Fantasy Football Champs and Chumps - Offensive Line Analysis for Week 16

Week 15 was a blood bath for fantasy football players with numerous high-profile players failing to show up. A combination of injuries and COVID outbreaks wreaked havoc across the NFL, causing one of the lower fantasy scoring weeks of the season. While some reliable players like Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Jonathan Taylor continued to show up for fantasy managers, plenty of other players failed to hit the mark in the most important time of the season.

Offensive line play also suffered in Week 15. Just 13 of 32 teams had an average overall blocking grade above 65 in Week 15. A combination of injuries and COVID outbreaks led numerous teams to lean on their depth last week, leading to one of the poorest overall weeks of offensive line play in the NFL this season. For the teams that were able to survive Week 15’s fantasy letdowns, getting the edge is as important as ever. That is where this article comes into play.

For many leagues, Week 16 is either the fantasy semi-finals or part of a two-week championship round. Now that the season is coming to a close, we have a wealth of information at our disposal to uncover the best plays and waiver wire pick-ups to help lead to victory. This article will break down the best and worst offensive line matchups heading into Week 16 to try and target the players that will ultimately lead to that all-important fantasy championship.

Champ of the Week 

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles' offensive line was on a completely different level on Tuesday night against a depleted Washington defense. The Eagles finished Week 15 as PFF’s best-rated offensive line last week despite giving up three sacks, seven hurries, and 10 pressures against the Football Team. Philadelphia finished the week with an average pass-blocking grade of 73.46, a run-blocking grade of 82.52, and an overall blocking grade of 82.32.

All five of Philadelphia’s offensive linemen finished with a pass-blocking grade of at least 64, a run-blocking grade of 68, and an overall grade of 71. Left tackle Jordan Mailata and right tackle Lane Johnson both finished with overall blocking grades above an 89. It was a completely dominant effort in a game the Eagles needed to keep pace in a competitive NFC.

Chump of the Week

Seattle Seahawks

The worst offensive line performance of the week also took place on Tuesday night as the Seattle Seahawks offensive line was destroyed by a revitalized Rams defensive line. Seattle had several linemen who provided standout performances, but unfortunately, they were few and far between. Left tackle Duane Brown was the only linemen that had a pass-blocking grade above 56. Right guard Gabe Jackson was the only lineman that had both a run-blocking grade above 63 and an overall blocking grade above 56.

When all was said and done, Seattle allowed three quarterback hits, six hurries, and 11 pressures against the Rams. While they didn’t allow Aaron Donald or Von Miller to sack Russell Wilson, they struggled to keep the quarterback clean in the pocket (or generate many running lanes), leading to a 10-point loss in a season that is assuredly over with three weeks left.

Matchups to Target

Atlanta Falcons vs Detroit Lions

Atlanta’s offensive line is coming off a bad week against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15. Atlanta finished the week averaging a 43.1 pass-blocking grade and a 54.4 overall blocking grade according to PFF. Just one offensive lineman (Jake Matthews) finished the week with a pass-blocking grade above 52. In total, the Falcons gave up two sacks, four quarterback hits, 20 hurries, and 25 pressures against one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL this season.

Thankfully for the Falcons, they’ll have a much easier matchup against the Lions in Week 16. Detroit is coming off a victory as a massive underdog against the Arizona Cardinals last week. Despite the win, Detroit’s defensive line generated just two sacks, five hurries, and seven pressures on a mediocre Arizona offensive line. On the season, Detroit has struggled on defense. The Lions have the 31st ranked pass rush (63.2), run defense (43.7), and coverage unit (37.7) according to PFF. Atlanta’s offense has struggled this season, but Matt Ryan, Cordarrelle Patterson, Kyle Pitts, and Russell Gage all have excellent fantasy upside against a bad defense this week. Mike Davis could also be a solid FLEX play if the Falcons can get out to a sizeable lead.

Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

The Chicago Bears' offense struggled on Monday night, but their offensive line played a solid day. Chicago finished the game with a 71.8 pass-blocking grade, a 58 run-blocking grade, and a 61.4 overall blocking grade against the Minnesota Vikings. Chicago’s offensive line didn’t account for any sacks or quarterback hits (those were credited to blitzers or Justin Fields scrambling) but did surrender 14 pressures and 14 hurries on the day. Rookie left tackle Teven Jenkins (81.6 pass blocking, 78.6 run blocking, 67.2 overall blocking) had the best day among Chicago’s linemen. Outside of right tackle (Larry Borom was out), this was the first time we saw Chicago’s offensive line of the future.

Chicago’s young offensive line will have another opportunity to get reps together against the Seahawks on Sunday. Seattle is currently one of the better run defenses in the NFL according to PFF (71.2, third-best), but is ranked 29th in pass rush grades (64.2) and 30th in coverage (43.9). Chicago is a run-first team, but Justin Fields has shown the ability to buy time in recent games and find open receivers. Justin Fields, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and Cole Kmet are all safe starts against a questionable pass rush and bad secondary this week.

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

The Eagles were dominant in Week 15 (see above) and have another fantastic matchup against a bad Giants defense in Week 16. The Eagles come into this week as PFF’s third-ranked pass-blocking team (78.4) and fifth-best run-blocking offensive line (88.5). The Eagles offensive line is playing as well as anybody recently, which can lead to big scoring performances in fantasy across the board in the offense.

Meanwhile, the Giants' defense comes into this game reeling. New York is currently PFF’s 26th ranked pass-rushing team (65.3) and 20th ranked run defense (50.2) on the year. The Giants have just four players with more than 20 pressures on the season and rookie edge rusher Azeez Ojulari leads the team in sacks with nine. Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, and Dallas Goedert are fantastic plays this week. DeVonta has FLEX potential, but will likely get a steady diet of James Bradberry on the outside.  

Matchups to Avoid

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams

Minnesota’s offense should have been able to dominate a Bears’ defense that was ravaged by injuries and COVID-list players. However, their offense struggled to gain any traction, leading to a 17-point effort in a disappointing win. Part of the problem was Minnesota’s offensive line was overwhelmed by Chicago’s makeshift pass rush and the return of Akiem Hicks. The Vikings allowed four sacks, one quarterback hit, four hurries, and nine pressures on Monday night against Chicago. Center Garrett Bradbury (48.9 overall blocking grade) and left guard Mason Cole (40.5 overall blocking grade) were exploited most frequently.

That isn’t good with a game against Aaron Donald and the Rams defense on the horizon. Through 15 weeks, the Rams remain PFF’s top-graded pass-rushing defense (84.2) and run defense (89.4) in the NFL. The combination of Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd combined to generate 13 pressures, three sacks, one quarterback hit, and nine hurries against Seattle on Tuesday night. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson remain must start every week, but expect a lower output from Kirk Cousins heading into a tough matchup with a struggling offensive line.

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

The Texans were able to secure a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15, but their offensive line continued to struggle without some of their more talented pieces. Houston finished the week with a 50.6 run-blocking grade and a 55.4 overall blocking grade against a mediocre Jacksonville defense in Week 15. The Texans allowed one quarterback hit, seven hurries, and eight pressures on Sunday. Only two offensive linemen (left tackle Geron Christian Sr. and center Justin Britt) finished the game with blocking grades above 60.

Unfortunately for Houston, the Chargers come into Week 16 needing a win after a close loss against Kansas City on Thursday night. The Chargers will be without Joey Bosa, but still boast plenty of defensive talent to make Houston’s life miserable. Los Angeles is currently ranked as the ninth-best pass rushing team (77.7) in the NFL. Outside of Brandin Cooks, it is difficult to trust any Houston offensive player for consistent fantasy output.

Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints 

The Dolphins' offensive line was able to put together one of their best games of the season against the helpless New York Jets in Week 15. The Dolphins linemen averaged a 65 pass-blocking grade, 63.5 run-blocking grade, and 65.1 overall blocking grade according to PFF. Unfortunately, those modest numbers came against a Jets defense that is 16th in pass-rushing grades (72.5) and 32nd in run defense grades (33.7) according to PFF. Three Dolphins (left tackle Liam Eichenberg, left guard Austin Jackson, and right guard Robert Hunt) finished with pass blocking grades above 80 and overall grades above 70 on the day.

The Dolphins will face a whole different kind of challenge against the New Orleans Saints on Monday night football. The Saints have the second-best run defense in the NFL according to PFF (82.8). Miami’s run game is already suspect, so that should allow the combination of Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport (70 pressures, 12 sacks, 15 quarterback hits, 43 hurries combined) to run wild against tackles that have struggled throughout the season. Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki are strong volume plays this week, but the entire run game and Tua Tagovailoa are low-end options against a strong defense in Week 16.

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