RADIO
Every week, this column will spotlight the first-year players who are ripe for a breakout performance. Oftentimes, rookies can provide some of the most value as under-the-radar options.
Last week was perhaps the best in the history of this column. The six rookies featured here for Week 5 averaged 23.48 PPR points. Most notably, Giants wideout Kadarius Toney was correctly identified as a rising talent before he went off for 10 receptions and 189 yards. Steelers running back Najee Harris, Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts, Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, and 49ers quarterback Trey Lance all turned in excellent fantasy performances as well.
For dynasty leagues, this column should help identify ideal trade targets and prized stashes. For redraft managers, this column could provide the edge necessary for a championship run. Most of the players in this week's article are well-known, but a few are sneaky sleepers.
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The Stride Finder
Davis Mills (QB, HOU)
A third-round pick out of Stanford this past spring, Davis Mills had been having a miserable start to his career. Through his first three starts, Mills threw 67 passes for 357 yards, two touchdowns, and five picks. However, the rookie turned it around last week against Bill Belichick and the Patriots, tossing the ball 29 times for 312 yards, three scores, and no interceptions.
Davis Mills zips it between defenders for 6️⃣! #WeAreTexans
?: #NEvsHOU on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/Xgqd7HwLdj— NFL (@NFL) October 10, 2021
Coming off of his best game so far as a professional, Mills will have an opportunity to build on his momentum against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts allowed Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to throw for 442 yards last Monday; his previous career high was 324 yards. Clearly, the Indianapolis pass defense is reeling, especially coming off of a short week. Watch to see if Mills can expand upon his effort from last week.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
To this point, neither of the top tailbacks on Denver has run away with the lead role. Williams, a second-round rookie, has 65 touches through five weeks, whereas veteran runner Melvin Gordon has amassed 70 touches. Williams will have a strong opportunity to change that situation this Sunday, however. Gordon has been limited at practice for a few weeks now with a leg injury, and while it did not seem to hamper him too much in last week's game, at some point the missed reps will add up. Moreover, Denver's front office clearly anticipated Williams taking over sooner rather than later when they spent a second-rounder on him. Regardless, with a matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders on tap, both Denver backs have a chance to gash a team that just lost their head coach due to a scandal. The Raiders have yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs so far as it is.
The Sudden Gem
Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI)
With Chicago running back David Montgomery stuck on injured reserve, most expected Damien Williams to fill in as the starter for the team. Khalil Herbert was a big factor in the game plan though; indeed, Herbert even had two more carries than Williams, although he did gain fewer scrimmage yards by a margin of 84 to 75.
This week, another big twist struck the fantasy world, as Williams tested positive for COVID-19. Herbert should see an even larger workload this week than last week as a result, especially given that Chicago runs the ball the eighth-most often in the league. The sixth-round pick out of Virginia Tech will be looking to turn his solid performance from Week 5 into a monstrous one against Green Bay. With the number of carries that are now up for grabs with Montgomery and Williams absent, such a showing is a strong possibility.
The Slowing Speedster
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle began the season seeing quite a few targets, averaging nine a game through the first three weeks. His peak usage came in Week 3 when he caught 12 of 13 looks, albeit for a mere 58 yards. That type of volume has since tapered off, though, as Waddle has seen just 10 targets in the last two games combined. The rookie from Alabama will be trying to regain his early target share against Jacksonville in London on Sunday morning. Even if he does not though, he should still be capable of doing damage. The sixth-overall pick in the 2021 draft, Waddle came equipped with 4.32 40-yard dash speed, and he averaged 20 yards per catch in college. Surprisingly, the Jaguars have been above average defending against wide receivers fantasy-wise, but they have gotten burned by the likes of Courtland Sutton and Christian Kirk. Watch the Dolphins face the Jags to see if Waddle can regain his footing after a slight slump.
The Debut Darling
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
After missing the first five games of the season due to a groin injury, Rashod Bateman is all set to make his NFL debut Sunday in a high-leverage game against the Chargers. The impressive first-round talent from Minnesota is joining the active lineup at the right time; his QB, Lamar Jackson, just achieved his first 400-yard passing performance, and teammate Sammy Watkins is out with a hamstring injury. Bateman will reportedly not be "thrown into the fire" immediately upon his return, but in college, he was used to being very involved. In fact, his target share as a Golden Gopher was at the 98th percentile for receiver prospects. If the rookie is a larger part of the game plan than previously expected, his debut will be can't-miss viewing.
The Touchdown Taker
Tommy Tremble (TE, CAR)
Tommy Tremble is probably not on the radar for many fantasy managers, but perhaps he should be as a deep sleeper. Tremble has finished as a top-12 tight end in standard scoring leagues in two of the past three weeks, although his performances were admittedly carried by the touchdowns that he scored.
BIG TOMMY TREMBLE FAN!
?: FOX pic.twitter.com/1Je1LiW7Ux
— Carolina Panthers (@Panthers) October 10, 2021
The most important aspect of Tremble's recent games, though, is that four of his six targets this year came last week versus Philadelphia. The fact that Carolina is getting their third-round pick from Notre Dame more involved is promising for his fantasy outlook. The rookie is definitely not worth having on your team now, but keep an eye on his usage this Sunday versus the Minnesota Vikings.
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