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Welcome to the fantasy football playoff finals! Congratulations to all of those that made it to the big dance!
Last week, we highlighted Ronald Jones II, Devin Singletary, and Isaiah McKenzie as risers and Myles Gaskin, Jerry Jeudy, and AJ Dillon as fallers. Some other calls didn't quite work out, particularly Tyler Johnson as one of our favorite risers. But, let's move forward into championship week to see if we can help you win a ring!
As a reminder, in this weekly column, we'll look at players whose arrows may be pointing up, and players whose arrows may be pointing down based on the previous week's games. We'll try not to overreact, but instead, use relevant data to make informed decisions about these players. Here are the key risers and fallers heading into Week 17 of the NFL season.
Fantasy Football Risers for Week 17
Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
Palmer has made the most of his opportunity the last three weeks with both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missing time due to COVID protocols. In Week 14 without Allen, Palmer led all Charger pass-catchers with a 23.3% target share. He played on 90% of the snaps and ran a season-high 29 routes in that game. He turned his seven targets into a line of 5-66-1. His role diminished in Week 15 with both Allen and Williams back in the mix but regained a full-time role in Week 16 when Big Mike went on the COVID list. In that one, Palmer went for 5-43-1 on six targets. He ran a new season-high 37 routes on a new-season high 98% snap share. He essentially never came off the field with Williams out of the lineup. With Williams also set to miss Week 17, look for Palmer to continue asserting himself late in his rookie campaign. It doesn't hurt that Justin Herbert looked his way in the red zone four times in Weeks 14 and 16.
Elijah Moore, New York Jets
Elijah Moore, huh? Yup, that's right. He hasn't played since Week 13 after suffering a quadriceps injury, but he's slated to come off Injured Reserve in time for the Jets' Week 17 game vs. the Buccaneers. Head coach Robert Saleh was confident he'd return for the team's last two games of the season, and here we are. The issue now is that Moore finds himself on the reserve/COVID-19 list as well, so he'll have to clear through that in order to play in Week 17. If, and that's a big "IF," he can play this week, he finds himself in a great spot. In the two games prior to his injury, Moore was playing an average of 88% of the snaps and saw 10 targets per game from Zach Wilson. We all know the Bucs are impossible to run on and the Jets figure to play from behind for the majority of this game. Without Corey Davis, Wilson should pepper Elijah Moore with targets in this one.
Boston Scott, Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders has already been ruled out for Week 17 and Jordan Howard is dealing with a stinger in his neck and may also be unavailable. That leaves Boston Scott to carry the load in a big game against the Washington Football Team, and Eagles Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen is "fully confident" in his abilities.
And Scott is no stranger to being called upon in big moments for this Eagles team. Sanders has now missed eight games the last two seasons and Scott has filled in admirably in those games. This season, the Eagles have had the luxury of utilizing both Howard and Scott in tandem when Sanders has been out, but last season when Sanders missed games, it was mostly Scott shouldering the load. In fact, he had 17 or more opportunities in three of four games as the starter. Even if Howard is able to suit up, Scott should be the favorite to lead the backfield in fantasy points due to his abilities as a pass-catcher.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Alex Collins was a healthy scratch in Week 16, which meant we were on the verge of full-time Rashaad Penny. He didn't disappoint fantasy managers that put their faith in him in the Seattle snow, rushing 17 times for 135 yards and a score. After an injury-plagued start to his career, Penny has eclipsed 100 yards rushing in two of his last three games. He has also found paydirt three times in those two games. In Week 17, he'll face the Detroit Lions, who allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game (127.3). With Seattle being a seven-point favorite in that game, Penny should be ranked as a low-end RB1 and should flirt with another 100 yards and a touchdown on the ground. He's carrying fantasy teams in the playoffs and could be one of the best pickups of the season.
Other Risers: Trey Lance, Darrel Williams, Michael Carter, Rex Burkhead, K.J. Osborn
Fantasy Football Fallers for Week 17
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
All signs point to Trey Lance starting in Week 17 with Jimmy Garoppolo nursing a thumb injury he suffered in last week's game. Lance has played in two games thus far his rookie season, back in Weeks 4 and 5. In those two games, Aiyuk caught just three total passes for 47 yards on seven targets (3.5 per game). Lance ran 16 times in the game he started and seven times in the game he entered at halftime. His dual-threat ability adds another dimension to the 49ers' already explosive offense, but it likely caps the ceiling of a guy like Brandon Aiyuk.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
Since Week 12, Terry McLaurin has been nearly unplayable, yet fantasy managers continue to roll him out there on a weekly basis hoping for the best from their second or third-round pick this season. He hasn't had 51 receiving yards in each of his last five games and is averaging just five targets per game over that stretch. Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, and Garrett Gilbert just haven't gotten the job done lately for the Washington Football Team. Now, McLaurin gets a matchup with lockdown corner Darius Slay, who held him to just two catches for 51 yards on four targets in Week 15.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
Parker was completely non-existent in Jaylen Waddle's return after missing Week 15 due to COVID. He played on 71% of the snaps but didn't see a single ball thrown his way by Tua Tagovailoa. In his last two games played with Waddle, he's averaging just 2.5 targets and 31 yards per game (after his goose egg in Week 16). As long as Waddle and Mike Gesicki are both active, Parker isn't likely to see enough volume to be viable in Week 17 with the Dolphins projected to score just under 19 points.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Sure, the Giants got blown out 34-10 by the Eagles in Week 16, but we can't ignore the fact that Saquon Barkley has seen a decreasing snap share over the last three weeks. That culminated in him playing on just 34% of the snaps last week. In his last three games, he's averaging just a 49.3% snap share. As long as the Giants continue to lose ball games and have trouble moving the football up and down the field, Barkley will likely continue to lose work to fellow running back Devontae Booker. The Giants have an implied point total of just 16 points in Week 17 against the Bears and have scored just one total touchdown the past two weeks.
Other Fallers: D'Onta Foreman, Van Jefferson, Emmanuel Sanders, Jonnu Smith
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