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In what turned out to be a very poor decision, surefire Day Two NFL Draft pick Chuba Hubbard returned to college for his senior season and torpedoed his draft stock with a truly dismal season. Hubbard fell into the fourth round where he was drafted by the Carolina Panthers.
When evaluating prospects' likelihood of NFL success, we care about three things:
1. College performance
2. Athletic measurables
3. Draft capital
Today, we'll look at the redraft and dynasty value of running back Chuba Hubbard following his selection in the NFL Draft.
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College Performance
Hubbard redshirted his freshman season at Oklahoma State, which is never encouraging, but he was given the keys to the offense his junior year and delivered a truly transcendent season. Hubbard posted 2,094 rushing yards on 328 carries. He scored 21 touchdowns and had an 8.6% target share. Hubbard looked poised to take the NFL by storm as a rookie in 2020.
I can't imagine Hubbard doesn't regret returning for his senior season. Hubbard only played seven games in a COVID shortened season and recorded just 625 yards and eight touchdowns. Even if you double his numbers to project for a full season, he comes nowhere near his 2019 performance. As a result, Hubbard fell to the fourth round.
When analyzing a prospect's ceiling, we look at his best college season, which for Hubbard, was his junior season. At the very least, we know the upside is there. His senior season does cast doubt on how likely he is to reach it, though.
Athletic Measurables
At 6'0, 208 lbs, Hubbard has the size to be a three-down back in the NFL. Below are his workout metrics from playerprofiler.com.
He has relatively average speed and above-average burst, but subpar agility, which suggests he's more of a straight-line runner. Give Hubbard a hole and he can fly through it, but ask him to juke around linemen or avoid linebackers, and he may have some trouble.
Rookie Season Outlook
Getting drafted to the Panthers gives Hubbard zero hope of winning a meaningful role. Christian McCaffrey is not going anywhere and even if the Panthers choose to reduce his workload in an effort to keep him healthy, Hubbard is not seeing more than a 20-25% opportunity share. That is not enough to have fantasy value.
With that being said, this landing spot is actually pretty good for Hubbard. There is no ambiguity in the Panthers' backfield. CMC is the top dog and Hubbard is almost certainly going to be the backup. That means Hubbard is one of the few clear handcuffs that we know will see volume in the event of an injury to the starter.
Should something happen to McCaffrey like it did last season, Hubbard can easily meet or exceed what Mike Davis was able to do in McCaffrey's stead. Hubbard has a 0% chance at standalone value, but he belongs on the redraft radar as the primary beneficiary of a CMC injury.
Long-Term Outlook
With McCaffrey entering the second year of a four-year contract and still just 25 years old, Hubbard is trapped behind him for the foreseeable future. It is extremely unlikely that Hubbard ever matters beyond filling in for McCaffrey if he gets hurt. McCaffrey isn't going anywhere and neither is Hubbard. He would do well to have a similar career like what we've seen from someone like Alexander Mattison operating behind Dalvin Cook. When called upon, Hubbard, like Mattison, will be capable of producing at RB1/2 levels, but he will always take a back seat once the starter returns.
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