RADIO
Every week, this column will spotlight the first-year players who are ripe for a breakout performance. Oftentimes, rookies can provide some of the most value as under-the-radar options.
Last Sunday, New York Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson turned in the best performance of his career so far. His 297 yards, 61.8 completion percentage, and 8.7 yards per attempt were all the best marks that he has achieved in the NFL. While the second-overall pick from BYU helped his team get their first win of the year, other rookie passers like Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence also played well despite losses. Wilson, Jones, and Lawrence all had at least arguably their best games as pros. Clearly, first-year players are capable of improving quickly.
For dynasty leagues, this column should help identify ideal trade targets and prized stashes. For redraft managers, this column could provide the edge necessary for a championship run. Most of the players in this week's article are well-known, but a few are sneaky sleepers.
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The Anticipated Athlete
Trey Lance (QB, SF)
This year's third-overall pick, Lance saw only limited action in his first three NFL appearances. While most of his snaps came in the red zone to start the season, Lance finally saw his chance to truly shine last week. When San Francisco's starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo went down with a calf injury against Seattle, Lance came in and quickly threw a 76-touchdown to a wide-open Deebo Samuel.
DEEBO IS WIDE OPEN.
Trey Lance finds him for the 76-yard TD! #FTTB
?: #SEAvsSF on FOX
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/9BRzRkYRNU— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2021
Garoppolo has not practiced all week, suggesting that Lance is about to make his first start since going from North Dakota State to the 49ers. The rookie finished Week 4 as the QB14 despite only having 25 combined passing and rushing attempts. Now, with an opportunity to lead the offense on every play on every drive, Lance has an incredible amount of upside. At the same time, most of his fantasy production came as a result of the above busted coverage; regardless, his rushing prowess will provide a solid floor for fantasy managers. The 4-0 Cardinals have been somewhat tough against fantasy QBs this season, but Lance should still be under strong consideration to be included in your starting lineup.
The Usage Fiend
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
With Diontae Johnson, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Chase Claypool all missing key time and snaps for the Steelers recently due to injuries, Harris stepped up in a massive way in the passing game. While the rookie from Alabama has had just 102 yards on the ground in his last two games, he has put up 20 catches on a ridiculous 26 targets for 131 yards through the air in that same time span. Harris has the most routes run, most receptions, and highest target share among running backs, making him one of fantasy football's top receiving backs so far. This usage has made the first-round rookie the RB4 in PPR formats. Since an inefficient debut, Harris has finished as a top-8 RB in PPR each week. This weekend, we will see an unstoppable force meet an immovable object; Harris will face a Broncos defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the league.
The Shifty Fill-In
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
For the second consecutive season, fantasy football darling Christian McCaffrey has missed time with an injury. McCaffrey's 2020 backup, Mike Davis, finished as the RB12 in PPR formats due to the star's absence; now, rookie Chuba Hubbard is attempting to replicate that success. Hubbard turned in a solid showing after McCaffrey's departure in Week 3, finishing with 14 touches for 79 scrimmage yards, and in Week 4 he had 71 scrimmage yards on 15 touches.
?? Chuba Hubbard put in work for the Panthers tonight ?
(?: @NFLCanada) pic.twitter.com/s5N90daJ8V
— TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 24, 2021
The fourth-round selection from Oklahoma State will be facing a Philadelphia defense that has been run over the last two weeks. The Eagles have allowed a combined 360 rushing yards over their two most recent games. Carolina's starting running back role is a lucrative spot for fantasy regardless of who occupies it, and Hubbard is in a prime position to capitalize this week. Hubbard was the top waiver-wire target last week, so many fantasy managers will be keenly watching how he performs.
The Solid Rapport
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
When Chase was drafted to Cincinnati this past spring, the top storyline was his reunion with Joe Burrow, his quarterback in college. It turns out that their old relationship has carried over into the pros. Chase has totaled 17 receptions for 297 yards and four touchdowns through four games, good enough to make him the WR6 in standard leagues. Any talk of dropped passes from the preseason dissipated long ago.
Rookie Ja’Marr Chase BACK TO BACK weeks with a touchdown ? (via @NFLBrasil) pic.twitter.com/k1F0FlwUAb
— Overtime (@overtime) September 19, 2021
With his Bengals teammate Tee Higgins expected to return to action against Green Bay this week, Chase will have his target share eaten into a little bit. However, his production should not be affected too much. In two games with Higgins, Chase made seven catches on 11 targets for 155 yards and two touchdowns; with Higgins out, Chase caught 10 balls on 14 looks for 142 yards and two scores. Expect Chase's fantasy output to remain steady even with Higgins healthy. Plug him into your lineup as a WR2 against the Packers.
The Rising Asset
Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG)
Prior to last week, Toney had received very little attention in fantasy circles, and understandably so. The 20th overall pick out of Florida had made just four catches for 14 yards in three games. However, everything changed last week when he made six grabs for 78 yards. With two key Giants' wideouts, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton, once again sidelined this week due to injuries, Toney should see the target share to reproduce that performance. The rookie's snap share has increased each week so far, as have his route counts. New York is getting him more involved in their offense, partially out of necessity. Dallas has the fourth-leakiest defense against wide receivers through four games, so Toney's stock will likely rise further by this time next week. Dynasty managers should be looking to acquire Toney, and redraft leaguers snagging him off of waivers would be a good move as well.
The Future Superstar
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Billed as a generational tight end talent, Pitts has been somewhat disappointing four weeks into his career. He did have a solid five-reception, 73-yard performance against Tampa Bay in Week 2, but his other three showings have been fairly quiet. Notably, however, Pitts saw his highest target count last week at nine despite making just four catches. He also had a career-high in air yards by a noticeable margin (85 yards versus 60). The Florida product's time is coming, and it could come as soon as this week; Atlanta will be without both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage against the New York Jets. It's fair to assume Pitts will surpass double-digit targets for the first time in his young career. With him running a 4,44 40-yard dash at 6'6", 245 pounds, he would do a lot of damage with that degree of volume. Get up early to catch his game in London this Sunday.
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