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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 8 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Titans -1
Implied Total: Titans (25.25) vs. Colts (24.25)
Pace: Titans (15th) vs. Colts (27th)
Scheme: Titans (54% Pass, 46% Run) vs. Colts (57% Pass, 43% Run)
Titans Off. DVOA: 13.7% Pass DVOA (19th), -1.6% Rush DVOA (7th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 16.9% Pass DVOA (22nd), -33.4% Rush DVOA (1st)
Titans Def. DVOA: 10.9% Pass DVOA (18th), -5.7% Rush DVOA (25th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 17.4% Pass DVOA (17th), -9.2% Rush DVOA (17th)
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Henry takes on a Colts defense that ranks 1st in rush DVOA, giving up the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, but they just allowed Elijah Mitchell to rush for 107 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The Big Dog has absolutely dominated the Colts in recent matchups, rushing for 459 yards and four touchdowns on 100 carries in their last four meetings. Henry is coming off his first game of the season where he did not eclipse the century mark on the ground. Look for a bounce-back game in a huge divisional matchup here.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown has come alive in his last two games, catching 15-of-18 targets for 224 yards and a touchdown. This is a good matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 22nd in pass DVOA, giving up the seventh-most PPR points per game to wide receivers. PFF gives Brown an 88.6 Matchup Rating against Colts defenders here, which ranks fifth among each wideout on the slate. Brown leads the team with a 39.66% air yard share and 24.86% target share. Add in the fact that Julio Jones has been ruled out for this matchup and you have an absolute smash spot.
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Since Week 4, Taylor has rushed for 408 yards and five touchdowns on 63 carries (6.48 YPC) while catching 10-of-12 targets for 143 yards and a touchdown, ranking as RB3 in PPR points per game during that span. He goes up against a Titans defense that ranks 25th in rush DVOA, giving up 4.6 yards per carry, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Taylor has put up 104.6 Expected Fantasy Points (6th) with 19.6 Fantasy Points Above Expectation (T-4th). It was encouraging to see him play over 69% of the snaps last week. This is an elite RB1.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman has become one of the more underrated wideouts in football. He's currently ranked as WR20 in PPR formats, leading the Colts with a 35.69% air yard share and 23.36% target share. If T.Y. Hilton is out for another week, we could see Pittman continue to see the lion's share of the targets. That's good news against a Titans defense that has given up the most PPR points per game to wide receivers. Pittman ranks 23rd among wideouts in Expected Fantasy Points with 7.4 Fantasy Points Above Expectation.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this game, as both teams have narrowly distributed usage among their best players. This game has sneaky shootout potential.
Other Matchups:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill really came alive in the upset win over the Chiefs last week, completing 77.8 percent of his passes for 270 yards (10.0 Y/A) with one touchdown and one interception. He also added a rushing touchdown. Tannehill looked like the player we saw in his last two years as a Titan. There's a chance that he's busted out of his season-long slump, just in time for another good matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 21st in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Tannehill is back in the circle of trust as a streamer, but I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section because there's always risk that Derrick Henry takes over and the Titans go run-heavy.
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Wentz has really played well of late, completing 77-of-113 passes (68.1%) for 1,003 yards (8.88 Y/A) with eight touchdowns and no interceptions, ranking as QB10 during that span. This puts him firmly in play as a streamer against this vulnerable Titans defense giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. While there's always risk that the Colts go with a run-heavy approach, we need to fire up Wentz with how well he's playing right now. You can also go with a Colts stack of Wentz-Taylor-Pittman in DFS tournaments.
Additional Notes:
T.Y. Hilton got in a limited practice on Thursday. If he plays, we can slightly downgrade Michael Pittman Jr.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets
Spread: Bengals -10.5
Implied Total: Bengals (26.75) vs. Jets (16.25)
Pace: Bengals (30th) vs. Jets (8th)
Scheme: Bengals (57% Pass, 43% Run) vs. Jets (54% Pass, 46% Run)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 17.6% Pass DVOA (16th), -12.6% Rush DVOA (18th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 28.1% Pass DVOA (28th), -4.6% Rush DVOA (27th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: -1.8% Pass DVOA (8th), -24.0% Rush DVOA (5th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -33.1% Pass DVOA (32nd), -17.6% Rush DVOA (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow has been on fire lately, completing 93-of-137 passes (67.9%) for 1,316 yards (9.61 Y/A) with 10 touchdowns and four interceptions, ranking as QB3 during that span. It's encouraging to see the Bengals move to a more pass-heavy approach on offense with Burrow averaging 34.25 attempts in his last four games. Burrow ranks 2nd among quarterbacks with 36.8 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. He now takes on a Jets defense that ranks 28th in Pass DVOA, allowing 7.71 yards per attempt (23rd).
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Chase is off to the best start by a rookie wideout in NFL history, catching 35-of-51 targets for 754 yards and six touchdowns. The rookie phenom has racked up nine or more targets in three of his last four games, so the volume is starting to catch up to the efficiency. Chase ranks first among wideouts with 52.6 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. This is a special player going up against a Jets defense allowing 8.26 yards per target to wide receivers (17th). Chase is an every-week WR1 going forward.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
We haven't seen a spike week from Higgins yet, but it's only a matter of time before it happens. The second-year wideout is coming off a game against the Ravens where he saw an absurd 15 targets. While he wasn't efficient (46.7% Catch Rate), you have to love the volume. He's now fully healthy and back to a full workload. Higgins is tied for 21st among wideouts with 11.8 Expected Fantasy Points per game. Higgins has also put up a 27.39% target share (1st on Bengals) and 38.46% red-zone target share (1st on Bengals). He looks like one of the best buy lows in fantasy football right now.
Matchups We Hate:
Tyler Boyd (WR, CIN)
It's really hard to like Boyd, even in a good matchup like this one. The veteran wideout is now a clear-cut number-three option at wide receiver. He's putting up a 21.74% target share, but that's inflated by his 11-target game against the Jaguars. He's put up six or fewer targets in four of his seven games this season. This is a receiver who needs volume to provide strong fantasy production because his average depth of target is only 6.4 yards. You also have to factor in C.J. Uzomah's emergence in this offense. There are too many mouths to feed and Boyd is falling down the food chain.
Other Matchups:
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
Carter is coming off a big game in garbage time against the Patriots, catching 8-of-9 targets for 67 yards while putting up a highly impressive 86.7% opportunity share. The rookie has officially taken over this backfield. The problem here is that the Bengals' defense has been very good, especially against the run, where they rank 5th in rush DVOA, allowing only 3.53 yards per carry (3rd). However, we could see the Jets' offense look a bit more efficient with veteran quarterback Mike White now starting. You also have to like Carter's usage in the passing game. He looks like a volume-based RB2 in this spot, but we'll keep him in the lukewarm section due to the matchup.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon currently ranks as RB17 in PPR points per game. We're also starting to see his usage scaled back, as he's totaled fewer than 20 opportunities in four of his last five games. Samaje Perine is now eating into the passing game usage, particularly on third downs. This is concerning because part of Mixon's appeal this season was his projected elite volume. That's no longer there unless Perine was forced to miss time as we saw in Week 6 against Detroit. For this reason, I'm keeping Mixon as a high-end RB2 instead of RB1 moving forward. This is a good matchup in a positive game script against the Jets, who just allowed Damien Harris to go off for 106 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, but the Bengals are starting to pass at a higher rate. Temper your expectations for Mixon in this one.
C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN)
Uzomah has earned a role in this offense, coming off another big game, this time against the Ravens, where he caught all three of his targets for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Uzomah doesn't get much volume (9.18% target share), but he's shown a really high ceiling at tight end, putting up two 90+ yard games with two touchdowns each time. With the Bengals starting to pass more, Uzomah can carve out a role as a weekly streamer at a thin tight end position. He leads the position with 38.2 Fantasy Points Above Expectation.
Corey Davis (WR, NYJ)
Davis is currently ranked as WR31 in PPR points per game, leading the team with a 20.19% target share. The Bengals are a tough matchup, tied for 13th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, so we can consider Davis as a WR3/4 in this spot. Jamison Crowder has a decent chance to eat into his workload. Rookie Elijah Moore has been a non-factor, but maybe he gets it going with Mike White. I'd fire up Crowder as a WR4 in full-PPR leagues. Moore isn't worth starting at this time.
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
Spread: Eagles -3
Implied Total: Eagles (25.25) vs. Lions (22.25)
Pace: Eagles (2nd) vs. Lions (24th)
Scheme: Eagles (60% Pass, 40% Run) vs. Lions (50% Pass, 50% Run)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 8.2% Pass DVOA (23rd), -2.9% Rush DVOA (8th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 24.9% Pass DVOA (27th), -9.5% Rush DVOA (21st)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 11.4% Pass DVOA (19th), -2.4% Rush DVOA (29th)
Lions Off. DVOA: -6.5% Pass DVOA (27th), -20.4% Rush DVOA (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts continues to be the king of garbage time, racking up at least 20 fantasy points in every game this season, including 23+ points in five of his seven games. He's done this despite being thoroughly underwhelming from a pure football standpoint, especially in his last three games, where he's completed 52-of-97 passes (53.6%) for 549 yards (5.66 Y/A) with three touchdowns and two interceptions. This highlights the importance of rushing quarterbacks, as Hurts' fantasy production has been salvaged by 135 yards and four touchdowns on the ground during this stretch. Hurts ranks 4th among quarterbacks with 164.8 Expected Fantasy Points. This is a smash spot against a Lions defense that ranks 27th in pass DVOA, allowing 9.5 yards per attempt to opposing passers.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert played 92.75% of the snaps with a 16.13% target share in his first game without Zach Ertz. From Weeks 1-6, Goedert had been on the field for 68.29% of the snaps with an 11.18% target share. That's an encouraging uptick in volume for this talented tight end. Goedert needs to be considered at least a Top-8 option moving forward given the weakness at tight end. PFF gives Goedert a 33% Matchup Advantage against linebacker Alex Anzalone, which ranks 5th among tight ends on this slate.
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift continues to prove that he was the biggest steal at running back this draft season. He currently leads all running backs with 52 targets, ranking as RB5 in PPR points per game. Swift put up an 80.41% opportunity share in last week's loss to the Rams. This kind of volume really raises his upside, giving him the potential to finish in the Top-3, even with the Lions' struggles on offense. Swift has a terrific matchup here, as the Eagles rank 29th in rush DVOA, allowing the third-most PPR points per game to running backs. This exploitable matchup also puts Jamaal Williams in play as a touchdown-dependent desperation FLEX.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson put up an underwhelming six receptions for 48 yards last week, but he's now racked up 20 targets in his last two games. It's only a matter of time before we see another spike week from this talented tight end. This profiles as a good spot for that, as the Eagles rank 27th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends. PFF gives Hockenson a 26% Matchup Advantage against linebacker Eric Wilson. Fire up Hockenson as a top-tier tight end in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Kenny Gainwell (RB, PHI)
Gainwell takes over as the 1A in this backfield with Miles Sanders on the shelf. While the rookie will share duties with veteran Boston Scott, I'm still optimistic about this situation. Gainwell put up eight targets last week, which demonstrates that he's the preferred pass-catching back here. Since he'll be dominating the high-value touches (targets + red-zone carries), that puts him in play as an RB2 in this spot. The Lions rank 21st in rush DVOA, giving up the fifth-most PPR points per game to running backs. The only reason why Gainwell is in the lukewarm section is that we've seen head coach Nick Sirianni make some head-scratching decisions when it comes to his running backs.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
Like every other skills player on this Philly offense, Smith is in a great spot against one of the weakest defenses in football. The usage numbers look great for the rookie: 38.05% air yard share and 23.11% target share. However, the production hasn't been there with Hurts' struggles as a passer, as Smith has combined for only seven receptions for 92 yards in his last two games. Smith ranks 26th with 71.7 Expected Fantasy Points, but he's put up 9.1 Fantasy Points Below Expectation. I have to leave Smith in the lukewarm section for this reason.
Kalif Raymond (WR, DET)
Raymond had a breakout game against the Rams last week, catching 6-of-8 targets for 115 yards. He led the team with a 48.18% air yard share and came 2nd with a 25.81% target share in that game. Raymond has put up 58.6 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranks 44th among wideouts, much higher than his WR53 rank in PPR points per game. Perhaps he's establishing himself as the top wideout here, but there's risk that this was just an outlier game and that we'll see rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown re-emerge in this offense.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Implied Total: Panthers (21.75) vs. Falcons (24.25)
Pace: Panthers (17th) vs. Falcons (7th)
Scheme: Panthers (58% Pass, 42% Run) vs. Falcons (60% Pass, 4o% Run)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -18.0% Pass DVOA (30th), -15.6% Rush DVOA (21st)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 30.9% Pass DVOA (30th), -3.3% Rush DVOA (28th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: -1.0% Pass DVOA (9th), -10.3% Rush DVOA (19th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 4.7% Pass DVOA (24th), -34.6% Rush DVOA (31st)
Matchups We Love:
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
Moore has slowed down a bit due to quarterback play, combining for 11 receptions for 146 yards in his last two games, but he's still been a volume machine during this small sample, putting up 23 targets in these two games. Moore currently ranks 6th with a 28.97% target share while putting up 109 Expected Fantasy Points (3rd). Moore has posted 7.3 Fantasy Points Below Expectation because of Sam Darnold's struggles. This is a good chance for a spike week against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL)
Patterson has officially fully taken over this backfield, playing on 73% of the snaps with a 76.46% opportunity share against the Dolphins last week. Patterson's previous totals: 32.98%, 49.58%, 54.44%, 36.43%, and 68.28%. The biggest surprise of the year has put up 77.2 Expected Fantasy Points (17th among RBs) and 25.2 Fantasy Points Above Expectation (3rd among RBs). The only thing missing was an uptick in volume and we now have that. Patterson has a good matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 19th in rush DVOA, allowing 4.37 YPC (19th) to running backs.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts is showing everyone why he was such a highly-touted tight end coming out of college, catching 16-of-18 targets for 282 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. It's not crazy to call Pitts the second-best fantasy tight end behind Travis Kelce right now. The rookie has put up an 18.26% target share with eight red-zone targets and a 10.8 average depth of target. The latter two categories rank in the Top-3 of tight ends. This kid is only getting better each week. PFF gives Pitts a 45% Matchup Advantage against linebacker Jermaine Carter. The Panthers rank 14th in PPR points per game to tight ends.
Matchups We Hate:
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR)
Darnold has been an absolute disaster in his last three games, completing 54-of-103 passes (52.4%) for 495 yards (4.81 Y/A) with two touchdowns and five interceptions, forcing head coach Matt Rhule to bench him for P.J. Walker last week. This might be the last straw for Darnold. Lucky for him, the matchup is good against a Falcons defense that ranks 30th in pass DVOA, giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I love the matchup, but I hate the way Darnold is playing. Add in the fact that quarterback is such a deep position and you come away asking yourself, why stream Darnold this week? Take a wait-and-see approach.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
No one is doing less with more than Anderson, who has turned 20 targets into only six receptions for 25 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. While I love the volume, it's incredibly tough to advise you to start Anderson with how little he's produced this season, even in this favorable matchup. I would suggest stashing Anderson on your bench until he starts to show some signs of life. There's really no point in taking on the high risk in starting him unless you're desperate at wide receiver. In DFS, it's a different story, as Anderson is in play as a contrarian pick in tournaments.
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan has turned the corner recently, completing 110-of-163 passes (67.5%) for 1,204 yards (7.39 Y/A) with 10 touchdowns and one interception in his last four games, ranking as QB12 in fantasy points per game during that span. The problem is that the Panthers have a really tough pass defense, coming in at 9th in pass DVOA while allowing only 6.6 yards per attempt (5th in NFL). Ryan will need high volume to get there this week, which will be tough because the Panthers play at a pretty slow pace and I expect them to have success on offense, keeping the ball away from the Falcons' veteran quarterback. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer.
Other Matchups:
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
Hubbard continues to dominate this backfield, putting up a 79.8% opportunity share since Christian McCaffrey has been out of the lineup. The rookie running back has been limited by Darnold's ineffective play, resulting in consecutive inefficient performances. The good news is that this is a great matchup against a Falcons defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA, giving up eighth-most PPR points per game to opposing running backs. Perhaps we see the Panthers go more run-heavy than usual to allow Darnold to regain his confidence. Having said that, I have to treat Hubbard as a volume-based RB2 given the Panthers' struggles on offense.
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
I really thought that Ridley was going off against the Dolphins last week, but it didn't happen, as the star wideout only put up four receptions for 10 yards and a touchdown. The emergence of Kyle Pitts and Cordarelle Patterson has really limited Ridley's upside. While I love the volume (29.11% target share), I just can't justify putting Ridley above the lukewarm section against a Panthers defense allowing the 11th-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts. Ridley has put up 26.9 Fantasy Points Below Expectation, which is tied with Robby Anderson for the worst mark in the league. This tells us that he should be producing more given his high workload, but it might be time to bump Ridley down to the high-end WR2 range for the time being.
UPDATE: Calvin Ridley has been ruled out.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Implied Total: 49ers (21.5) vs. Bears (18.0)
Pace: 49ers (21st) vs. Bears (25th)
Scheme: 49ers (51% Pass, 49% Run) vs. Bears (45% Pass, 55% Run)
49ers Off. DVOA: 12.1% Pass DVOA (21st), -5.4% Rush DVOA (12th)
Bears Def. DVOA: -3.0% Pass DVOA (7th), -11.5% Rush DVOA (17th)
49ers Def. DVOA: 7.6% Pass DVOA (15th), -17.0% Rush DVOA (10th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -27.7% Pass DVOA (31st), -4.3% Rush DVOA (9th)
Matchups We Love:
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Samuel is the only fantasy-relevant player to love in this spot. He's surprisingly emerged as a target monster this season, leading the NFL with a 34.05% target share. This kind of volume makes him matchup-proof. The Bears rank 7th in pass DVOA, but they are tied for 28th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. We have to consider Deebo a WR1 with the way he's playing this year, especially with George Kittle still out of the lineup. I wouldn't worry about the calf injury, as he was removed from the injury report.
Matchups We Hate:
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Someone really needs to rescue Robinson out of Chicago. It's appalling to see how such a talented wideout, one who has produced with mediocre quarterbacks throughout his career, can be held back so much by poor quarterback play and play-calling. Hopefully, the Bears will attempt to showcase him in this game, perhaps for a potential trade, but I'm not buying it right now. There just isn't enough passing volume to go around in this offense. Don't even consider starting A-Rob, especially against a 49ers defense that ranks 12th in PPR PPG allowed to wideouts.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Mooney surprisingly leads the Bears with a 25.0% target share, which makes him intriguing as a young wideout in his second year. We have seen Justin Fields show more of a rapport with Mooney, making him a better fantasy option for the time being. Having said that, this offense is too inefficient and run-heavy to consider starting Mooney here. We've also seen the offensive line continue to struggle along with Fields holding the ball for way too long. It's best to steer clear of this passing game.
Other Matchups:
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
Mitchell showed why many of us were so confident that he'd retain his role as the bell cow in this offense once he returned from injury. It was clear in Week 1 that head coach Kyle Shanahan trusted Mitchell once Raheem Mostert went down. Mitchell is coming off a game where he rushed 18 times for 107 yards and a touchdown against a Colts defense that ranks 1st in rush DVOA. This shows that Mitchell, along with this running back-friendly offense, can operate at a high level in any matchups. Having said that, we have to leave him in the lukewarm section given his absence in the passing game, as JaMycal Hasty handled all third downs. Consider Mitchell an RB2.
Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI)
The rookie has really emerged as an intriguing player for Chicago. He's combined for 272 yards on 55 carries in three games, including five targets in his last game. David Montgomery remains out of the lineup, so Herbert can continue to be an RB2 here. The rookie has supplanted Damien Williams as the lead back in Monty's absence. San Francisco ranks 10th in rush DVOA, but they got shredded by Jonathan Taylor and we saw Herbert find success against a tough Bucs defense.
Additional Notes:
Jimmy Garoppolo is never in play as a streamer, while Justin Fields has fallen off the fantasy radar due to his abysmal performance. Brandon Aiyuk is now droppable in most formats.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -3.5
Implied Total: Steelers (19.5) vs. Browns (23.0)
Pace: Steelers (22nd) vs. Browns (28th)
Scheme: Steelers (60% Pass, 40% Run) vs. Browns (48% Pass, 52% Run)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 12.3% Pass DVOA (20th), -18.0% Rush DVOA (23rd)
Browns Def. DVOA: 18.1% Pass DVOA (23rd), -30.1% Rush DVOA (3rd)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 5.2% Pass DVOA (13th), -20.7% Rush DVOA (9th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 19.2% Pass DVOA (15th), 17.3% Rush DVOA (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Harris has been everything as advertised, essentially playing the Le'Veon Bell role for the Steelers. The star rookie running back ranks 3rd among running backs with a 19.74% target share and 2nd with an 87.93% attempt share. That kind of volume puts him in play as a high-end RB1 on a weekly basis, especially with the Steelers' passing game in a good spot here, making it likely that the offense moves the ball. The Browns are giving up the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, but that doesn't really matter with Najee's workload.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Johnson has been one of the most consistent wideouts in the NFL this season, putting up 70+ yards in four consecutive games, including double-digit targets in four of his last five. The loss of JuJu Smith-Schuster could potentially mean more targets for Johnson, whose 28.57% target share ranks 7th in the NFL. Johnson goes up against a pass-funnel Browns defense that ranks 23rd in pass DVOA, ranking tied for 25th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts. He's a borderline WR1 in this spot.
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
Chubb looks ready to return to the Browns lineup. He's in a great spot with Kareem Hunt out for this game. While D'Ernest Johnson played fantastic on Thursday Night Football last week, we can expect to see at least a marginal increase in Chubb's workload. That gives him tantalizing upside as one of the most efficient runners in football. Chubb has put up 17.5 Fantasy Points Above Expectation, which ranks 6th among running backs. The Steelers are stout against the run (9th in rush DVOA), but this Browns running game can overcome any matchup (1st in rush DVOA). We also saw Pittsburgh show some leaks in their run defense against Seattle before the bye week, giving up 101 yards on 20 carries to Alex Collins.
Matchups We Hate:
Baker Mayfield (QB, PIT)
All signs point to Mayfield returning to the lineup on Sunday, as he's been able to practice all week so far. This is a tough matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 13th in pass DVOA and 9th in rush DVOA. We also have to consider that Mayfield will be limited by his injury. How can we trust him as a streamer against one of the best defenses in football? It just doesn't make sense to take that risk, especially when the ceiling isn't even high in this run-heavy offense.
Other Matchups:
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Claypool has racked up 28 targets in his last three games. He has a chance to really emerge down the stretch with JuJu Smith-Schuster out for the season. The second-year wideout has only scored one touchdown so far, after putting up 11 in his rookie year. It seems like it's only a matter of time before we see a spike week from Claypool. This could be the week, as the Browns have struggled to defend the pass. You have to love the uptick in targets here, but I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section because he's more volatile than Johnson. Having said that, I do find Claypool to be an appealing play as an upside WR3 in this spot.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Landry returned from injury last week, got banged up again, but he's expected to play against the Steelers. Case Keenum missed him on a wide-open play in the red-zone that would have been a guaranteed touchdown. It was clear that Landry is the top target in this offense, even with Odell Beckham Jr. on the field. Look for him to lead Cleveland in targets again here against a Steelers defense that has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, CLE)
Beckham is obviously the more volatile play among Browns wideouts, but I'm intrigued by this spot here. The Steelers have given up big days to wideouts like Courtland Sutton (7 REC, 120 YDS, 1 TD), Henry Ruggs (5 REC, 113 YDS, 1 TD), and Ja'Marr Chase (4 REC, 65 YDS, 2 TD). Beckham fits this archetype as a wideout who can win downfield more than Landry, who does his damage underneath in the slot. I like OBJ has a boom-or-bust WR3 with upside here.
Los Angeles Rams at Houston Texans
Spread: Rams -14.5
Implied Total: Rams (31.25) vs. Texans (16.75)
Pace: Rams (11th) vs. Texans (23rd)
Scheme: Rams (62% Pass, 38% Run) vs. Texans (55% Pass, 45% Run)
Rams Off. DVOA: 57.0% Pass DVOA (1st), -8.7% Rush DVOA (15th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 4.6% Pass DVOA (12th), -1.9% Rush DVOA (30th)
Rams Def. DVOA: -9.0% Pass DVOA (4th), -14.3% Rush DVOA (16th)
Texans Off. DVOA: -12.5% Pass DVOA (29th), -41.8% Rush DVOA (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford just continues to absolutely ball out in the best passing game in the NFL. He gets another smash spot against a Texans defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA, ranking 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The Rams have the highest implied total on the slate and we can expect Stafford to put up strong production. The one risk is that they take their foot off the gas in the second half after getting out to a double-digit lead. However, Tyrod Taylor is expected to return, which helps mitigate this risk. Stafford is an elite QB1.
UPDATE: Although Taylor has been designated to return from IR, Davis Mills will start again in Week 8.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (WR, LAR)
Henderson disappointed in a smash spot against the Lions, but that was because the Rams fell behind early, forced to air it out more to erase the deficit. We have to still consider Henderson an RB1 in this spot, especially with a positive game script with the Rams as -14.5-point favorites. The Texans rank dead last in rush DVOA, allowing 5.24 yards per carry (31st) on the ground. Henderson has a terrific role on an elite offense, tied for 5th among running backs with 16.3 Expected Fantasy Points per game. Look for a big bounce-back here.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
We've run out of superlatives to say about Kupp this year, who has surprisingly ascended to the overall WR1 in football. We expected Kupp to emerge as Stafford's favorite target, but this goes beyond my wildest expectations. Kupp ranks 1st among wideouts in Expected Fantasy Points with 126.8. He also comes in at 2nd with 35.6 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. As with Stafford, there's risk that Los Angeles slows it down in the second half, but Kupp is seeing such a ridiculous workload that he has to be considered as a Top-3 option at the very least.
Tyler Higbee (WR, LAR)
Every week we hear about how Higbee is ready to break out because of his strong usage: 90.72% snap share, 52.1 Expected Fantasy Points (10th among tight ends), but it just hasn't happened. Higbee is coming off another mediocre performance, catching 5-of-8 targets for 48 yards. Having said that, I do think that he's poised for a spike week sooner than later, perhaps even here. Higbee goes up against a Texans defense that ranks 29th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends, so this is a great spot. I'll fire him up as a Top-10 TE1 here.
Matchups We Hate:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Davis Mills is starting for another week, which severely limits this Texans' offense against a tough Rams defense. Cooks has put up fewer than 25 yards in two of his last three games. He'll also have to deal with Jalen Ramsey and a tough Rams pass defense that ranks 4th in pass DVOA. While Cooks should see solid volume (31.37% target share), the Texans are likely to really struggle to move the ball in this matchup. I'm not interested in starting Cooks in this spot.
Other Matchups:
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Woods still has a respectable 20.83% target share, but he's clearly taken a backseat to Cooper Kupp. In a game where the Rams likely won't need to air it out as much, that leaves Woods in the lukewarm section. He's only put up more than six targets in two out of seven games this season. While he's shown a high ceiling (12 REC, 150 YDS at SEA), it's just tough to trust him as anything more than a WR3 given the game script. Hopefully, the Texans can keep pace a bit so that we see enough volume for Woods. I'll have to leave him in the lukewarm section.
David Johnson (RB, HOU)
Mark Ingram has been traded to the New Orleans Saints, leaving Johnson with Phillip Lindsay in this Texans backfield. Johnson is the preferred fantasy option because of his usage in the passing game. We could see DJ get peppered with check-downs as the Texans try to come back down multiple scores. There's also the possibility that Houston tries to feature Johnson in this game to showcase him for a potential trade, especially since the deadline is this week. Johnson looks like an intriguing FLEX play in PPR leagues here.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -13.5
Implied Total: Dolphins (17.5) vs. Bills (31.0)
Pace: Dolphins (6th) vs. Bills (5th)
Scheme: Dolphins (65% Pass, 35% Run) vs. Bills (64% Pass, 36% Run)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: -3.0% Pass DVOA (26th), -29.2% Rush DVOA (30th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -34.2% Pass DVOA (1st), -22.4% Rush DVOA (6th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 20.6% Pass DVOA (26th), -10.9% Rush DVOA (18th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 25.8% Pass DVOA (10th), -8.8% Rush DVOA (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Allen is in a terrific spot at home against a Dolphins defense that ranks 26th in pass DVOA, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Allen has really picked up his play after a slow start, averaging 31.12 fantasy points per game since Week 3. That ranks as QB1 with almost five more points per game than second-place Jalen Hurts. Allen also leads quarterbacks in Expected Fantasy Points per game (28.9), which is 4.5 more than QB2 Lamar Jackson. This is because the Bills are such a pass-heavy team and Allen can add in some rushing production. He's the overall QB1 this week with a decent chance at finishing there by the end of the season.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs came alive against the Titans with a spike week right before the bye, catching 9-of-11 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. We still haven't seen him hit his absolute ceiling yet and it's possible that it happens this week. The Dolphins are giving up the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers. Diggs is currently WR19 in PPR points per game, but he ranks seventh in Expected Fantasy Points per game. He's put up 11.9 Fantasy Points Below Expectation this season, which indicates that the opportunity has been there, he just hasn't posted elite production yet. There's a good chance that he smashes against the Dolphins here. Diggs is a Top-3 wideout this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa has put up strong fantasy production since returning from injury, averaging 25.45 fantasy points per game in two games. The problem here is that the Bills defense has been fantastic this season, ranking 1st in pass DVOA, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The good news is that the Dolphins have been pass-heavy and this sets up as a pass-heavy game script with the team trying to play catch-up with Allen and company. Having said that, I can't recommend Tua as a streamer in this tough spot.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Waddle has established himself as Tua's favorite wideout, catching 17-of-21 targets for 153 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. The problem is that his ceiling is limited with his low aDOT role (5.6 yards). The Bills are giving up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. There's also a chance that DeVante Parker returns for this game, which would cut into Waddle's target share. For that reason, I'm not too interested in the Dolphins' wideouts this week.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Beasley had a bounce-back week against the Titans before the bye, catching 7-of-9 targets for 88 yards and a touchdown. The problem is that prior to this game, he had combined for 21 yards on three receptions. The difference was that the Bills actually played from behind against Tennessee after blowing out their previous few opponents. It seems that Beasley is a better play when the Bills are in closer games. If this one turns into a blowout like oddsmakers believe it will, that's bad news for Beasley. While it helps that Dawson Knox is out, I'm still not too excited for this spot. Emmanuel Sanders is definitely the preferred option.
Other Matchups:
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Gaskin has shown that he can make an impact in the passing game, catching 28-of-36 targets for 146 yards and three touchdowns this season. We've seen the type of ceiling he can have in pass-heavy game scripts, as he caught all 10 of his targets in a blowout loss to the Bucs earlier this season. It's absolutely in his range of outcomes to do that again as Tua dumps it off to his back while the Dolphins play catch-up. Malcolm Brown is out for this week, so it's just Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed. While Ahmed will take some touches, Gaskin is the more valuable fantasy player. He's a solid FLEX in PPR leagues in a favorable game script.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki continues to make a major impact as a fantasy tight end while functioning as a de facto wide receiver. Since Week 3, Gesicki has caught 34-of-42 targets for 386 yards and two touchdowns, ranking as TE3 in PPR points per game during that span. The Bills are a bit more vulnerable against the tight end, ranking 10th in PPR points per game allowed to the position. Gesicki ranks 7th among tight ends in Expected Fantasy Points, demonstrating a solid role in this offense. Continue to fire him up as a TE1.
Zack Moss (RB, BUF)
Moss is still splitting time with Devin Singletary, but the second-year back appears to have a slight edge in opportunity share. This puts him in play as a FLEX in a projected positive game script with the Bills favored by double-digits. The Dolphins rank 18th in rush DVOA, allowing the sixth-most PPR points per game to running backs. The reason why we need to keep him in the lukewarm section is that his upside is capped by Singletary's presence. You can do worse as your RB3/FLEX in this spot, however.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Sanders has had a resurgence playing with Allen in Buffalo, catching 24-of-39 targets for 413 yards and four touchdowns, ranking as WR22 in PPR points per game. Like teammate Diggs, Sanders has a terrific matchup against the Dolphins this week. The veteran is the preferred choice over Cole Beasley because of air yards (673 to 243) and aDOT (17.3 to 5.7). I'm leaving Sanders in the lukewarm section because there's always risk that he can have a down game in favor of Diggs or Beasley, but the veteran looks like a rock-solid WR3.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -3
Implied Total: Jaguars (20.0) vs. Seahawks (23.0)
Pace: Jaguars (10th) vs. Seahawks (14th)
Scheme: Jaguars (54% Pass, 46% Run) vs. Seahawks (57% Pass, 43% Run)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -7.8% Pass DVOA (28th), 8.9% Rush DVOA (2nd)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 19.0% Pass DVOA (25th), -16.6% Rush DVOA (11th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 50.7% Pass DVOA (32nd), -9.7% Rush DVOA (20th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 33.5% Pass DVOA (7th), -0.7% Rush DVOA (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
Robinson has made that Travis Etienne pick look ridiculous in recent weeks, combining for 505 total yards in his last four games. He's put up a 72.55% opportunity share during that span. Robinson is now firmly entrenched as an RB1. He takes on a Seahawks defense that ranks 11th in rush DVOA but has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to running backs. Robinson is the focal point of this offense. Look for him to get it done once again in this spot.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
The Seahawks passing game has been held back by Geno Smith, but Metcalf's ability to win downfield keeps him in play as an every-week WR2. He's combined for eight receptions for 154 yards and a touchdown in his last two games, including an 84-yard touchdown against the Saints on Monday Night Football. While the low volume is concerning (12 targets), this is a terrific matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 32nd in pass DVOA, giving up 10.01 yards per target (31st) to wide receivers.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players in this spot. Both defenses are exploitable.
Other Matchups:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence has shown some growth as a passer in his last three games, completing 65-of-98 passes (66.3%) for 796 yards (8.12 Y/A) with two touchdowns and one interception. He's also added 75 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts. Lawrence ranks 14th among quarterbacks in Expected Fantasy Points per game. Perhaps the rookie can start to emerge as an appealing streamer in fantasy leagues. This is a good spot against a Seahawks defense that ranks 25th in pass DVOA.
Marvin Jones Jr. (WR, JAX)
Jones is coming off one of his best games of the season, catching 7-of-10 targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. Since D.J. Chark went down in Week 4, Jones leads the team with a 40.78% air yard share and 20.27% target share. He's definitely the preferred wideout in this offense, but we've seen some volatility: 25 yards or fewer in two games. There's also risk that the Jags have some success on the ground, which would limit passing volume. This is why we have to keep Jones in the lukewarm section.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX)
Shenault has been one of the biggest disappointments this season, putting up only 26 receptions for 306 yards in six games this season. The good news is that he's put up seven or more targets in two of his last three games. The bad news is that he continues to be targeted at low depth, as evidenced by his 6.0 aDOT. Perhaps the Jags will try to get Shenault involved more coming out of their bye. He needs to be given opportunities to get the ball in space, as he's excellent at breaking tackles. Shenault is an upside WR4 in this spot, but he's clearly behind Jones in the pecking order here, at least for the time being.
Alex Collins (RB, SEA)
Collins was limited to only 35 yards on 16 carries, stymied by one of the best run defenses in football in the New Orleans Saints. This was Rashaad Penny's first game of the season, so it was interesting to see how the usage would play out. Collins put up a 62% opportunity share, a decrease from his 77% mark from the previous week. It's likely that Penny will continue to eat into Collins' workload, which impacts his ceiling moving forward. Having said that, this is a good matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 20th in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. Still, Collins is a middling FLEX that stays in the lukewarm section.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Lockett's season has been totally ruined by Russell Wilson's injury, as the veteran wideout has combined for four receptions for 47 yards in Geno Smith's two starts. Lockett has been limited to 35 yards or fewer in four of his last five games. The good news is that this is a fantastic matchup against the Jaguars, but it's hard to get too excited with how his production has looked in recent weeks. Lockett is a volatile WR3 in a good spot here. Russ can't come back soon enough for those who roster Lockett. I can't put him in the 'Hate' section because of the matchup.
Additional Notes:
Gerald Everett is a potential streamer against a Jags defense that struggles against tight ends (30th).
Dan Arnold is also in play if you're desperate at tight end. He's posted a 17.57% target share since joining Jacksonville.
New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -5.5
Total: Patriots (21.5) vs. Chargers (27.0)
Pace: Patriots (18th) vs. Chargers (1st)
Scheme: Patriots (61% Pass, 39% Run) vs. Chargers (65% Pass, 35% Run)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 14.6% Pass DVOA (18th), -7.9% Rush DVOA (14th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: -8.8% Pass DVOA (5th), 8.3% Rush DVOA (32nd)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 7.5% Pass DVOA (14th), -15.2% Rush DVOA (14th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 20.8% Pass DVOA (13th), -5.3% Rush DVOA (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Harris is rolling right now, rushing 32 times for 207 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games. He has put up a 59.24% opportunity share during that span. Harris has put up 77.7 Expected Fantasy Points (16th among RBs) with 7.0 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. This is a smash spot against a Chargers defense that ranks 32nd in rush DVOA, allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to running backs. We could see the Patriots lean on Harris in an effort to keep Justin Herbert and company off the field. Harris looks like a strong RB2 in this spot.
Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
Henry has found the endzone in four consecutive games, catching 14-of-19 targets for 155 yards during that span. Henry has put up 13.4 Fantasy Points Above Expectation, which ranks 4th among tight ends. This is a revenge game against his former team in the Chargers, who are allowing the second-most PPR points per game to opposing tight ends, including 10.58 yards per target (31st). While the Pats will likely try to lean on the running game, they could be forced to air it out if they fall behind here, which bodes well for Henry. Jonnu Smith is the clear-cut number-two tight end here, but he had a season-high 52 yards last week, so monitor his usage in this matchup.
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert takes on a Patriots defense that ranks 14th in pass DVOA, allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, the Chargers are coming off a bye as a pass-heavy home favorite with a high implied total. This passing game ranks 13th in pass DVOA. It's hard to be too concerned about this Patriots defense because I believe the Chargers offense is matchup-proof. Herbert ranks 8th with 20.9 Expected Fantasy Points per game. I think we'll see a bounce-back after a poor performance against the Ravens prior to the bye week.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Williams is in the midst of a career season, but he's also put up 30 yards or less in two of his last three games, demonstrating that he can be volatile at times. Having said that, you have to love his weekly ceiling. The bye week came at the perfect time for Big Mike, as he was dealing with a knee injury. Early reports are that he should be at 100 percent for this game. The Patriots rank 18th in PPR points per game to wideouts, so this is a good matchup. This Pats defense got torched by CeeDee Lamb for nine receptions, 149 yards, and two touchdowns. Williams is a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
Meyers continues to see strong usage, leading the Patriots in target share (23.89%), but this is a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 5th in pass DVOA, giving up the fewest PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. We've also seen Kendrick Bourne play more of a role in recent weeks, as he's totaled 143 yards in his last two games. This looks like a game where the Pats' best strategy for success would be to emphasize the running game and tight ends. Leave Meyers on your bench here.
Jared Cook (TE, LAC)
Cook has been held to fewer than 30 yards in four of his last five games, making him a touchdown-dependent tight end, albeit in a pass-heavy offense. The veteran has put up 3.0 Fantasy Points Below Expectation, while Donald Parham has put up 7.5 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. While Cook gets more work, it wouldn't shock me to see Parham steal a touchdown. Cook is an underwhelming tight end streamer against a Patriots defense allowing the second-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends.
Other Matchups:
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler is another Chargers player who should have a better week coming off the bye after being held to only 45 total yards against the Ravens. The Patriots have given up 46 receptions (27th), 56 targets (27th), and 7.43 yards per target (27th) to opposing running backs. Ekeler leads running backs with 34.0 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. The problem is that Ekeler popped up on the injury report with a hip issue after Wednesday's practice, causing him to miss out on Thursday and Friday. If he can't suit up, this is a backfield to avoid.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen has been a bit underwhelming lately, putting up 50 yards or fewer in three of his last four games. It's starting to look like he's the clear number-three option in this offense, behind Ekeler and Williams. Allen has put up 12.6 Fantasy Points Below Expectation, while Williams has been 18.5 Fantasy Points Above Expectation. While you're still firing up Allen as a WR2, he has much less upside than Williams right now. Allen is more of a floor pick until we see him show more of a ceiling. If Ekeler is out, that changes things, as Allen would soak up those underneath targets. He would move to the 'Love' section.
Additional Notes:
Mac Jones isn't fantasy-relevant against this tough pass defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Buccaneers -5
Implied Total: Buccaneers (27.75) vs. Saints (22.75)
Pace: Buccaneers (16th) vs. Saints (24th)
Scheme: Buccaneers (65% Pass, 35% Run) vs. Saints (50% Pass, 50% Run)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 51.1% Pass DVOA (2nd), -1.6% Rush DVOA (6th)
Saints Def. DVOA: -5.8% Pass DVOA (6th), -33.1% Rush DVOA (2nd)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 0.2% Pass DVOA (11th), -25.7% Rush DVOA (4th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 26.1% Pass DVOA (9th), -15.0% Rush DVOA (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Chris Godwin (WR, TB)
Godwin put up terrific production last week without Antonio Brown, catching 8-of-11 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. With AB expected to be out for another couple of weeks, Godwin should continue to see an uptick in targets. Godwin currently ranks 8th among wideouts with 94.4 Expected Fantasy Points. He looks like a borderline WR1 in a game where we could see Mike Evans struggle on the perimeter. The Saints rank 25th in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
Kamara is finally being used in the passing game once again, catching 15-of-19 targets for 179 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. That's the kind of mouth-watering usage we were expecting when we saw that Michael Thomas would be out multiple weeks. Kamara has a tough matchup on the ground against a Bucs defense that ranks 4th in rush DVOA, but that doesn't matter because Kamara will go to work in the passing game. The Saints just acquired Mark Ingram to take away those runs up the gut, keeping Kamara fresh for dump-offs and screens, aka more valuable touches. Kamara is back to normal usage right now and needs to be considered an elite RB1 on a weekly basis going forward.
Matchups We Hate:
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans also had a big game without AB, putting up six receptions for 76 yards and three touchdowns. The problem here is that he has a poor track record against Saints cornerback Marshon Lattimore. In their last five meetings, Evans has combined for 10 receptions for 138 yards and two touchdowns, which averages out to two receptions and 27.6 yards per game. That's enough of a history to leave me feeling bearish on Evans in this matchup. He looks like a volatile WR3 in this spot.
Marquez Callaway (WR, NO)
Callaway has a chance to get loose downfield in a potential pass-heavy game script due to the Bucs' pass-funnel defense, but there's no way we can trust him with how widely distributed the target share is among Saints' wideouts. Callaway leads the way with a 19.05% target share, but Tre'Quan Smith returned to the lineup last week, which complicates the situation. You also have Kenny Stills (11.32% target share) playing a role and Deonte Harris (13.91% target share) on the mend. This is a situation to avoid.
Other Matchups:
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady has been absolutely phenomenal this season, but he has two things working against him here, which keeps him in the lukewarm section. For one, the Saints defense is legit, ranking 6th in pass DVOA and tied for the third-fewest fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Secondly, Brady hasn't been nearly as good on the road, averaging 0.7 fewer yards per attempt with only three touchdowns in three games. Obviously, we're keeping Brady as a QB1, but temper your expectations in this tough matchup.
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
We all know how Fournette has been an RB1 after taking over this backfield, but like Brady, Uncle Lenny has a tough matchup here. The Saints rank 2nd in rush DVOA, giving up the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing running backs. The one thing Fournette has going here is that he can still provide RB2 production on volume alone. However, it's hard to envision a scenario where he puts up an efficient game in this spot, which is why he's in the lukewarm section.
Jameis Winston (QB, NO)
Winston gets his revenge game against his former team. He's starting to play a bit better lately, throwing eight touchdowns with only one interception in his last four games. The Saints are also airing it out at a higher rate lately, as Winston has averaged 32.5 pass attempts in his last two games after averaging 21.5 in his previous four. This game projects as a pass-heavy game script, so we'll put Winston in the lukewarm section as a potential streamer and DFS tournament punt play.
Additional Notes:
TE Rob Gronkowski returned to practice, keep an eye on his status. I wouldn't start him in his first game back.
Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos -3
Implied Total: Football Team (20.5) vs. Broncos (23.5)
Pace: Football Team (4th) vs. Broncos (32nd)
Scheme: Football Team (59% Pass, 41% Run) vs. Broncos (58% Pass, 42% Run)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 8.7% Pass DVOA (22nd), -23.2% Rush DVOA (27th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 18.7% Pass DVOA (24th), -4.9% Rush DVOA (26th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 29.2% Pass DVOA (29th), -21.2% Rush DVOA (8th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 19.9% Pass DVOA (14th), -13.5% Rush DVOA (19th)
Matchups We Love:
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Heinicke turned in a solid fantasy performance last week, completing 25-of-37 passes for 268 yards with one touchdown and one interception. He also added 95 yards on 10 carries on the ground. Washington could struggle against this Broncos offense with Jeudy back in the lineup since they've been so poor against the pass. This could result in a positive game script for Heinicke, who has put up 147.2 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranks 6th among quarterbacks. He's a sneaky streamer this week.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin is coming off a terrific game against the Packers where he caught 7-of-12 targets for 122 yards and one touchdown. He has now posted a 48.11% air yard share (2nd) and 29.36% target share (5th). McLaurin has put up 101.2 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranks 5th among wide receivers. This is one of the most talented wideouts in the league, currently seeing massive volume, facing a Broncos defense that ranks 24th in pass DVOA. They have given up 1,177 yards to receivers, which ranks 20th in the NFL.
Teddy Bridgewater (QB, DEN)
Bridgewater is another sneaky streamer this week because he's put up modest production lately, but he's facing a pass-funnel Washington defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA, giving up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Bridgewater gets Jerry Jeudy back this week, giving him an impressive set of pass-catchers at his disposal. Washington's defense is likely to really struggle against these Broncos weapons, which could turn this game into a shootout.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Sutton looks like an absolute alpha WR1, leading the NFL with 948 air yards. While Jeudy is back to take away some targets, we have to lean towards Sutton given his performance this season as well as the fact that it's Jeudy's first game back in the lineup. Sutton has put up 90.7 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranks 10th in the NFL. Washington has given up the second-most PPR points per game to wide receivers, including 1,422 yards on 8.62 yards per target.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this game. These are two of the most underachieving defenses in football. This game has sneaky shootout potential.
Other Matchups:
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Gibson has really been limited by his shin injury, putting up 60 rushing yards or fewer in four of his last five games. He's only been targeted 11 times during that stretch. The good news is that he faces a Broncos defense that ranks 26th in rush DVOA. They just got gashed by D'Ernest Johnson on Thursday Night Football. The bad news is that Washington's running game is nowhere near as good as Cleveland's, as they rank 27th in rush DVOA. The worse news is that J.D. McKissic continues to play a prominent role, totaling 16 targets in his last two games. However, Gibson was not on the injury report this week, which makes me feel better about firing him up as an RB2.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS)
Seals-Jones continues to deliver with Logan Thomas on the shelf, catching 15-of-21 targets for 150 yards and one touchdown in three games. He's played on almost 100 percent of the snaps in the last three weeks. This kind of usage keeps him in play as one of the more appealing tight end streamers on the slate. However, the Broncos have been tough on tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to the position this season. For that reason, we need to leave Seals-Jones in the lukewarm section.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
Williams continues to look like the more explosive back compared to veteran Melvin Gordon. However, we continue to see a fairly even split in opportunity share between Williams (47.4%) and Gordon (50.5%). Washington's run defense has been their strength, as they rank 8th in rush DVOA, allowing only 3.45 yards per carry (2nd). I project the Broncos to focus on beating Washington through the air in this game. Perhaps one (or both) of these backs can make a bit of an impact in the passing game, but we have to leave them in the lukewarm section given their split usage and tough matchup.
Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)
Jeudy finally returns to the lineup, adding another terrific playmaker to this offense. The second-year wideout was off to a tremendous start in Week 1, catching 6-of-7 targets for 72 yards in three quarters against the Giants. This is a terrific matchup, but we need to temper our expectations because it's his first game back, plus Courtland Sutton really emerged as the alpha in Jeudy's absence. I'd play Jeudy as a WR3 if I really needed a wide receiver, but I prefer rolling with Sutton here. The problem is that he missed Friday's practice and hasn't been activated off IR yet. There's still a chance that he misses this game.
UPDATE: Jeudy has officially been activated from IR, and is expected to play this week.
Noah Fant (TE, DEN)
Fant could see a hit to his target share with Jeudy's return, more than Sutton because Fant usually sees underneath targets, which could now start going to Jeudy. He takes on a Washington defense that ranks 19th in PPR points per game to tight ends, so this is an exploitable matchup. However, we need to temper our expectations until we see more clarity in how the usage will look with Jeudy back in the fold. You're still firing up Fant as a Top-8 tight end, but this isn't a spot to love.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Cowboys -2.5
Implied Total: Cowboys (28.75) vs. Vikings (26.25)
Pace: Cowboys (3rd) vs. Vikings (12th)
Scheme: Cowboys (58% Pass, 42% Run) vs. Vikings (61% Pass, 39% Run)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 50.7% Pass DVOA (3rd), -4.7% Rush DVOA (10th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -10.4% Pass DVOA (3rd), -6.7% Rush DVOA (24th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -0.6% Pass DVOA (10th), -14.8% Rush DVOA (15th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 34.9% Pass DVOA (6th), -24.2% Rush DVOA (28th)
Matchups We Love:
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Zeke continues to ball out this season, ranking as RB4 since Week 2, removing the dud he had in the opener against that stout Bucs run defense. Elliott has put up 97.3 Expected Fantasy Points (9th) with 9.3 Fantasy Points Above Expectation (13th). The Cowboys running game has been absolutely dominant, as the team ranks 1st with 5.36 Adjusted Line Yards. This is a good spot against a Vikings defense that ranks 24th in rush DVOA, allowing 4.64 YPC (28th).
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Lamb came into the bye coming off his best game of the season, catching 9-of-11 targets for 149 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 2, Lamb is averaging 17.0 PPR points per game (WR15), while Amari Cooper has put up 10.5 (WR53). It's clear to me that Lamb is starting to separate himself from the veteran. He takes on a Vikings defense that ranks 15th in PPR points per game to wideouts, but this projects as a favorable game script in a potential shootout, so we can safely fire up Lamb as a WR1 here. However, if Dak Prescott can't play, Lamb goes to the lukewarm section.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Cook looked back to himself in the win over the Panthers before the bye, rushing 29 times for 140 yards and a touchdown. He should be fresh with the week of rest just in time to take on a Dallas defense that was gashed by Damien Harris for 101 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. The Cowboys rank 15th in rush DVOA, tied for 11th in PPR points per game allowed to running backs, but like with Lamb, this is a great game environment for Cook. Consider him an elite RB1 in this spot.
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins is having a pretty solid season, completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,769 yards (7.4 Y/A) with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. He's coming off a great game against the Panthers where he threw for 373 yards and three touchdowns. This is a great game environment in a projected shootout. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Add each of these factors together and you have an appealing streamer for this week.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Jefferson currently ranks 6th with a 41.12% air yard share and 13th with a 25.76% target share. He's also 6th with 14.8 Expected Fantasy Points per game. This is a high-end WR1 who could be in line for a spike week in this projected shootout. The Cowboys rank 27th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, so this is a terrific matchup. It's going to be interesting to see Jefferson square off with cornerback Trevon Diggs. I think Jefferson will get the best of this aggressive, ball-hawking corner, just like Kendrick Bourne did in Dallas' last game.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
Thielen came alive in his last game before the bye, catching 11-of-13 targets for 126 yards and a touchdown. You could also see him refreshed following the week of rest. This is a great matchup against the Cowboys and you have to love how the target distribution is funneled towards Thielen and Justin Jefferson, as the two have combined for a 47% target share. Thielen looks like a WR2 with upside in a game that should see a lot of points and we all know how Kirk Cousins likes to target him in the red zone.
Matchups We Hate:
There are no matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott has attempted 83 passes in his last two games, including 51 against the Patriots. This comes after three consecutive weeks with 27 attempts or fewer. This is big because it demonstrates Prescott's upside with game scripts where the Cowboys have to play from behind. This could be one of those games in this projected shootout. Both these teams rank in the Top-12 in Pace, so we could see some fireworks here. While the Vikings rank 6th in pass DVOA and are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, that's a bit inflated by games against Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold. The problem is that Prescott's status is in question as he deals with a calf injury. Keep an eye on his status.
UPDATE: Prescott is listed as questionable, and this is a situation to keep an eye on.
Amari Cooper (WR, DAL)
Cooper has really not gotten it done lately, combining for only 17 receptions for 234 yards and two touchdowns in his last five games. He's been limited by injury as well as the Cowboys' dominant running game, defensive improvements, and the emergence of Dalton Schultz. Cooper is starting to fall down towards the WR3 range, especially against a Vikings defense that has been effective against the pass. Having said that, the game environment keeps Cooper in the lukewarm section. Perhaps he'll look more fresh coming out of the bye. Michael Gallup looks ready to return, but we have to leave him on the bench until see a full workload. If Dak can't go, Cooper moves to the 'Hate' section.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Schultz just continues to get it done, combining for 23 receptions for 296 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games. That's elite production, as Schultz comes in as TE2 in PPR points per game during that stretch. However, he could see a downgrade in targets with Michael Gallup expected to be back in the lineup. Schultz goes up against a Vikings defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends, which keeps him in the lukewarm section.
Additional Notes:
TE Tyler Conklin is also on the streaming radar given the game environment.
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