RADIO
Every week, this column will spotlight the first-year players who are ripe for a breakout performance. Oftentimes, rookies can provide some of the most value as under-the-radar options.
Last week, several rookies had high-quality performances. Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase continued his rapid ascent into the league's upper echelon of wideouts by making eight receptions for 201 yards and a touchdown. Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts dominated the Dolphins, piling up 163 receiving yards. First-year running backs Elijah Mitchell and Khalil Herbert both ran for 100-plus yards for their respective teams. The 2021 draft class is already shaping up to be a strong one, both for the NFL and for fantasy.
For dynasty leagues, this column should help identify ideal trade targets and prized stashes. For redraft managers, this column could provide the edge necessary for a championship run. Most of the players in this week's article are well-known, but a few are sneaky sleepers.
The Chosen One
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Well before the 2021 draft cycle began, Trevor Lawrence was touted as the next big thing in the NFL. However, through the first four weeks of his career, his luscious hair was more impressive than his play. After having just one top-20 QB finish in his first four starts, Lawrence put together two consecutive strong performances heading into Jacksonville's bye week. Finishing as the QB9 and QB16 in Week 5 and Week 6, respectively, this year's first-overall pick will look to keep the momentum going on Sunday versus Seattle. Jacksonville's offense does provide some potential for Lawrence fantasy-wise; his completed air yards per attempt figure ranks ninth among passers with at least 50 attempts. He will have to do a better job of avoiding negative plays though, as his bad throw percentage is third-highest among qualifying passers.
The Valuable Backup
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
With star running back Christian McCaffrey missing significant time for the second consecutive year, the Panthers have once again turned to a backup to step up. Unlike Mike Davis last year, 2021’s fill-in, Chuba Hubbard, has been somewhat disappointing. The rookie out of Oklahoma State has struggled in the passing game, dropping six of 23 targets. He has also had just one goal-line carry, a fact that has severely limited his touchdown potential.
Still, Hubbard’s overall usage in McCaffrey’s absence makes him a valuable fantasy asset. The rookie has seen the 15th-most carries and 18th-most targets among running backs despite receiving little action the first two weeks. Moreover, the lack of goal-line usage should rectify itself soon; quarterback Sam Darnold has hawked several rushing touchdowns at the goal line from Carolina RBs this season. Consider Hubbard an RB2 with a great matchup this week against Atlanta.
The Hot Commodity
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI)
Kenneth Gainwell was the target of many waiver claims this week after teammate Miles Sanders went down with an injury. Gainwell, a rookie out of Memphis, already has three top-25 RB finishes to his name, including last week when he had 61 yards and a touchdown on just nine touches. He now steps into an offense that has not run the ball much, yet has been very effective when they have. Sanders gained 3.3 yards per carry before contact prior to his injury, the third-highest mark among qualifying running backs. This suggests that Philadelphia’s run blocking is more than enough to sustain high-level fantasy production at the running back position. The question is if the play-calling can facilitate big outputs; the Eagles average just 14 rushing attempts per game by running backs.
Gainwell will take on a downtrodden Detroit squad this week. As the Lions are winless, the game script may help Gainwell overcome the coaching staff and receive a lot of work on the ground. Watch to see how Gainwell performs in what should be his first start as a professional.
The Top-Tier Target
Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
In both training camp and the preseason, Bengals rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase received widespread criticism for his issues with dropping passes. No one is criticizing him now. Chase is currently the WR2 on the season with three top-six WR finishes, including his masterful showing against Baltimore last week. His 82-yard score was a thing of beauty, and it was already his sixth touchdown through seven games.
Ja'Marr Chase CANNOT BE STOPPED. #RuleTheJungle
?: #BALvsCIN on CBS
?: NFL app pic.twitter.com/CUraDu6WvG— NFL (@NFL) October 24, 2021
At this point, Chase is a top-five wide receiver in dynasty and in the conversation for WR1. His outlook for redraft is not that much lower, if at all, considering he’s on pace for 85 catches, 1,800-plus yards, and 15 touchdowns. Chase is third in the league in yards per catch before the reception, and he’s fourth among receivers in yards after the catch, making for an absolutely deadly combination for opposing defenses. While his opponent this week, the New York Jets, have actually been solid against wideouts, Chase is capable of going off regardless.
The Preseason Darling
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
For a third-round pick, Nico Collins received a lot of hype as a fantasy sleeper in the preseason, largely due to Houston’s lack of options at receiver. Unfortunately, the rookie from Michigan was placed on injured reserve after Week 2, but he returned to action two weeks ago. In the two games he’s played post-injury, Collins has totaled 11 targets, just enough to make him worth discussing as an up-and-coming fantasy possibility. The Texans had been cursed with poor quarterback play ever since Davis Mills had to fill in for the injured Tyrod Taylor, but Taylor is expected to reenter the starting lineup this week. If that happens, Collins will have a much better opportunity to put forth the breakthrough performance fans have been waiting for. Given that his teammate Brandin Cooks has been voicing his dissatisfaction with the team recently, Collins could also be auditioning for a promotion with his game against the Rams on Sunday.
The Budding Breakout
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
With Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the season with a shoulder injury, a lot of targets opened up in the Pittsburgh offense. A key beneficiary of this development was rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth. The Penn State product saw a career-high seven targets in Week 6, catching all seven for 58 yards. Now coming off of a bye, Freiermuth will be aiming to build on that strong performance and top his TE11 finish from Week 3. Considering that the other main Pittsburgh tight end, Eric Ebron, is injured and out this Sunday like JuJu, the stars are aligning for Freiermuth to make a big impact against Cleveland. While the Browns have done a good job defending tight ends to this point, it remains true that the rookie is in a better position to produce this week than for any other game in his young career so far.
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