RADIO
As we move toward the fantasy season, it is important to start identifying players that have breakout potential in the middle to late rounds of fantasy drafts. Hitting on middle-round picks provides important depth for fantasy teams and makes it easy to take chances in the early rounds for high-upside players. One of those hidden gems that have the potential to have a huge season in real life and fantasy is Baltimore Ravens’ wide receiver, Rashod Bateman.
The 2021 first-round pick for the Ravens had his professional career get off to a rocky start after he suffered a core injury during training camp. The rookie missed the first five weeks of the season before making his debut in Week 6 with a modest four receptions for 29 yards. Bateman saw a steady stream of targets during the rest of the season (10 of 12 games with at least four targets) but struggled to have much of an impact because of the presence of Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews (along with an injury to Lamar Jackson that forced Tyler Huntley to play in seven games).
Bateman will now have a healthy offseason to prepare for his second year in the league. That, along with changes to the Ravens’ wide receiver corps, gives fantasy managers plenty of reasons to be optimistic for the 2022 season. Here are the reasons why fantasy managers should be targeting Rashod Bateman.
2021 Season Review
Heading into the 2021 season, there were plenty of reports written about how the Ravens wanted to pass the ball more to become a more balanced offense. While those predictions ultimately came true (Baltimore passed 611 times in 2021 compared to 406 times in 2020), the reasons why aren’t very repeatable. Baltimore lost three running backs (J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, and Justice Hill) to season-ending injuries before the season started. This forced them to rely on a UDFA (Ty’Son Williams) and veteran retreads (Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray, and Le’Veon Bell) in the run game. Additionally, the Ravens were decimated by injuries in the secondary, which led the offense to throw the ball more in shootouts. Not helping matters was the fact that Lamar Jackson suffered a knee sprain that cost him five games, forcing an undrafted quarterback (Tyler Huntley) to play in seven games.
Despite all of that, there were some positives for the Ravens’ passing attack. Both Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown had career-best seasons. Each player surpassed 140 targets, 90 receptions, 1,000 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Andrews finished the year as the TE1 in fantasy football while Marquise Brown finished as the WR22 in fantasy points per game (14.1). Aside from those two, there was very little to write home about from a production standpoint.
Despite the underwhelming production from Bateman in his rookie season, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about him in his second year.
2022 Outlook
During the NFL draft, the Ravens opted to trade Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals, locking Rashod Bateman into the WR1 role for the 2022 season. Brown commanded at least 100 targets and a 23% target share during his last two years with Baltimore, leaving a huge role in the passing attack to be filled.
Bateman, a former first-round pick, finds himself as the most talented wide receiver in a room full of players complimentary players like Devin Duvernay, James Proche II, and Tylan Wallace. The Ravens have opted to not add a solid veteran free agent or any wide receivers during the NFL draft, showing they have faith in Bateman’s ability to produce as their WR1. Mark Andrews will still be the focal point of the passing attack, but Bateman should be in line for a huge target share beside him.
It's also important to note that it is extremely unlikely that Baltimore has 600 passing attempts in 2022 if the running back room (and Lamar Jackson) are back to full health. However, Baltimore could choose to pass less than they did in 2021 while also finding a better run/pass balance than they had in years past. In 2020, the Ravens threw the ball just 406 times. Despite the lack of passing attempts, Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown combined to absorb 46.3% of the team’s targets. That same combination had 48.9% of the team’s target share in 2021. More targets result in better-receiving numbers, but it proves that Baltimore has no problem funneling their targets into Andrews and their top receiving option.
Prediction for Rashod Bateman
There are plenty of factors that we need to consider when it comes to projecting Rashod Bateman’s output in 2022. First, Bateman commanded just an 11.1% target share in his rookie season. Over the last three seasons, Marquise Brown averaged a 21.6% target share (including at least a 23.9% the last two seasons). While it is difficult to immediately slot Bateman into that role, it is fair to assume he can command 18 to 20 percent of the targets in his second season.
Secondly, we have to try and figure out how many passing attempts the Ravens will have. If we believe that Baltimore wants to find a better balance in their passing and running games when fully healthy, then it gives us a solid range of passing attempts to look at. The charts below show possible outcomes for Rashod Bateman based on his assumed role in a higher volume passing attack.
If you assume the Ravens find their passing volume in the 525 attempts range, then the most likely outcome for Rashod Bateman is that he finishes as a high-end WR3 in fantasy, but that is just a median outcome. It is also difficult to determine Bateman's role in the red zone given his size and route running ability. There is a real chance that Bateman can exceed that expectation based on his draft capital, situation, and an uncertain passing attack.
According to NFFC ADP, Bateman is currently being drafted with the 93rd overall pick and is going off the board as WR39. Given the lack of target competition in Baltimore combined with his athletic pedigree and role as a top-2 target in a consolidated passing attack, Bateman profiles as an excellent value that can vastly outperform his current draft spot and provide strong play for fantasy managers as their third wide receiver or FLEX.
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