RADIO
Every week, this column will spotlight the first-year players who are ripe for a breakout performance. Oftentimes, rookies can provide some of the most value as under-the-radar options.
This Thursday, we already witnessed a rookie have a major breakthrough. First-year wideout Elijah Moore put up a solid stat line for the New York Jets, tallying seven receptions for 84 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets. All four of those figures were career-highs. Perhaps this is foreshadowing some of the showings we'll see on Sunday? Plenty of rookies have been productive in fantasy already, and more join that club each week.
For dynasty leagues, this column should help identify ideal trade targets and prized stashes. For redraft managers, this column could provide the edge necessary for a championship run. Most of the players in this week's article are well-known, but a few are sneaky sleepers.
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The Mobile Magician
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
After a slow start to his NFL career, Justin Fields finally popped off last week against San Francisco. His QB5 finish was his first in the top-15 at the position. Fields' production was powered by his 103 yards on the ground, including an incredible 22-yard touchdown that left defenders grasping for air.
Justin Fields, what a run!!!
? NFL Game Pass pic.twitter.com/1R7ey7EH5z
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) October 31, 2021
Still, fantasy managers will want to see more passing production out of the Ohio State product before fully trusting him. Fields has cleared 200 passing yards just once back in Week 4, and even then he only threw for 209. Moreover, the rookie ranks outside the top-30 QBs in true completion percentage, true passer rating, and yards per attempt. It might not matter though given his rushing production, especially if he can put up another quality performance against a tough Pittsburgh defense this week. The Steelers yield the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
The Rolling Runner
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
A sixth-round pick in this year's draft, Elijah Mitchell has played like a first-rounder. The rookie has played five games this season and has rushed for 100 or more yards in three of them, including a 137-yard explosion last week. He has received a surprisingly large role in the offense after Raheem Mostert's season-ending injury; Mitchell's opportunity share ranks fifth among all running backs. This has translated into 433 rushing yards, the 16th-most in the league, despite him missing two games due to injury.
Mitchell has also been pretty efficient out there, given that his true yards per carry and breakaway run rate both rank 11th at his position. His lack of receiving usage is somewhat worrisome, having made just four catches on the year, but his rushing is enough to make him an RB2 despite that. San Francisco faces Arizona this week, a team that has surrendered the fourth-fewest half-PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs on the year. The first time Mitchell took on the Cardinals, he had just 62 scrimmage yards on 11 touches; look for him to be more involved this time around.
The Temporary Workhorse
Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI)
When David Montgomery went down with an injury, the expectation was that Damien Williams would take over Chicago's backfield. However, sixth-round running back Khalil Herbert has emerged as the team's primary back during Montgomery's absence. Herbert has toted the ball 78 times in the last four games, including a high of 23 carries last week. He also has made nine receptions in that span, meaning he has been averaging 22 touches per game in the last month.
While the rookie out of Virginia Tech may not rank inside of the top-20 in any notable efficiency metric, his usage is enough to propel him to solid fantasy finishes. Since Week 5, Herbert is the RB13 in standard scoring, right behind Aaron Jones. As mentioned above, the Bears face the Steelers this week, who have a strong defense. In fact, Pittsburgh is even better against running backs than quarterbacks, as they rank as the sixth-strongest defense against RBs in 2021. Watch to see if Herbert can continue his recent success against a worthy opponent.
Update: Recent news suggests that Montgomery may play versus Pittsburgh on Monday.
The One-Hit Wonder
Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG)
First-round rookie Kadarius Toney has been receiving a lot of hype since his dominant 10-catch, 189-yard showing versus Dallas in Week 5. Unfortunately, injuries have limited the former Florida Gator's ability to replicate that production. In the past three weeks, Toney has missed one game and totaled just 62 yards on seven catches in the other two. Still, there remains a lot to like about Toney's outlook. Despite having just the 49th-most receiving yards among wideouts, Toney has the 15th-most yards after the catch. His ability to make a big play is a key part of his game.
Kadarius Toney is making PLAYS?@GatorsFB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 3, 2021
Toney and the Giants take on a Las Vegas Raiders squad that has been strong against receivers this season. A key aspect to watch for is if Toney's target numbers return to the 10-ish he got in Weeks 4 and 5, or if it remains closer to the five he saw last week.
The Talented Pick-Up
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
Ravens rookie wideout Rashod Bateman missed the first five games of 2021, but now after two games in action, he is starting to gain some traction. Two weeks ago, Bateman caught three of six targets for 80 yards heading into Baltimore's bye, leading him to become the eighth-most added receiver in ESPN leagues this week. With a matchup against an unimpressive Vikings defense on tap, Bateman is poised to be an even hotter waiver wire target in the near future.
One important fact is that Bateman has been on the field for a relatively low percentage of snaps at just 61.8 percent. Increasing that number will be key for Bateman to make a leap in fantasy circles. The first-rounder from Minnesota's stock is rising right now, so it's likely that the Ravens coaching staff will utilize him more frequently soon. You'll have to catch his game this Sunday to see if that happens this week.
The Dynamic Debut
Brevin Jordan (TE, HOU)
With tight end Pharaoh Brown injured and out last week, Houston activated fifth-round rookie Brevin Jordan for the first time this season. Known for his receiving skills in college at Miami, Jordan impressed in his debut, catching three of four targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. Those stats were enough to make him the TE5 for the week in PPR formats.
FIRST CAREER TD for @Brevinjordan ?
? » FOX pic.twitter.com/aUeyq90TKA
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) October 31, 2021
With Brown ruled out for the second straight game, Jordan will have another opportunity to make an impact. He will be taking on the Miami Dolphins this weekend, two weeks after Miami was shredded by another rookie tight end: Kyle Pitts. It will be interesting to see if Jordan can maintain his effectiveness from last week over a larger sample; if so, he could quickly ascend up rest-of-season rankings at the tight end position.
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