RADIO
The Jets were one of a number of teams pegged to take a day two running back that either waited until day three or did not take one altogether. With their first pick in the fourth round, the Jets selected North Carolina running back Michael Carter.
When evaluating prospects' likelihood of NFL success, we care about three things:
1. College performance
2. Athletic measurables
3. Draft capital
College Performance
Although he played four years in college, Carter broke out as a true freshman. Over the course of his college career, he averaged 8.0 yards per carry and posted a respectable 8.4% college target share. In 2020, he was 14th in the nation with 4.47 yards after contact per carry.
When analyzing a prospect's ceiling, we look at his best college season, which for Carter, was his senior season where he recorded 1,245 yards and 11 touches on 156 carries. He did this despite sharing a backfield with a second-round pick, Javonte Williams. Given the caliber of his college teammate, Carter's production is more impressive. There is nothing in his collegiate profile that suggests he can't produce at the NFL level.
Athletic Measurables
At 5'8, 201 lbs, Carter does not have the physical profile of a between-the-tackles runner or a three-down workhorse. He's not particularly fast, running just a 4.59 adjusted 40-time, but he's extremely shifty, posting a 98th percentile agility score. Carter is the type of guy you want to get in space and let him make defenders miss.
It may feel like a lazy comparison, but Carter really does remind me a bit of fellow Carolina alum Giovani Bernard. Carter would do well to have a career as good as Bernard's.
Rookie Season Outlook
The Jets return La'Mical Perine, who was a fourth-round pick last season, and Ty Johnson, who is a former sixth-round pick. Perine had a handful of games as the primary back, but couldn't manage to surpass 40 yards rushing in any of them, including a game where he saw a 70% snap share. Johnson, on the other hand, smashed in his one game as the feature back, posting RB1 numbers with 104 yards on 22 carries with a touchdown.
From a draft capital perspective, though, Carter is already ahead of both of them. The Jets signed 28-year-old Tevin Coleman, but Coleman has flopped every time he's been given a feature role and has struggled to stay on the field throughout his career.
The Jets upgraded at quarterback and head coach, jettisoning Sam Darnold and Adam Gase in favor of Zach Wilson and Robert Saleh, and they've now dedicated consecutive first-round picks to building their offensive line. All things considered, this is not a bad landing spot for Carter. Day three picks rarely make any sort of headway in the NFL, but Carter has as good of a shot as anyone to buck that trend.
Long-Term Outlook
Carter's long-term outlook depends heavily on how his new coach views him. Carter's fantasy ceiling will always be no higher than RB2 because of his size, but that would be a massive success if he could pull that off. Coleman will most likely be the starter with either Perine or Johnson as the change of pace back, but Carter could work his way into that role either via performance or injury.
There's a decent chance that once Carter gets an opportunity, he seizes it and carves out a 10-12 touch-a-game role. That's nothing to write home about, but it's nothing to scoff at either, especially for a fourth-round pick.
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