RADIO
With the fantasy football regular season winding down, you know where your team stacks up in your league. You might be the one flaunting a dominant 10-2 record, or you may be the 3-9 team that is just playing for pride. But one thing is for certain: you are absolutely going to put your utmost effort into scoring as many points as possible from here on out.
A key part of a successful fantasy team is being able to scout the waiver wire for overlooked talent. Often, rookies can be some of the best value options available. Whether you are in a redraft league, a dynasty league, or both, you can absolutely benefit from acquiring some of the NFL's rising stars.
Every week, this article takes a look at five rookies who can return significant value in fantasy leagues. Some are more well-known than others, but all have significant promise and potential. Keep reading for some rookies to watch this week, starting with the standout receiver for the Minnesota Vikings.
The Crown Jewel
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson was quite the draft choice for the Vikings this year. After his two-touchdown performance last week against the Panthers, he now has six scores on the year. Jefferson also has surpassed the 100-yard mark four times, and he has seen at least five targets in seven of his last nine games. He is even the WR12 in PPR leagues. What I'm trying to get at is that, even in a strong crop of rookie receivers, Jefferson has been the most impressive.
Justin Jefferson among rookie WRs:
? 90.1 PFF Grade (1st)
? 286 YAC (1st)
? 37 first downs (1st)
? 24 RECs of 15+ yards (1st)A truly historic rookie campaign ? pic.twitter.com/hQ5uHanFSN
— PFF (@PFF) December 4, 2020
Efficiency metrics show just how incredible his season has been. He is averaging the most yards per target among all receivers at 12.8. He's putting forth the second-most yards per route run at his position. His 2.50 fantasy points per target place him at sixth. While his counting stats have been solid, his efficient production is what sets him apart. With a favorable matchup with Jacksonville on tap this week, Jefferson should be started in every league. If, somehow, you can strike a deal for him in your dynasty league, do so.
The Recovered Runner
J.K. Dobbins (RB, BAL)
Dobbins missed this past Wednesday's game against the Steelers after contracting COVID-19. When the Ravens take on the Cowboys on Tuesday, though, the rookie from Ohio State will be at their disposal. In his last four games, Dobbins has reached 12 carries three times. The team has started to lean on the talented back more frequently as of late, so expect a decent amount of touches in his return to action.
There's more to Dobbins than just usage though. His 4.8 true yards per carry average places him at fourth among RBs, and his juke rate of 30.3% is top 10. Dallas yielded 115 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to fellow rookie Antonio Gibson last week, so the potential for a huge performance is there. Will Dobbins top his career-high of 121 scrimmage yards this week? He has a real shot, so starting him should be an easy decision. Anyone who holds stock in Dobbins should be very optimistic moving forward.
The Grasped Opportunity
Collin Johnson (WR, JAX)
Jags receivers D.J. Chark and Chris Conley both missed last week with injuries, and Johnson made the most of his expanded role. The Texas product put up four catches, 96 yards, and a touchdown on his eight targets from quarterback Mike Glennon. Chark will be active this week, and Conley's status is still up in the air, but Johnson did enough to potentially earn a larger target share even when both are fully healthy.
Rookie WR Collin Johnson had just an 11.0% chance of scoring a Touchdown on his 46-yard TD reception, according to our YAC Over Expected model.
Expected YAC: 14
YAC over expected: +10#CLEvsJAX | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/Eu4Ft6IvBZ— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 29, 2020
Johnson showed some impressive wheels on his long score, picking up important yards after the catch. His six-foot-six, 222-pound frame makes this mobility all the more valuable when paired with his massive catch radius. Johnson has all the physical tools to succeed, and he had a great career at Texas. How productive he is in the NFL depends on how much teams will be willing to use him. We may get a better sense of that this week versus the Vikings. Johnson should be considered a waiver target, especially if he puts forth another strong performance this week.
The Possible Spark
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Rumors started to fly last week that Hurts would see an expanded role in the offense after taking first-team reps in practice. He only played two snaps on Monday night, though, so that possibility never really materialized. Given Carson Wentz's struggles, however, it may only be a matter of time until Hurts takes over. If and when he does, his mobility will make him a viable fantasy option regardless of how raw he is as a passer.
BAH GAWD THAT’S JALEN HURTS’ MUSIC
— PFF College (@PFF_College) December 1, 2020
Without much of a professional body of work to go off of, we have to base our analysis on college and Combine stats. For Hurts, these are generally quite solid. Fantasy managers have been spoiled by the likes of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, but Hurts's 4.59 40-yard dash is nothing to scoff at. His college QBR of 89.7 was a 95th percentile mark, and his 11.3 YPA really stood out. Questions linger about his ability to adjust to passing at an NFL level, but with Wentz faltering and the Eagles still in the playoff hunt, a switch to Hurts could be made soon. Fantasy managers should keep Hurts on their radar as a potential secret weapon during a playoff run.
The Dynasty Stash
Adam Trautman (TE, NO)
Sean Payton's Taysom Hill experiment has netted New Orleans two wins so far, but fantasy managers have been left unsatisfied. Alvin Kamara has been the most notable player whose production has tanked, but other casualties exist as well. One underappreciated weapon on the Saints has been Adam Trautman, who had a breakout game of sorts against Tampa Bay in Week 9. Since Hill has been the starter, though, we haven't gotten much of a chance to see what the rookie tight end can do.
The Saints have used tight ends quite effectively over the last decade. Jimmy Graham and Jared Cook have both been valuable fantasy options under Payton. With Cook 33 years old, Trautman could be next in line. He has excellent agility for the position, and his 89 percent catch rate (on small sample size) is quite encouraging. Trautman's value could be quite low right now with the Saints leaning into the ground game, so if he is on waivers in your dynasty league, he could be worth a real look. He has an excellent matchup versus the Falcons this week to show what he can do.
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