RADIO
The waiver wire isn't the only place to change the course of your team. The right trade can make or break your season. The key is to buy low on cold players and sell overachieving players whose values have skyrocketed.
While this is a well-known method, some owners still tend to overreact to a small sample size, so it's important to take advantage of those opportunities.
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Fantasy Football Buy Low Candidates
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Rodgers has not been himself, plain and simple. Not being himself, however, has still landed him right on the cusp of QB1 territory through six weeks despite having an early bye (only Drew Brees has more fantasy points having already served his bye). While the eye test hasn’t been pretty, Rodgers has slowly increased his total yards throughout the season, and actually posted his highest completion percentage of the year in Week 6 against the Cowboys.
The two-time MVP gets to face the Bears, Falcons and Colts — three teams in the bottom half in opponents’ passer rating — over the next three weeks. With Eddie Lacy and James Starks both on the shelf, Rodgers could be throwing a lot, and can therefore rack up fantasy points on volume alone. If you’re going to bank on anyone turning around a slow start, it should be someone with a resume as impressive as that of Rodgers.
Doug Martin (RB, TB)
Martin finished second in the league in rushing a year ago, trailing Adrian Peterson by just 83 yards despite seeing 39 fewer carries. His 4.9 yards per carry led all running backs with at least 150 touches, and he had more rushes of at least 20 yards than any other back in football. This season, he gained 86 yards on 25 attempts through one and a half games before going down with a hamstring injury.
Martin had been nearing a return, but reportedly suffered a setback Wednesday and may miss another couple of weeks. This means he will miss out on the opportunity to face a 49ers defense that currently sits 32nd in yards per carry, 32nd in yards rushing per game and 31st in touchdowns on the ground. Still, the Buccaneers only have one formidable run defense left on the schedule, and will draw the Saints twice and Cowboys in Weeks 14-16 (both in the bottom third in yards per carry). Additionally, this setback should further frustrate his current owners. Those who can afford to stash Martin should take advantage of his diminished value, as it will likely pay dividends down the road. He could provide a great return on value just in time for the fantasy playoffs.
Antonio Brown (WR, PIT)
Don’t be so quick to write off the best receiver in football just because his quarterback is hurt. First of all, Ben Roethlisberger is no stranger to playing through injury, and could end up missing just one or two games (Pittsburgh has a bye in Week 8). Secondly, even if Roethlisberger does miss an extended period of time, Brown actually fared well with Jones under center last season— although admittedly it was a small sample size. In Jones’ lone start in 2015, Brown caught six balls for 124 yards despite Jones managing just a 60.8 passer rating.
New England is known for its strategy of neutralizing the opposing team’s best player, but with Roethlisberger not a factor, Bill Belichick may view Le’Veon Bell as Pittsburgh’s most dangerous weapon. A.J. Green’s six-catch, 88-yard showing in New England in Week 6 was nothing to scoff at, either. If Brown’s owner is discouraged by the thought of the star wideout catching passes from someone other than Roethlisberger, don’t hesitate to scoop up the guy who was the most common No. 1 overall pick in fantasy leagues this year.
Fantasy Football Sell High Candidates
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET)
Over his 14 games played since Jim Bob Cooter took over as Detroit’s offensive coordinator, Stafford has managed 33 touchdowns and just six interceptions (14/4 TD/INT this year). However, while he has been one of the more productive fantasy quarterbacks this season, he hasn’t necessarily been the most consistent. The former No. 1 overall pick has three games that make up just about two-thirds of his fantasy points, falling out of the top 18 quarterbacks in Week 2 and out of the top 24 in Week 4. Stafford’s three best games came against the Colts, Packers and Rams, all of whom are in the bottom half in opponents’ passer rating.
In Week 7, the Lions face the Redskins, who haven’t allowed a passer rating above 85 during their current four-game winning streak. Then, Stafford will draw the Texans, whose defense allows the second fewest yards passing per game, and the Vikings, whose 65.3 opponents’ passer rating is the lowest in the NFL. Stafford isn’t likely to implode over the final 10 games of the season, but there is certainly room for regression. It can’t hurt to ship him off at his highest value when his replacement could end up with similar numbers over the second half of the fantasy season.
Jay Ajayi (RB, MIA)
Ajayi has understandably been the hottest commodity on the waiver wire this week. All he did in Week 6 against the Steelers was carry the ball 25 times for a whopping 204 yards and two touchdowns. While this performance was undeniably impressive, its hard to imagine the 23-year-old duplicating this kind of success.
Despite holding the single-game rushing lead this season by a wide margin, Ajayi sits outside the top 20 in total yards rushing with 321. He came into Sunday’s game with 304 yards on 3.8 yards per carry for his career, and shattered his previous career-high of 48 yards on the ground. A healthy Arian Foster will get his touches, preventing Ajayi from locking down a role as a workhorse back. Fantasy owners who were able to get their hands on Ajayi should definitely test the market for him.
Kenny Britt (WR, LA)
A week ago, Britt was a buy-low candidate who almost made it into this article. Through five weeks, he totaled 356 yards receiving but failed to find the end zone. Now, after a 136-yard, two-touchdown game against the Lions, the tides have turned.
Britt, now 28 years old, has just five 100-yard games since the beginning of the 2012 season. He is currently catching passes from Case Keenum, who has had a couple of good games lately but has struggled to find any consistency throughout his five-year career. Britt is not a young star set to emerge, but rather an eight-year veteran with a spotty history and a less-than-trustworthy quarterback situation. Find an owner who believes the former, and maximize Britt’s value on the trade market.
