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The King’s new series on hot fantasy football topics for the 2020 season focuses on separate divisions in each edition. We will examine some of the biggest burning questions per team as you plan for your upcoming drafts.
In this installment, we tackle some significant fantasy issues in the NFC West. There is a new superstar WR in the division, two RBs that could exceed expectations, and an impressive pair of WRs that could both stand out on the same team in 2020.
You have questions, and the King has the answers.
Is DeAndre Hopkins still an elite fantasy WR1 in Arizona?
Engel’s Answer: This very question was addressed at length by a recent article on RotoBaller by Mark McWhirter. In every one of his three previous seasons playing with Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins finished as a top-five fantasy wide receiver. He also finished second overall at WR in 2015 as he worked with four different QBs in his true breakthrough season. In 2016, the season before Watson was drafted, he finished 17th.
Hopkins was mostly the primary focus of the Houston passing game in those seasons, as no other Texans pass-catcher finished with more 55 receptions in any of the aforementioned campaigns. Last season, Hopkins was second in the league in target share, fifth in total targets and 11th in hog rate, which is the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. The Texans never found a consistently effective complement for Hopkins. Despite facing heavy defensive coverage every week, Hopkins still posted top-shelf numbers.
DeAndre Hopkins' key metrics from 2019 that illustrate another season with the Texans in which he dominated reception shares. Graphic via playerprofiler.com.
Now he enters a situation with the Cardinals where he should still be the No. 1 WR, but his QB is less established and there is the potential to play with a better supporting cast. Those two prime factors could mean a reduction in overall output from Hopkins. But when you look at the actual numbers, the falloff from Watson to Kyler Murray is not drastic in terms of 2019 production.
Last season, Watson was 13th in the NFL with 3,852 passing yards. Murray was 15th with 3,722. Watson threw 26 TD passes (for the second consecutive season) and Murray finished with 20. Watson did throw for 4,165 yards in 2018, but Murray can be expected to approach or surpass such totals in his second pro season, especially while gaining Hopkins. RotoBaller projections have Murray passing for 4,555 yards and 29 TDs in 2020, which would obviously better any of Watson’s passing lines so far.
Last season, Larry Fitzgerald caught 75 passes and Christian Kirk caught 68 balls. Hopkins never operated with those levels of complementary production in Houston on a consistent basis. . If second-year man Andy Isabella develops as a downfield threat, Murray can spread the ball around very effectively. So Hopkins will not be needed to dominate the receiving distribution like he did with the Texans. Yet his elite skills will continue to make him very dangerous to opponents as he cannot be blanketed in coverage as he was in the past. He will still make many important and big plays.
Hopkins may not be needed to draw 150 targets again or reach 100 catches. Yet he can still be projected to finish with 1,200-plus yards and finish in the range of 10 TD receptions. Fitzgerald may also be hard-pressed to total 75 catches again. There should be some minor regression from Hopkins in his first year in Arizona, but if he finishes with a stat line similar to Chris Godwin’s last year (86-1,333-9) he would still place among the very best at the position. So, I still rank Hopkins third at WR and he remains worthy of a late first-round pick. There is still a heck of a lot of top-shelf output to come and he is ultra-durable and reliable.
Is Cam Akers going to dominate carries and produce at a fantasy RB2 level?
Engel’s Answer: Some analysts and fans criticized the Rams for drafting Akers with the 20th pick in the second round of this season’s NFL Draft, as the team had other pressing needs. When you consider that Los Angeles used its first pick of the draft on Akers, they apparently thought the RB position was high on their list of items to address. Akers fits the bill as the replacement for the departed Todd Gurley.
According to NFL Insider Sam Caplan, who appeared on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio with John Hansen prior to the draft, the Rams did not see Darrell Henderson as anything more than a part-timer. Malcolm Brown is a career backup. Akers should see the field a lot because he is versatile and can be a quality pass blocker. He rushed for over 1,000 yards twice in three seasons at FSU. He has good vision, is patient, can make defenders miss and he can finish drives well at the goal line. His average of 2.91 yards after contact was best among all incoming RBs and he had a very strong combine. The Rams appear to have been impressed enough to tab him as their new lead runner. Rams scout Michael Pierce raved about Akers as “the total package.”
"I think he’s a total package as a back."
Go inside the virtual draft meetings with Les + the scouts as we selected @thereal_cam3 out of @FSUFootball. pic.twitter.com/Smpnbraqx9
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) May 7, 2020
In early drafts, fantasy leaguers seem to be slightly skeptical on Akers, as he is the No. 94 player and RB29 off the board. That is good value territory, and his ADP may start to climb during the summer. Considering where Akers was drafted by the Rams, I expect him to be given the lead back role, and I have him ranked as RB17 right now. The opportunity will be there, and the promise is evident. Expect Akers to be a quality fantasy RB2 as a rookie and he will be a luxury if you land him as your RB3.
Will Raheem Mostert be a dependable fantasy starter?
Engel’s Answer: Last season, the 49ers led the NFC in rushing at 144.1 yards per game. They used three primary running backs to mostly accomplish the feat, as each of their top RBs carried at least 120 times. Mostert led the Niners with 137 attempts for 772 yards and eight touchdowns.
Mostert further separated himself from the rest of the Frisco RB field with an epic 220-yard, four TD performance against Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game. San Francisco then dealt Matt Breida to Miami, seemingly creating more breathing space in the 49ers backfield. But was the roster space cleared for Mostert?
San Francisco, however, is hopeful that Jerick McKinnon can finally return from two injury-ruined seasons and get back in the mix with Mostert and Tevin Coleman. How much McKinnon can contribute is anyone’s guess at this point. If he can recapture much of his form, the Niners could operate a full committee at RB in 2020. If not, it may be a time share between Mostert and Coleman, with the latter getting less work.
So Breida may have been dealt to make room for a McKinnon return. If that fails, though, Mostert may have even more opportunities to carry the ball this year. He averaged just 8.5 carries per game that year and that number simply has to rise. He is the most explosive runner on the roster and can score from anywhere on the field. Coleman rushed for 228 yards more than Coleman on the same amount of rushing attempts. Mostert’s 5.6 yards per carry led all qualified NFL running backs last season.
There is no clear goal-line runner on the team among the primary RBs, as Coleman scored three times last year inside the 10-yard line and Mostert scored twice. Short yardage specialist Jeff Wilson Jr. scored four times, but played sporadically. If McKinnon is healthy, Mostert could have an edge over Coleman for rushing touches with McKinnon operating as the receiving back. Then the short-yardage roles would still have to be determined.
Mostert, however, gives the Niners the best upside, and it has to be noted that after he had a 146-yard rushing outing in Week 13, Coleman never carried more than five times in a game for the rest of the regular season. Kyle Shanahan appears to prefer a shared approach, so Coleman should still have a decent role. Mostert has earned RB1 status on the 49ers, though, and he should not be underrated as a very promising fantasy RB3 for 2020.
Mostert’s ADP is 68 and he is the 25th RB being taken in early drafts, which is right where I have him ranked at the position. You cannot overlook the potentially explosive performances you can get from him at the flex position even if his full workload remains unclear. When you draft Mostert, you are taking him for the weekly ceiling even though the floor remains somewhat shaky. Reliable? Not quite just yet. Worthy of a starting spot in your lineup? Certainly. You like that “upside” word, don’t you?
Can a run-first Seattle offense support two highly productive fantasy WRs?
Engel’s Answer: Pete Carroll’s approach to winning has remained steadfast since he drafted Russell Wilson. Run the ball, limit turnovers, and let the QB attempt to win the game in the final quarter. The formula has been successful for the Seahawks, yet it has generated some fantasy reservations about the receiving game.
Wilson has consistently remained a Top 8 fantasy QB throughout his career and has finished in the top-three in two of the past three seasons. He is perceived as a top dual-threat QB, yet he has not rushed for 400 yards in three of the past four seasons. Wilson was sixth in passing yardage last season (4,110), but was 12th in attempts (516). He was third in the league in TD passes (31). Yet the Seahawks were fifth in the NFL in run to pass ratio. It was another example of how the Seattle offense relies on tremendous efficiency from their QB.
Tyler Lockett finished as fantasy WR12 last year despite a late-season stretch of inconsistency that can be somewhat attributed to dealing with significant injuries. Rookie DK Metcalf had 900 receiving yards and seven TDs and then delivered a true breakout and record-setting performance in the NFC Wild Card Game, catching nine passes for 160 yards and a TD. Now Metcalf is regarded as one of the main second-year players expected to take a good statistical leap forward in 2020.
Wilson is one of the top deep passers in the league, so both WRs have the potential to score eight TDs this season. Lockett has 18 scoring receptions in his past two years. Metcalf has both size and speed to challenge defenses with, and we will likely see him catch more TDs. Only four of his TD catches came in the red zone last season. Metcalf demonstrated during the Wild Card outing that he had started to win more on contested catches. He should score more frequently this year now that he has further developed in that area.
Lockett caught 82 passes last year and Metcalf finished with 58 receptions. Those totals should even out more to the point where each WR should finish with 70-plus catches at minimum. In another 4,000 yard, 30-plus TD pass season for Wilson, it is not difficult to envision both wideouts easily going over 1,000 yards.
There is also some speculation that Seattle may open up its passing game more this season, and with a WR pair such as Lockett and Metcalf, that would make sense. Both WRs are being selected in the top 40 at the position. Metcalf (WR16) is actually being taken ahead of Lockett (WR21) so far. That is not surprising, as Metcalf is considered a very appealing upside performer. But you cannot overlook how Lockett has developed into Wilson’s WR1 over the past two seasons.
I have Lockett ranked as WR15 and Metcalf as WR21. I believe both of them can finish as strong fantasy WR2s this year. I do prefer Lockett for slightly more consistency in terms of catches, and I expect a few more TDs from Metcalf. I am very confident that Wilson can produce two very good fantasy WR2s out of the Seahawks passing game.
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