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This summer, I modeled the upcoming NFL season and projected how many tackles, interceptions, and sacks each defensive unit should be projected to amass in 2022. I accounted for 2020 and 2021 performance by each team themselves and the offenses they are facing this year.
When making predictions for IDP units, you should consider both the talent level of an individual team’s defense as a whole and the talent of its own offense, as well as that of its opponents.
A defense will face more rushing plays when they are that team is trailing, and it will face more passing plays when it is leading. Rushing plays will typically lead to more tackle opportunities, especially from middle linebackers. Passing plays are better for defensive backs.
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LBs on Bad Teams That Rack Up Tackles
Linebacker is the highest-scoring position in most IDP formats. One archetype you should be actively looking for is the star linebacker on a team with mediocre defense and a poor offense. See C.J. Mosley, Foye Oluokun, Bobby Wagner, and Jordyn Brooks. The Jets, Falcons, and Seahawks were trailing most of the season, so it comes as no surprise that their teams all ranked in the top five for opponents' rushing attempts against them, and they all ranked in the top four in combined tackles.
That's one reason I am not confident about Wagner's fantasy value in Los Angeles, while I am more confident Oluokun will continue to put up big tackle numbers in Jacksonville.
Volume is a huge factor in fantasy football, especially when it comes to IDP, but the quality of the opposing offenses also factors into evaluating the likelihood of an IDP making big plays. It’s going to be easier for a Ravens cornerback to pick off passes from Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, and whoever starts for the Steelers than it will be for a Bears CB going up against Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and Jared Goff six times a year.
Following are some defensive units and IDP who will be facing heavy snap volume, questionable quarterbacks, and swiss cheese offensive lines.
Bengals DBs Face High Volume
The offenses the Bengals face in 2022 are expected to throw the ball at the highest rate of all opposing offenses. Non-division opponents include the Buccaneers, Cowboys, Bills, Chiefs, Dolphins, and Jets. Add in two games each against divisional foes Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and ten of their games are against opponents that ranked in the top 13 in pass attempts in 2021.
The Browns, while not throwing the ball around as much, do have a poor-quality quarterback behind center for the first 11 games of the year. Overall, the Bengals could be facing 15 percent more pass attempts in 2022 than in 2021.
That bodes well for Cincinnati defenders like S Jessie Bates III, S Vonn Bell, CB Chidobe Auzie, and LB Logan Wilson. While the Bengals are expected to rank in the bottom half of the league in opponents’ rushing attempts, which will deprive Wilson of tackle opportunities, he is good at making picks.
Honorable mentions: Other AFC North DBs. Each team in the AFC North faces each other twice and the Bucs once. While Burrow is a top quarterback, he did throw interceptions at a relatively high rate last season. Brady has a low interception rate, but his volume is so high he still ends up with double-digit interceptions thrown in a season.
Rams DL Faces Weak Offensive Lines
The Rams’ opposing quarterbacks are expected to get sacked at a rate of over seven percent of all passing attempts, the fourth highest in my projections. Not only will their opponents be sacked at a high rate, but the Rams will also face more passing plays than they did last year.
Amongst the teams with bottom-half offensive lines on the Rams schedule are the Bills (20th best O-line in PFF rankings), Saints (21st), Panthers (24th), Cardinals (twice, 25th), Falcons (28th), Raiders (29th), and Seahawks (twice, 32nd). Give Aaron Donald and A'Shawn Robinson a boost in your rankings.
Saints DBs to Feast on Turnover Prone QBs
While the Bengals defensive backs face a favorable schedule due to volume, the Saints' DBs are salivating over the young and poor-quality passers they are going to be facing. Start inside their own division: Atlanta, whose veteran QB Marcus Mariota threw interceptions at an above-average rate of 2.5% in Tennessee and got worse in Vegas; and Carolina, whose reckless starter Baker Mayfield chucks the ball to opposing DBs 2.9% of the time.
Both have rookie QBs who probably won’t start but could help out IDP managers if they get the chance. Add in non-division opponents like the Seahawks (Geno Smith, 3.7%), 49ers (Trey Lance, 2.8%), Steelers (Mitchell Trubisky, 2.4%), Rams (Matt Stafford, 2.4%), Ravens (Lamar Jackson, 2.3%), Bengals (Burrow, 2.1%), and Saints DBs could have a feast. I am projecting CB Marshon Lattimore and S Tyrann Mathieu to rank in the top ten for interceptions.
Overall Projections
Most Rushing Plays Faced
- New York Giants
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Atlanta Falcons
- Dallas Cowboys
- Detroit Lions
Most Team Sacks
- Chicago Bears
- Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- San Francisco 49ers
Most Team Interceptions
- Dallas Cowboys
- New England Patriots
- Buffalo Bills
- New Orleans Saints
- Los Angeles Rams
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