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Wow. After a lackluster start to the season, Rams rookie running back Cam Akers exploded on Thursday night. His 171 rushing yards against the Patriots was the sixth-highest total achieved this season, and his 29 carries show just how big of a role he now has in this offense. Any fantasy manager who held onto Akers through his struggles now has themselves a potential league-winner for the playoff stretch.
I mentioned that Akers is a rookie. It is important not to overlook the youngest players in the league, who often can provide the greatest value for fantasy managers. Many of this season's crop of first-year players have yet to find their stride, but others have already established themselves as potential stars. Both groups, though, are worth looking at for fantasy. When you hear of a rookie who has yet to produce, the emphasis should be on the word "yet," as Akers has proven.
Every week, this article takes a look at five rookies who can return significant value in fantasy leagues. Some are more well-known than others, but all have significant promise and potential. Keep reading for some rookies to watch this week, starting with a first-round QB who shares a stadium with Akers.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!
The Shocking Shut-Down
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Bill Belichick's defenses have always been tough to crack, and Herbert learned that lesson the hard way last week. The young passer completed just 49 percent of his passes for 209 yards, no touchdowns, and two picks. In his first 10 starts, Herbert finished as a top-20 QB each time. In his 11th, however, he finished just 30th as his Chargers team fell 45-0 to the Patriots. After such a productive stretch to open his career, Herbert really struggled for the first time last Sunday.
This should not be a major cause for concern, fortunately. He is still the QB9 on the season fantasy-wise, and his 22.4 fantasy points per game rank seventh at his position. His 27 "money throws" are the fourth-most in the league, and his 48.1 percent completion rate when pressured is the eighth-best. Herbert will be just fine, and he can be fired up with confidence this week against Atlanta. The Falcons have yielded the most fantasy points to quarterbacks of any team in the NFL. They did, strangely, shut down Derek Carr two weeks ago, but they are still a solid matchup for Herbert to exploit. Expect a top-10 performance from Herbert on Sunday to prove that the New England game was a fluke.
The Slumping Stud
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Like Herbert, Jeudy had a very strong string of performances to begin the season. The Alabama product surpassed 50 receiving yards in seven of his first nine games, showing solid consistency for such a young player. Sadly, his production has fallen off as of late. In his last three outings combined, he has just four catches for 42 yards. Of course, one of those games was with a practice squad WR starting at quarterback, but there was little excuse for his five-yard no-show last Sunday. The Chiefs Defense is solid, but still.
Jeudy may be in a slump at the moment, but it's only a matter of time until he breaks out of it. He's just a few weeks removed from a four-game stretch where he averaged 10 targets, so his volume should rebound quickly. In fact, Jeudy's 753 unrealized air yards are the second-most in the NFL, and his 1,191 total air yards rank fourth. It is hard to imagine the talented rookie failing to bounce back with that kind of opportunity. The Panthers do have a tough defense, so Jeudy may not have that strong of a game this weekend. Patience is a virtue though, and he will return to his mid-season form sooner rather than later.
The Fresh Face
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Kmet was largely invisible up until last week. The rookie tight end had not seen more than three targets in a game until last Sunday when he saw seven. After converting those opportunities into five catches, 37 yards, and a score, Kmet has earned a larger role in the offense. Kmet's seven targets exceeded teammate Jimmy Graham's one by a significant margin, so it's worth wondering if Graham has now been surpassed on the depth chart. The snap counts from last week (Kmet over Graham 54 to 34) back up that theory.
Rookie TE @ColeKmet gives the @ChicagoBears a 10-point lead! #DaBears
?: #DETvsCHI on FOX
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/nO8DOddpx2 pic.twitter.com/D7kyDD9nMW— NFL (@NFL) December 6, 2020
If you are hurting at the tight end position, Kmet is worth adding on waivers. His efficiency stats are merely average, but enough volume can make even the most inefficient players fantasy-relevant. The Bears pass the fourth-most times per game of any team in the league, so Kmet could see plenty of targets. With the Bears on a six-game skid, garbage-time production is up for grabs at the end of games, and Kmet is positioning himself to be a big part of that. Watch if the Notre Dame product can maintain his edge over Graham in the offense this week versus Houston.
The Future Breakout
Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL)
Duvernay hasn't done much yet this year. He's yet to top 50 receiving yards in a game, and he's never seen more than three targets. His one-catch, two-yard showing last week was not out of the ordinary. He did have a 42-yard rush back in Week Five, but that's an eternity ago in fantasy time. So why am I mentioning the rookie from Texas at all?
Firstly, Duvernay's usage has been increasing as of late. He was on the field for 80 percent of snaps last week, a career-high. His previous high-water mark came the week before at 77 percent. He has played 50 percent or more of the team's snaps three times, all within the last four weeks. Secondly, Duvernay is extremely athletic. His 4.39 speed makes him a threat whenever he touches the ball, as shown by his average of 5.9 yards after the catch. Between his great quickness and climbing snap counts, Duvernay has "random late-season blow-up game" written all over him. Could it be this week against the Cleveland Browns?
Also, random trivia fact: Duvernay is the cousin of Cardinals QB Kyler Murray. Who knew?
The Versatile Addition
Lynn Bowden Jr. (RB/WR, MIA)
Bowden has had a rocky start to his NFL career. After being drafted in the third round by Las Vegas, the Raiders traded him to the Dolphins before he ever played a down. With Miami, he only saw five touches through Week 12. Worse, those only went for eight yards. It was starting to become clear why the Raiders dealt him while they still could.
.@miamidolphins WR @lynnbowden_1 had his best game as a pro sunday. bowden caught 4/4 targets for 41 yards & added 1 carry for 11 yards.
bowden should see his role increase over the final four weeks as he continues to develop as an NFL WR. #finsup
| ?️ was made with @klipdraw | pic.twitter.com/8Wm1LYtBfv
— josh houtz (@houtz) December 10, 2020
Then last week happened. There was nothing earth-shattering, but Bowden did have five touches and 52 yards, 41 of which came through the air. The versatile weapon that the Raiders drafted him to be was suddenly on display. He played 44 percent of snaps versus the Bengals, the biggest share in his young career. His second-largest share was the week before with 31 percent. With the Dolphins investing more energy into using Bowden, dynasty managers should take a long look at stashing him. He is listed as a receiver on Miami's depth chart, but he does work at running back as well and may have eligibility at both positions in your league. It will be interesting to see if he continues his upward trend this week versus the Chiefs.
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