 2021. Over his last seven games, he has alternated QB1 and QB2 finishes. These inconsistencies have yet to translate to his metric rankings as he ranks easily inside the top 10 in most categories. What's odd to see though is how he keeps the ball close to the line of scrimmage (19th with 7.2 yards per attempt). But overall, his big games have been enough to make up for the bad ones as he ranks at QB8 on the year with 22.1 FPPG. This week could be another down game for Herbert as he faces a Steelers defense that ranks inside the top 5 in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks over the last month (10.73 FPPG). He is a QB that is tough to bench, so if he is in your lineup you should temper expectations.

Darrell Williams vs. Dallas Cowboys

After his amazing RB1 finish in Week 10, a lot of fantasy managers may be eager to insert Williams back into their lineups. But before last week, Williams has been just another guy at the position with a high finish of RB20 in his past three games. His work in the receiving game has helped propel his number as he ranks as an RB1 in both targets (37) and receptions (31). His 27 red zone touches rank inside the top 12 as well. But he could be in store for a rough week with a matchup against a Cowboys defense that has been stingy against opposing running backs (19.17 FPPG over the last month). Add in the fact that Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be making a return in this game and you have fewer opportunities for Williams. Taking him from an RB2 to Flex consideration only.

D.J. Moore vs. Washington Football Team

The early season stretch from Moore feels like a lifetime ago for fantasy managers. The consistent double-digit target games and WR1 finishes have morphed into like just 11 catches over the last three games. On the season he still ranks fourth in targets (95), sixth in reception (57), and 12th in yards (701). But he has just three scores on the year which has limited him to just 14.7 FPPG (WR24). This week he faces a Washington defense that has started to turn things around in the last month, allowing 33.97 FPPG to the position. Now with Cam Newton as the starting QB, it's very likely that Moore's opportunities continue to decrease. No longer is he scratching for WR1 finishes instead he will be clinging to belong as a WR2.

Zach Ertz @ Seattle Seahawks

The trade that sent Ertz to the Cardinals was met with excitement, especially after he scored in his team debut. But since that game, his high finish at the position has been TE16 over the last three games. He still ranks inside the top 12 in targets (51), receptions (32), and scores (3). But that has still not helped his overall fantasy production as he ranks at TE17 with 8.7 FPPG. He could be set up to disappoint yet again in Week 11 with a matchup against a tough Seahawks defense that has allowed just 9.93 FPPG to the position over the last four games. With so many streamable options at TE, Ertz should be a player that is kept on the bench this week.

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