Endgame Primer: Drafting For Playoff Strength Of Schedule

You cruise to the best record in your league, only to get bumped off by that rival who barely snuck into the playoffs. It’s one of the sheer joys of fantasy football -- for your opponent anyway.

Now is the time to take steps to prevent such heartache, or better yet, position yourself to be the one peaking when it counts. Give extra consideration to players facing cushy defenses in Weeks 14-17, when the playoffs will be held for most leagues under the NFL’s expanded schedule. You’re never going to cross off Christian McCaffrey from your cheat sheet because of his lousy late-season matchups -- nobody’s that fun at parties-- but the endgame should be incorporated into your draft prep, especially for those close calls that inevitably arise.

Here’s a look at how the late slates affect the key positions for 2021:

Quarterback

Good Matchups

FitzMagic figures to be in full effect come fake playoff time. Washington’s Ryan Fitzpatrick gets to play division rivals Dallas and Philadelphia twice each. Those were the seventh and fifth-most favorable defenses for quarterbacks, respectively, last year in fantasy points allowed to the position (adjusted for schedule strength), according to data from FantasyPros.

Detroit’s Jared Goff has three easy matchups: Arizona, Atlanta, and Seattle. The Falcons gave up an average of 23.5 fantasy points to QBs in 2020 -- the most of any defense.

Daniel Jones gets friendly contests against the Chargers, Cowboys, and Eagles, though things turn dicey during championship week when the Giants are on the road against the Bears. Chicago was among the stingier defenses against quarterbacks, allowing 17.4 points per game.

Other QBs with advantageous playoff schedules, at least on paper as of July, include San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance, and whoever is behind center in Houston -- Tyrod Taylor, Davis Mills, or Deshaun Watson (unlikely given his legal issues). The Niners get generous Atlanta and Tennessee. The Texans have softies like Seattle, Jacksonville, and the Chargers on the docket, partly offset by a toughie, San Francisco.

Not-So-Good Matchups

If Kirk Cousins starts off strong, owners should consider flipping him prior to the playoffs. A gnarly foursome awaits the Vikings' signal-caller: the Steelers, Bears, Rams, and Packers. Los Angeles allowed QBs the fewest fantasy points last year, an average of 14.5, and led the league in sacks, while Pittsburgh was close behind in points and No. 1 in pressures. Minnesota’s two NFC North rivals are salty too, and both of those games are on the road.

Ryan Tannehill, an undervalued draft target for many, catches a break in Week 14 as Tennessee faces Jacksonville but then hits headwinds against Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Miami. Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield has road games against the Packers and Steelers. Carson Wentz only plays one problematic defense, New England, but it comes right after his owners have to work around the Colts’ Week 14 bye.

Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, Miami’s Tua Tagavoiloa, and New England’s Cam Newton and Mac Jones also have that week off, so gamers should plan accordingly.

Running Back

Good Matchups

Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne may be headed for some form of a timeshare with James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. Regardless, the versatile first-round draft pick should get a heavy workload and the endgame appears bullish for any Jag toting the rock. The team has three juicy matchups for runners, including Houston, which surrendered a league-high 26.7 fake points a game to the position. Tennessee and New England also gave up above-average tallies, 21.1 and 19.1, respectively.

Denver’s running back depth chart is murky as well, with Melvin Gordon III facing a possible suspension over a DUI arrest and trying to fend off second-round draft choice Javonte Williams. One thing that’s set, however, is a gentle playoff schedule. Two of the Broncos’ opponents, the Lions and Raiders, allowed the second and fourth-most points against the position.

Jonathan Taylor, a hot commodity after coming on strong in the second half of his rookie campaign, will be itching to take on Las Vegas and the Patriots. The only downside is that Week 14 bye for Indianapolis.

Not So Good Matchups

Miles Sanders, seen by some as a third-year breakout candidate, could be in a pickle as the Eagles are also off during Week 14, then encounter Washington twice in a three-week span. The Football Team held runners to 15.3 points a game, ranking among their toughest foes.

McCaffrey, the consensus No. 1 overall pick in fantasy, has three hard matchups in the offing – Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and New Orleans – though that’s a problem most managers would just as soon embrace. Each of Carolina’s NFC South rivals was among the top four teams in stifling running backs, and the Bucs gave up the fewest fantasy points of anyone against the position, 13.7 on average. To be sure, those defenses benefited from McCaffrey, you know, missing most of the season with injuries.

The second overall pick in fantasy, Dalvin Cook, and another first-rounder, Ezekiel Elliott, have uphill playoff schedules as well, though the former, at least, is also far too talented to downgrade. The Vikings face the Steelers, Bears, and Rams. The Cowboys have a pair of late matchups with Washington, which held Elliott to a combined 75 rushing yards in last season’s two games.

Runners on a break when the playoffs begin include Miami’s Myles Gaskin and New England’s Damien Harris.

Wide Receiver

Good Matchups

Washington’s Terry McLaurin is already becoming a popular third-round draft target based on two years of solid production combined with the QB upgrade to Fitzpatrick. A made-to-order playoff schedule is just another reason to put a star next to his name.

NFL schedulers may have had TV ratings in mind when they handed the Football Team alternating matchups against the Cowboys and Eagles over Weeks 14-17. Shootouts should be in store, as those defenses gave up 28.7 and 26.8 fantasy points per game to receivers, the second and sixth-highest totals, respectively. Stacking McLaurin with Fitzpatrick could bring a jackpot when this cakewalk rolls around.

Washington’s No. 2 receiver, free-agent signee Curtis Samuel, is the other clear beneficiary. He lacks McLaurin’s ceiling but may offer sneaky value at a cheaper draft cost.

Pass catchers in San Francisco get a late lift too, with three contests against beatable defenses. Sophomore Brandon Aiyuk and third-year man Deebo Samuel will square off against Atlanta, Tennessee, and Houston. The Falcons, Titans, and Texans allowed the third, fourth, and seventh-highest fantasy totals to receivers.

For both the Football Team and the Niners, the No. 3 receiver spot is up for grabs, so managers should watch those position battles. The winners might gain fantasy relevance as the year progresses.

Not-So-Good Matchups

Minnesota has the nastiest stretch for receivers, spelling a challenge for second-year darling Justin Jefferson and steady vet Adam Thielen. The Vikes take on the Bears, Rams, and Packers -- the three toughest opponents against the position -- with winter weather a potential factor in Chicago and Green Bay. Led by All-Pros Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles kept the position to 16.5 fantasy points per game.

The scenario isn’t much rosier for Philadelphia’s DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor. As Washington was in the top quartile at thwarting receivers, two tilts against the Football Team plus a bye adds up to trouble.

The Cowboys also play Washington twice, though CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup won’t have to sit out Week 14. The Football Team may pose less of an obstacle for Cooper, who racked up more than 200 combined receiving yards in last year’s two games against Washington.

Resistance awaits Cincinnati and Tampa Bay receivers. Bengals WRs Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and speedy rookie Ja’Marr Chase have to face Denver and Kansas City, while the Buccaneers' Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown must battle Buffalo and Carolina.

Other receivers with Week 14 byes include Miami’s DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and Jaylen Waddle, Indianapolis’s Michael Pittman Jr., T.Y. Hilton, and Parris Campbell, and New England’s Nelson Agholor, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, and N’Keal Harry.

Tight End

Good Matchups

George Kittle could be mauling through secondaries late in the year provided he can stay healthy. Though his earlier matchups are thorny, the beastly Niner gets a nice playoff setup with Cincinnati and Atlanta, two of the six softest opponents for tight ends.

Robert Tonyan, Mark Andrews, Rob Gronkowski, Evan Engram, and Eric Ebron also have paths to piling up points. Tonyan plays Chicago and Cleveland, two of the five most benign defenses for the position. Andrews can feast on the Browns and Bengals, though the Packers present a problem. Gronk has to cope with the Saints but also gets the Jets -- who permitted tight ends a league-high 12.2 fantasy points a game -- and the Bills. If their owners make it that far, the Giants’ Engram and the Steelers’ Ebron could pay off in title week when New York faces the Bears while Pittsburgh plays Cleveland.

Carolina has been a wasteland for tight ends but Dan Arnold, assuming he beats out Ian Thomas, kicks off the fake playoffs with plus matchups against Atlanta and Buffalo.

Not-So-Good Matchups

The late calendar looks ugly for Cleveland’s Austin Hooper and Indy’s duo of Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. The Browns face Pittsburgh, which allowed a league-low 4.7 fantasy points a game to the position, and Green Bay. The Colts start with a bye and then play the Pats, one of the best tight end suppressers.

Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert, Miami’s Mike Gesicki, and New England’s tandem of Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are also sidelined for Week 14.

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