RADIO
Last year about this time, I challenged myself to ask the question about fantasy players: do I believe something, or can I prove it? The idea remains pretty simple, that its nearly impossible to really prove something about a guy only two weeks in, and that if you can somehow prove it now, it's imperative to act on it. In my previewing the year columns, I suggested some guys I believed could really see a breakout given their offenses: players including OJ Howard, Tyrod Taylor, and Tyler Boyd among others, the latter of which I was outbid on by about $40 in a keeper league this week. For some, I could point out the exact reason they'd see better numbers in 2018, such as OJ Howard's increased snap count in the preseason compared to Cameron Brate. For others, like Boyd, I saw potential and a very small sample size, and said that he could be a bit player, something I clearly underestimated.
So two weeks in, it's worth asking yourself again, what numbers are worth believing in and what numbers will be asterisks that are coupled with footnotes at the end of 2018 season. For every recommendation I made for Zay Jones, I also pointed to Davante Adams early target numbers as a must FLEX. In 2018, I like Stefon Diggs, but my hunch of regression from that low-end WR1/high end RB2 position of the draft is supported by a pretty low yards after catch average (6 yards?!) but little else. Meanwhile, I look at Emmanuel Sanders, one of the few players averaging over a hundred yards per game in terms of receptions, and think that he may arguably be a buy-low after two straight games where Denver struggled to produce offensively.
In a week where the top waiver targets were guys like Ryan Fitzpatrick and Giovani Bernard, it's a good idea to remember that some of these guys are trending, while others are simply trending.
Week 3 Pop Quiz
For everyone new to this column, I'm highlighting running backs and wide receivers for the 2 and 3 slot, and a tight end slightly outside of the normal top-eight. You won't see anyone named Gurley or Beckham Jr. here, but more of guys who are likely on your bench or in some cases on waivers, and why they might be a good fit this week specifically.
Quarterback Questions
There's really no excuse not to stream __________ this week
A: Jimmy Garoppolo
B: Derek Carr
C: Dak Prescott
D: Case Keenum
He's being started in a fourth of leagues after being considered a savior to a lot of fantasy teams that waited on quarterback, but it's far too early to give up on Jimmy Garoppolo now. While I'm a little more bearish on also playing guys like Pierre Garcon or Dante Pettis alongside him, Jimmy Garoppolo is playing a Kansas City Chiefs team that has been giving up three touchdowns per game like clockwork. If you're in a league without an obvious QB starter or a bad matchup, Garoppolo is going to have to play fast and from behind, and that means a Bortles-esque garbage time performance like we haven't seen in quite some time. I mean, if you don't count Maholmes trying to outpace his bad defense all game.
Running Back Questions
Against all odds, should you take a look at ___________ as an RB1 now?
A: Bilal Powell
B: Austin Ekeler
C: James White
D: Carlos Hyde
You're looking at four guys who'll be played in a lot of fantasy leagues this weekend, especially from guys who may have dealt with an injury or the unique contract holdout. The one who I'm actually confident in as an RB1 is James White. Being targeted on nearly 40% of routes. Against a Lions defense who have given up three touchdowns to running backs in two weeks. Fantasy owners are keeping an eye on the door in case Sony Michel comes out of the woodwork and does something with his one-week-in share of carries, but this week should be a very big James White game.
Wide Receiver Questions
_______ is this week's Marvin Jones Jr.
A: Jarius Wright
B: Amari Cooper
C: Devin Funchess
D: Corey Davis
I'm going out on a very big limb and recommending Corey Davis vs the league's best defense, and it's all thanks to the Patriots, uh, loss vs the Jaguars. Seriously, how could you watch the great dynasty of the 21st century get dismantled by Blake Bortles and think that you have to start this guy? Well, given that Davis is the most dropped receiver in the top-50 guys at the position, there are plenty of teams that aren't even ok keeping him on their bench. Consider this; Davis is in the top-20 receivers through the first two weeks in terms of targets, despite being one of only a handful that hasn't seen the end-zone yet. Davis may not seem like a surefire candidate to find the pylon vs the Jaguars, but even the Patriots put up two touchdowns on this defense through the air last week, and there's quietly some shootout potential here. Davis may not win you a league in the first two WR slots, but he's a high enough floor FLEX that if he finds the paint, he could help push you over the line.
Tight End Question
This week I believe in the resurgence of _________
A: Trey Burton
B: Jake Butt
C: George Kittle
D: Tyler Eifert
Clearly, Trey Burton's name stands out here, but this is about where Burton ranks after two weeks of not-so-great offensive production, so fantasy players have a legitimate gripe in not starting a guy they thought would be a serious sleeper. Chicago vs Arizona isn't exactly primetime viewing, and Trubisky is having a hard time moving the ball into scoring position consistently. But consider that Arizona is one of the only defenses whose given up touchdowns to tight ends each game they've played so far, Nagy is likely game-planning for Burton to see a bit more production than in weeks where defenses made the middle of the field a bit more. It's finally time for Burton to shine... hopefully.
