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Welcome to our Week 16 matchups analysis and starts/sits column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every matchup from every Sunday game to help you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. We'll also be updating this as injury reports come in so check back often.
For the vast majority of leagues it is championship week! That means starting or sitting the wrong guy could be the difference between owning your league or crying all off-season. When in doubt, go with the player with the better matchup. But don't sit your studs, that's just stupid.
I'll be on Reddit each Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning to answer all your start/sit questions as well. You can also reach me directly on Twitter @ChrisMangano if you can't wait. Don't forget there are two Saturday games this week so get those lineups set early!
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Week 16 NFL Game Notes
Saturday and Monday games:
- You can read about the two Saturday matchups here
- You can read about the two Monday night matchups here
Important note and credits about data used in this article:
- All snap counts taken from Football Outsiders. Adjusted line yards also taken from Football outsiders. You can read more here.
- Success rate is taken from Sharp Football Stats (Warren Sharp). You can read more about it here.
- Wide receiver snap percentages and corner grades/stats are taken from Pro Football Focus.
Week 16 Sunday Matchups - 1:00 PM ET Games
Lions at Bengals
Matchups We Love:
Theo Riddick (RB, DET)
Since Ameer Abdullah's benching three weeks ago, Riddick has 27 carries and 18 targets. While he has split carries with Tion Green (RB, DET), he has handled most or all of the passing game work. He gets a great matchup this week against a Bengals defense that ranks 29th in adjusted line yards and has allowed nine straight top-12 scoring weeks. Riddick has real upside in this one, though his usage makes him a risk. Still, he can be considered a low-end RB2 especially in PPR.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Before suffering a concussion in Week 13, Mixon had seen 20 or more carries in back to back games. He's ready to return this week and gets a Lions defense that ranks 25th in adjusted line yards and 19th in yards per attempt. The risk here is that the Lions pull away from the Bengals and the team abandon's the run, but with such a good matchup Mixon is still on the RB2 radar.
Matchups We Hate:
Marvin Jones (WR, DET)
The Bengals have been a disaster lately, but one area they have excelled in is shutting down outside receivers. On the year they have allowed just eight touchdowns and give up 1.35 PPR points per target. Jones is too good to bench but owners should temper expectations.
A.J. Green (WR, CIN)
Green has at least eight targets in four of the last five, but will draw another tough matchup after being shut down by Xavier Rhodes last week. He'll have to matchup with Darius Slay who has allowed just three touchdowns on the year and 1.43 PPR points per target. Green can't be benched, but owners should temper expectations.
Other Matchups:
Matthew Stafford (QB, DET) has had back-to-back solid games and gets a Bengals defense that ranks eighth in yards per game and seventh in touchdown percentage, but four top-12 scoring weeks in the last six games. Stafford has been one of the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks this year and is a QB1 start again.
Golden Tate (WR, DET) had just five targets after having at least eight in three straight as Stafford spread the ball around. He gets a good matchup against the Bengals slot corners that allow 1.61 PPR points per target. Tate is a fringe WR1 in this matchup.
Eric Ebron (TE, DET) now has 18 targets over the last two games, and gets a good matchup against a Bengals defense that has allowed six top-12 scoring weeks and has only held three tight ends outside the top-24. With his target share and the matchup, Ebron is a fringe TE1.
Andy Dalton (QB, CIN) and the entire Bengals offense has struggled of late but he is in a rebound spot against a Lions defense that ranks 28th in yards per game and 10th in touchdown percentage. They've allowed eight top-20 scoring weeks and have only held two quarterbacks outside the top-24. Dalton is a solid QB2.
Tyler Kroft (TE, CIN) doesn't have more than four targets over the last five games, but does get a good matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed six top-12 scoring weeks. Still, Kroft is a risky start and is barely on the TE2 radar.
Dolphins at Chiefs
Matchups We Love:
Kenyan Drake (RB, MIA)
Over the last three games without Damien Williams, Drake has at least 16 carries and five targets in each. He should once again get all the work he can handle against a Chiefs defense that ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and 2oth in yards per attempt, and has given up eight top-12 scoring weeks. Drake is a solid RB1 start.
Jarvis Landry (WR, MIA)
Landry now has double-digit targets in three of the last six, and at least eight in five of those. He should be heavily targeted once again facing the Chiefs slot corners who have allowed four touchdowns and 1.84 PPR points per target. Landry is a solid WR1 start especially in PPR leagues.
Kareem Hunt (RB, KC)
After being a forgotten man in the Chiefs offense, Hunt now has 49 carries and 12 targets over the last two games and gets a fantastic matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 24th in adjusted line yards and has allowed eight top-12 scoring weeks. Hunt is a locked-in must start.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce has at least seven targets in four of the last five, and should be leaned on by Alex Smith against a Dolphins defense that has allowed nine top-12 scoring weeks to the position. Kelce is a locked-in must start.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Jay Cutler (QB, MIA) disappointed coming off a three touchdown game against the Patriots, but could rebound against a Chiefs defense that ranks 26th in yards per game and 12th in touchdown percentage. They have held Derek Carr and Phillip Rivers to finishes of QB22 and QB28 respectively. Still, Cutler should be a low-end QB2 start.
DeVante Parker (WR, MIA) has now out-targeted Kenny Stills (WR, MIA) in back to back games and seems to have retaken the number two role. Both are in a good spot against a Chiefs secondary that has given up 13 touchdowns and allows 1.69 PPR points per target. Still, both are hard to trust as you never know who Cutler will favor. Both have to be considered flex plays at this point.
Alex Smith (QB, KC) has two games with 18 or more fantasy points, but three games with 14 or less since the team's Week 10 bye. He gets a good matchup this week, however, against a Dolphins defense that ranks 15th in yards per game and 24th in touchdown percentage. They've been a boom/bust defense for quarterbacks, allowing eight top-14 scoring weeks but holding five to finishes of 20th or worse. Still, this is a good spot for Smith and he is a low-end QB1.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC) only has six targets in each of the last two games, but he's making the most of them as he has nine catches for 163 yards and a touchdown over that span. He will need to be efficient once again facing a Dolphins secondary that has given up just eight touchdowns and 1.55 PPR points per target. Hill has big time upside regardless of matchup and is a solid WR1.
Bills at Patriots
Matchups We Love:
LeSean McCoy (RB, BUF)
McCoy has 20 or more carries in three of the last four games, and excluding the blizzard game has four or five targets in three straight. He should once again be heavily involved against a Patriots defense that ranks 31st in adjusted line yards and dead last in yards per attempt. They have allowed 10 top-14 scoring weeks as well. Shady is a must start RB1.
Kelvin Benjamin (WR, BUF)
Benjamin has been dealing with a knee injury that has limited him both in the games and in practice, but if he plays he has a great matchup against Malcom Butler. On the year Butler has given up six touchdowns and 1.76 PPR points per target. The risk with Benjamin is the knee and him not playing a full compliment of snaps and because of that he can't be considered more than a flex even in a good matchup.
Dion Lewis (RB, NE)
Lewis now has 13 or more carries in four of the last six and should benefit from the injury to Rex Burkhead. He gets a fantastic matchup against a Bills defense that ranks 27th in yards per attempt and has been unable to stop the run the second half of the season. There is a chance Mike Gillislee (RB, NE) cuts into his workload, but Lewis has high-end RB2 value in this one.
Rob Gronkowski (TE, NE)
Gronkowski has historically owned the Bills, and posted a nine catch, 147 yard day against this defense in Buffalo back in Week 13. You are never not playing him, but this week he is a locked-in must start and could finish as overall TE1.
Matchups We Hate:
Tom Brady (QB, NE)
Brady has had three straight mediocre games and could have a fourth against a Bills defense that ranks 17th in yards per game but first in touchdown percentage. They've only allowed two top-12 scoring weeks all year, and held Brady to 9 fantasy points in Buffalo three weeks ago. Playing at home helps, and you can't bench him, but owners should temper expectations.
Other Matchups:
Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF) returned from his one game injury and put up a great fantasy day with 23 points. It was his first game with over 20 points since Week 9. He may be hard pressed to duplicate that against a Patriots defense that is much improved and just held the red-hot Ben Roethlisberger to a QB12 finish. Still, this matchup is by no means one to fear and Taylor should be a solid QB2.
After five straight games with five or less targets, Charles Clay (TE, BUF) saw nine on Sunday. The Patriots are just an OK matchup for tight ends as they have allowed five top-12 scoring weeks. With Kelvin Benjamin questionable, Clay could once again see plenty of targets. He is a high-end TE2 start.
Brandin Cooks (WR, NE) will likely lose targets with the return of Chris Hogan (WR, NE). In Hogan's last healthy games the targets were seven to five in favor of Cooks. The Bills are just an OK matchup as they've allowed only seven touchdowns and 1.47 PPR points to outside receivers. Cooks can still be viewed as a high-end WR2 while Hogan is more of a touchdown dependent flex start. Danny Amendola (WR, NE) only has more than four targets twice over the last six games, and likely will be the fourth option with Hogan healthy. The Bills are just an OK matchup for slot receivers allowing 1.58 PPR points per target. Amendola can't be considered more than a desperation play in PPR formats.
Browns at Bears
Matchups We Love:
Mitch Trubisky (QB, CHI)
Trubisky only has one game with more than 15 fantasy points over the last six, and two abysmal single digit games over that stretch. He has a chance for a positive day against a Browns defense that ranks 21st in yards per game and 28th in touchdown percentage, and has allowed 12 top-15 scoring weeks including four straight top-12 weeks. Trubisky makes a low-end QB2 start with upside.
Adam Shaheen (TE, CHI)
Shaheen only has 12 targets over his last four games, but looks set to return from his chest injury. He gets a great matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed nine top-12 scoring weeks and 12 top-14 weeks. He is a boom/bust start only but could boom this week.
Matchups We Hate:
DeShone Kizer (QB, CLE)
Since the team's Week 9 bye, Kizer has three games with at least 19 points, and three games with 14 or less including two games of seven and five. This could be another down week as he gets a Bears defense that ranks 10th in yards per game, seventh in touchdown percentage and fifth in sack rate. They've only allowed three top-12 scoring weeks, and seven inside the top-20. Kizer has serious downside and should not be trusted in any format.
Josh Gordon (WR, CLE)
Gordon has seen 11 targets in two of his three games played, and continues to be Kizer's clear favorite target. He'll draw a tough matchup against a Bears secondary that makes teams number one receivers a priority, having given up just five touchdowns and 1.42 PPR points per target. They held A.J. Green to just five catches on 12 targets in Week 14. Gordon has plenty of upside, but in a tough matchup can't be considered more than a WR2.
Jordan Howard (RB, CHI)
Howard has only one game with more than 20 carries over the last six, and doesn't have more than 15 in the other five. He draws a tough matchup against a Browns defense that ranks second in adjusted line yards and fourth in yards per attempt. Given the matchup and his inconsistent workload, he is tough to trust as anything more than a RB2.
Other Matchups:
After having 10 or more carries in five straight, Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE) only had five on Sunday as the Browns were throttled by the Ravens. He should get more chances in a game that figures to be closer, and gets a good matchup against a Bears team that ranks 26th in adjusted line yards and 17th in yards per attempt. Despite the matchup, Crowell can't be considered more than a flex start. Duke Johnson (RB, CLE) has four or more targets in six straight, but has only had more than seven carries once over that stretch. The Bears are just OK against pass catching backs, ranking 18th in success rate and seventh in yards per attempt. Johnson is a high-end flex in PPR formats.
Kendall Wright (WR, CHI) has 24 targets over the last two games and should once again be Trubisky's favorite option facing the Browns slot corners who have allowed four touchdowns and 1.76 PPR points per target. Wright is a risky start in standard formats, but should be a solid WR3 in PPR.
Buccaneers at Panthers
Matchups We Love:
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Newton likely helped many fantasy owners reach the championships with a 31 point performance against the Packers, and could once again carry teams against a Buccaneers defense that ranks dead last in yards per game and 17th in touchdown percentage. They've given up six top-10 scoring weeks as well. Newton is a must start in a great matchup.
Jonathan Stewart (RB, CAR)
Stewart has 15 or more carries in three of the last five, and at least 11 carries in each of those. He could get plenty of work in a game the Panthers are expected to win easily, and gets a great matchup against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 23rd in yards per attempt and has allowed eight top-13 scoring weeks. Stewart makes a solid flex start in this matchup.
Devin Funchess (WR, CAR)
Funchess is dealing with a shoulder injury and his status is questionable, but if he plays he will be in a great spot against a Buccaneers secondary that has given up eight touchdowns and 1.79 PPR points per target. Funchess had at least seven targets in three straight before hurting his shoulder, and should be a solid WR2 with upside in this one.
Matchups We Hate:
Doug Martin (RB, TB) / Peyton Barber (RB, TB)
With Martin inactive in Week 15, Barber got just 13 carries and three targets in a soft matchup versus the Falcons. Martin is set to return, and neither he nor Barber can be trusted against a Panthers defense that ranks sixth in adjusted line yards and has allowed only four top-12 scoring weeks all year.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans is coming off his best game in seven weeks, but could struggle again as he is likely to face shadow coverage from James Bradberry. On the year, Bradberry has just two touchdowns and allows only 1.79 PPR points per target. Evans should see a boost in targets with DeSean Jackson out, and despite the matchup is still a fringe WR1 play but owners should temper expectations.
Other Matchups:
Since returning from injury, Jameis Winston (QB, TB) has at least 16 fantasy points in all three games and could continue that streak against a Panthers defense that ranks 11th in yards per game but 23rd in touchdown percentage. They've given up eight top-14 scoring weeks and three top-nine weeks in the last four. Winston is a high-end QB2 in this one.
With DeSean Jackson (WR, TB) ruled out, Chris Godwin (WR, TB) will assume the number two role. In Week 10 with Mike Evans out, Godwin tied Jackson for the team lead with 10 targets. The Panthers corners not named James Bradberry have allowed six touchdowns and 1.72 PPR points per target so opportunity will be there for Godwin. Still, he is a risk and can't be considered more than a flex start.
Cameron Brate (TE, TB) should see all the targets he can handle with O.J. Howard headed to IR, but is dealing with his own hip and knee issue. The Panthers are just an OK matchup, as they've allowed just five top-12 scoring weeks all year. Brate is a risky high-end TE2 play.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR) is coming off a season-high 12 carries and has five or more targets in four of the last five games. While it's hard to predict he will see double-digit carries again, his work in the passing game gives him plenty of value. The Buccaneers are OK against pass catching backs, ranking 14th in success rate and 19th in yards per attempt. The risk here is the Panthers build a big lead and just pound the ball with Stewart. Still, McCaffrey should do enough damage early and is a low-end RB1 in PPR.
Greg Olsen (TE, CAR) finally looked healthy in Week 15 and led the team with 12 targets. For as bad as the Buccaneers are on defense, they are OK against tight ends allowing only five top-12 scoring weeks all year. Still, Olsen looks to have returned to form and is a solid TE1 start.
Falcons at Saints
Matchups We Love:
Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL) / Tevin Coleman (RB, ATL)
Coleman is set to return after missing one game with a concussion and both he and Freeman should be excellent starts against a Saints defense that ranks 22nd in yards per attempt and has allowed nine top-14 scoring weeks. Freeman can be considered a low-end RB1 while Coleman is a solid flex start.
Mohamed Sanu (WR, ATL)
Sanu has at least five targets in five of the last six games, and could see more as Jones will be battling Lattimore. The Saints struggle out of the slot allowing 2.01 PPR points per target. Sanu is a low-end WR2 with upside in this one.
Drew Brees (QB, NO)
Brees hasn't scored less than 14 fantasy points over the last five, and has three games with 18 or more over that stretch. He could once again score 18 plus against a Falcons defense that ranks 12th in yards per game and 13th in touchdown percentage, but has given up seven top-12 scoring weeks including three straight. Brees is a solid QB1 start.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
After missing most of Week 14's game with a concussion, Kamara returned in Week 15 and got 12 carries and seven targets. He gets a Falcons defense that ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards and 17th in success rate on throws to running backs, but is allowing over six catches and almost 50 yards per game to running backs. Kamara is a locked-in must start.
Matchups We Hate:
Julio Jones (WR, ATL)
Jones could not repeat his performance from Week 12 against the Buccaneers as he managed just three catches for 54 yards on eight targets. His owners may be in for another disappointment as he is facing shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore. On the season, Lattimore has yet to give up a touchdown and allows just 1.13 PPR points per target. You can't bench Jones, but owners should once again temper expectations.
Austin Hooper (TE, ATL)
Hooper has only 17 targets over the last five games and gets a Saints defense that has only allowed two top-12 scoring weeks all year. Hooper is barely on the TE2 radar in this one.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL) once again underwhelmed in a great matchup, and now has zero QB10 or better finishes on the season, though he continues to offer a safe floor. He gets an OK matchup against a Saints defense that ranks just seventh in yards per game but 15th in touchdown percentage. The loss of safety Kenny Vaccaro hurts, but it should be noted in the three games he missed this year the Saints held Jameis Winston/Ryan Fitzpatrick to a QB21 finish, Tyrod Taylor to a QB27 finish and Bryce Petty to a QB26 finish. Ryan is a class above those but still can't be considered more than a high-floor QB2.
Mark Ingram (RB, NO) doesn't have more than 14 carries in five straight games, but does have at least five targets in three straight. The Falcons are a good matchup on the ground, ranking 22nd in adjusted line yards, but are more vulnerable against pass catching backs. Still, Ingram is a solid RB1 play.
Michael Thomas (WR, NO) has double-digit targets in four of the last six and at least eight in each of those, and should once again see plenty of looks against a Falcons defense that has allowed eight touchdowns and 1.63 PPR points per target. Thomas is a locked-in WR1 start.
Broncos at Redskins
Matchups We Love:
Vernon Davis (TE, WAS)
After disappearing for two weeks, Davis now has 11 targets over the last two games and gets a Broncos defense that struggles against tight ends. On the year they have allowed eight top-12 scoring weeks. Davis is a high-end TE2 in this one with upside for more.
Matchups We Hate:
Demaryius Thomas (WR, DEN) / Emmanuel Sanders (WR, DEN)
Thomas has eight or more targets in six straight, while Sanders only has eight or more in three of the last six. Sanders is also dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable to play. Regardless, this is a tough spot as the Redskins have allowed just seven touchdowns and 1.49 PPR points per target to outside receivers. Having Osweiler under center doesn't add to their value either. Thomas can't be considered more than a low-end WR2 while Sanders is more of a flex start.
Samaje Perine (RB, WAS)
Perine left Thursday's practice with a groin injury, so there is a chance he won't suit up. If he doesn't, it's likely Kapri Bibbs (RB, WAS) will get the start. Regardless of who starts, this is a tough spot as the Broncos rank third in adjusted line yards and yards per attempt. If Perine plays he can be considered a fringe RB2, otherwise Bibbs is a flex start.
Other Matchups:
Brock Osweiler (QB, DEN) took over for Trevor Siemian on the team's second drive, and threw for 194 yards and two touchdown while adding an 18 yard touchdown run. It was his first game with more than 15 fantasy points, and he gets a good matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 16th in yards per game and 20th in touchdown percentage, and has given up nine top-17 scoring weeks. Still, Osweiler comes with a ton of risk and is barely on the QB2 radar.
C.J. Anderson (RB, DEN) has 55 carries over the last two games and gets a good matchup against a Redskins defense that ranks dead last in adjusted line yards and 21st in yards per attempt. They've only allowed five top-12 scoring weeks, but have only held two units outside the top-24. Anderson should be a low-end RB2 in this one.
Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS) hasn't scored more than 17 points in three straight, and may struggle to do so once again facing a Broncos defense that ranks second in yards per game. They do rank dead last in touchdown percentage, so he may find the end zone, but missing his stud left tackle doesn't help against the 11th ranked team in sack rate. Cousins can't be considered more than a high-end QB2 at this point.
Jamison Crowder (WR, WAS) has seven or more targets in five of the last six, but will draws just an OK matchup against the Broncos slot corners who have allowed just two touchdowns and 1.56 PPR points per target. Crowder continues to be Cousins' top target, but is a high-end WR3 in this matchup.
Rams at Titans
Matchups We Love:
Jared Goff (QB, LAR)
Despite his team scoring 40 points, Goff had a disappointing fantasy day throwing for just 120 yards and two touchdowns. He has now scored 14 or less in three straight, but has a great chance to rebound against a Titans defense that ranks 25th in yards per game and 16th in touchdown percentage. They've allowed eight top-15 scoring weeks and just gave up a QB10 finish to Jimmy Garoppolo. Goff is a low-end QB1 start.
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
In his return from injury, Woods led the Rams with seven targets and should once again be Goff's favorite receiver against a Titans secondary that has given up 12 touchdowns and 1.62 PPR points per target. Woods is a WR2 with upside in this one.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp only saw three targets with Woods back, but should be leaned on much more heavily as he faces the Titans slot corners who have allowed six touchdowns and 2.1 PPR points per target. Kupp is a WR3 that offers big time upside.
DeMarco Murray (RB, TEN)
For the first time in six games Murray saw more than 14 carries with 18, but was only targeted once. He gets a great matchup this week against a Rams defense that ranks 30th in yards per attempt and has given up six top-12 scoring weeks. Still, Murray carries plenty of risk and could be facing negative game script which keeps him nothing more than a flex play.
Matchups We Hate:
Todd Gurley (RB, LAR)
Gurley has been incredible regardless of opponent, and will have to continue that against a tough Titans defense that ranks second in yards per attempt. They have only allowed two top-12 scoring weeks all year and have held five units to finishes outside the top-24. Still, Gurley is a stud and is a must start, but owners should temper expectations.
Marcus Mariota (QB, TEN)
In the last five games, Mariota has 18 points in three, and nine or fewer in two. This could be another dud as he faces a Rams defense that ranks sixth in yards per game, 11th in touchdown percentage and second in sack rate. They've only allowed five top-16 finishes all year and only three top-12. Mariota can't be considered more than a low-end QB2 in this one.
Rishard Matthews (WR, TEN)
Matthews has only 13 targets since returning from injury, but did have eight on Sunday. He draws a tough matchup against the Rams who have allowed only two touchdowns and give up just 1.38 PPR points per target. Matthews can't be considered more than a low-end WR3 in a tough spot.
Delanie Walker (TE, TEN)
Walker has 19 targets over the last two games but gets a Rams defense that has only allowed three top-12 scoring weeks all year. You can't bench Walker but owners should temper expectations.
Chargers at Jets
Matchups We Love:
Philip Rivers (QB, LAC)
After posting five straight games with at least 16 fantasy points, and three with 18 or more, Rivers crushed his owners posting just 10 points against a weak Chiefs defense. He should rebound this week against a Jets defense that ranks 20th in yards per game and 27th in touchdown percentage, and has allowed eight top-13 scoring weeks. Despite his poor play in Week 15, Rivers is a solid QB1 start.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
After having double-digit targets in three straight games, Allen has eight in each of the last two. He will avoid the Morris Claiborne shadow as he plays about half his snaps from the slot, and gets a good matchup against a Jets secondary that has given up 13 touchdowns and 1.75 PPR points per target. Allen is a must start WR1.
Bilal Powell (RB, NYJ)
Powell out-carried Matt Forte (RB, NYJ) 13 to six, though Forte did have three targets to Powell's zero. The Chargers are a great matchup ranking 27th in adjusted line yards and 31st in yards per attempt. They do well against pass catching backs, however, ranking seventh in success rate and 10th in yards per attempt. Powell has the better matchup of the two, but can't be considered more than a low-end flex, while Forte should be left on benches.
Matchups We Hate:
Bryce Petty (QB, NYJ)
Making the start for injured Josh McCown, Petty had a predictably bad performance throwing for just 179 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Things likely won't get better against a Chargers defense that ranks fourth in yards per game, sixth in touchdown percentage and fifth in sack rate. Petty is unstartable in all formats.
Robby Anderson (WR, NYJ)
Even with Petty under center Anderson continues to be the team's number one target. Unfortunately this week he draws shadow coverage from Casey Hayward. On the year, Hayward has allowed only three touchdowns and 1.45 PPR points per target. Anderson already takes a hit with Petty, and in this matchup he can't be trusted as more than a flex start.
Jermaine Kearse (WR, NYJ)
Kearse had five targets with Petty but just three catches for 28 yards. Now he gets a tough matchup with the Chargers slot corners who have yet to allow a touchdown and give up just 1.32 PPR points per target. Kearse should be left on benches if possible and is little more than a desperation flex play.
Other Matchups:
Melvin Gordon (RB, LAC) now has 19 or more carries in five straight games, and had eight targets with Austin Ekeler knocked out of the game. Ekeler is expected to play but was seen wearing a huge cast on his left hand which makes his effectiveness seem less than ideal. Gordon should be in line for tons of work in this one, and while the Jets do rank seventh in yards per attempt, they have allowed six top-12 scoring weeks. There is no reason to think Gordon won't make it a seventh and he is an easy RB1 start.
Tyrell Williams (WR, LAC) has emerged as the Rivers' number two target, and may get a boost with Hunter Henry on IR. He's in a good spot against the Jets secondary that has allowed 13 touchdowns and 1.72 PPR points per target, but is still a risky flex play with inconsistent target share.
With Hunter Henry (TE, LAC) headed to IR, Antonio Gates (TE, LAC) will once again become the main pass catching back. The Jets are a good matchup for tight ends, having given up six top-12 scoring weeks. Still, Gates is on his last leg and can't be considered more than a TE2.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (TE, NYJ) only has seven targets over the last two games, but gets a Chargers defense that has allowed three straight top-12 scoring weeks and four straight top-13. Still, Petty and this Jets offense is killing his value and he is nothing more than a TE2 at this point.
Week 16 Sunday Matchups - 4:00 PM ET Games
Jaguars at 49ers
Matchups We Love:
Blake Bortles (QB, JAC)
Welcome to 2017, where Bortles has a legitimate chance to win your team a fantasy championship. Over the last four weeks Bortles has 23 or more points in three and 18 in the fourth. He gets another great matchup against a 49ers defense that ranks 19th in yards per game and 24th in touchdown percentage, and has given up eight top-12 scoring weeks and 11 top-15 weeks. Bortles is a low-end QB1 in this matchup.
Leonard Fournette (RB, JAC)
Fournette is set to return after missing one week with a thigh bruise. In his previous five starts, he had four with at least 17 carries and three with at least 20. In a game the Jaguars are favored to win he should see plenty of work. The 49ers have been better against the run of late but haven't exactly played some of the best run teams with matchups against the Seahawks, Bears, Texans and Titans. Prior to that stretch they had given up eight top-12 scoring weeks in 10 games. Fournette is a must start RB1.
Keelan Cole (WR, JAC)
With Marqise Lee leaving the game early with an ankle injury, Cole saw a season-high nine targets. Lee is out again so Cole could be Bortles number one target this week as well. He gets a great matchup against a 49ers defense that has given up 12 touchdowns and allows 1.81 PPR points per target. There is risk in starting Cole, but he can be viewed as a WR3 with upside.
Matchups We Hate:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Garoppolo has been very good since becoming the team's starter, and has 35 fantasy points over the last two games. Still, for as good as he has been he cannot be started against a Jaguars defense that ranks first in yards per game, fourth in touchdown percentage and first in sack rate. Only Russell Wilson has posted a better than QB14 day against this defense, and only four have done better than QB20. Garoppolo can't be considered more than a fringe QB2 in this one.
Marquise Goodwin (WR, SF)
In the three games Garoppolo has started, Goodwin has 33 targets. As much as he has helped owners get to this point, he may need to be benched against the Jaguars secondary that has allowed only three touchdowns (two against Russell Wilson) and 1.19 PPR points per target. Goodwin can't be considered anything more than a flex in a brutal matchup.
Other Matchups:
Allen Hurns (WR, JAC) looks set to return for the first time since Week 10, and gets a good matchup out of the slot against the 49ers slot corners who allow 1.63 PPR points per target. It's always risky starting someone coming back from injury, but Hurns looks like a solid flex in this one. Dede Westbrook (WR, JAC) saw only two targets despite Marqise Lee missing most of the game, and took a back seat to both Keelan Cole and Jaydon Mickens. The matchup is good for Westbrook, but it seems like Cole is the receiver to trust out of this group. Still, Westbrook should be a fine flex play in deeper formats in a plus matchup.
Carlos Hyde (RB, SF) has 16 or more carries in four of the last five, but only eight total targets in the three games since Garoppolo took over. The Jaguars are not the pushover run defense they were early in the year, but still aren't a must avoid either. The worry here is that the Jaguars build a lead and the 49ers are forced to throw the ball often. Despite all that, Hyde should still be a solid RB2 start.
Seahawks at Cowboys
Matchups We Love:
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
After posting at least 19 fantasy points in eight straight, and 20 or more in seven of them, Wilson crashed hard for his owners in Week 15 with just 11 points against a tough Rams defense. Things should be much easier as he faces a Dallas secondary that ranks 18th in yards per game and 25th in touchdown percentage. Wilson is a must start.
Paul Richardson (WR, SEA)
Richardson has seven targets in three of the last four, and gets a great matchup against a Cowboys secondary that has given up 16 touchdowns and allows 1.84 PPR points per target. Richardson makes for a solid flex play with big time upside in this one.
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott has had three straight solid weeks, and should get a boost with the return of Ezekiel Elliott from suspension. The Seahawks, once a tough matchup for passing games, have struggled of late without Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. Over the last three weeks they have allowed a QB13 finish to Carson Wentz, a QB11 finish to Blake Bortles and a QB24 finish to Jared Goff (mainly because the Rams leaned heavily on Todd Gurley). This is no longer a matchup to fear and Prescott is a low-end QB1.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Elliott is set to return after his six game suspension, and gets a great matchup against a banged-up Seahawks defense. Over the last two weeks they have allowed an RB11 finish to Leonard Fournette and a RB1 finish to Todd Gurley. Elliott should have no trouble in this one and if you were lucky enough to make the championship with him on your bench you have yourself a locked-in RB1.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
After seeing 31 carries over the previous two games, Mike Davis (RB, SEA) saw only six as the Seahawks were playing catchup against the Jaguars. He should see better game script this week, and gets a Dallas defense that ranks 26th in yards per attempt and have given up nine top-17 scoring weeks. There is plenty of risk in starting Davis, but he should offer solid flex value.
Doug Baldwin (WR, SEA) doesn't have more than seven targets in six straight games, and gets just an OK matchup against the Cowboys slot corners who allow 1.51 PPR points per target. Baldwin is tough to sit but can't be considered more than a WR2 in this matchup.
Jimmy Graham (TE, SEA) has gone ice cold at the worst time for his owners, and has only nine targets over the last three games. The Cowboys are just an OK matchup for tight ends having allowed only four top-12 scoring weeks. Graham still has to be considered a TE1 but owners should once again temper expectations.
Dez Bryant (WR, DAL) only has 21 targets over the last four games but gets a good matchup against a banged up Seahawk's secondary. This is still not an easy spot, however, as they have allowed just five touchdowns and 1.58 PPR points per target even without Richard Sherman. Bryant is barely on the WR2 radar at this point.
Jason Witten (TE, DAL) has five or more targets in four of the last six, but just three total in the other two. He may not be targeted much once again facing a Seahawks defense that has allowed only five top-12 scoring weeks all year. Witten can't be considered more than a TE2 start.
Giants at Cardinals
Matchups We Love:
Drew Stanton (QB, ARI)
The Cardinals will once again turn to Drew Stanton in Week 16 as head coach Bruce Arians has decided to bench Blaine Gabbert. Stanton had posted two straight 15 point games before Gabbert took over, and gets a great matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 31st in yards per game, touchdown percentage and sack rate. They've allowed nine top-12 scoring weeks and have only held two quarterbacks outside the top-17. Stanton has plenty of risk but should be a solid QB2 in this one.
Elijhaa Penny (RB, ARI)
With Kerwynn Williams (RB, ARI) having yet to practice, Penny looks to be set to get the bulk of the carries and goal line work against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in adjusted line yards and 25th in yards per attempt. They have allowed seven top-14 scoring weeks as well. Penny is a high-end flex with upside for more in this one.
Larry Fitzgerald (WR, ARI)
Fitzgerald has double-digit targets in four of the last six, and at least seven in each of those, and should take advantage of the weak Giants slot corners who give up 1.97 PPR points per target. Fitzgerald is a solid WR1 in a great matchup.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, ARI)
As the Cardinals only tight end, and in a great matchup, Seals-Jones completely flopped in Week 15. He did at least see six targets and now has five or six targets in four of the last five games. The Giants are one of the best tight end matchups as they have allowed 11 top-12 scoring weeks. Still, Seals-Jones carries plenty of risk and is a boom/bust TE2.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
After not having more than 11 points in three straight, Eli Manning (QB, NYG) posted a monster 434 yard, three touchdown day against the Eagles. The Cardinals are just an OK matchup, ranking 14th in yards per game and 19th in touchdown percentage, but have given up eight top-14 scoring weeks. Still, Manning can't be considered more than a risky, fringe QB2.
Orleans Darkwa (RB, NYG) and Wayne Gallman (RB, NYG) appear to be in a full-blown committe, as Darkwa had nine carries and three targets while Gallman had eight carries and seven targets. The Cardinals are a tough matchup for running backs regardless, and with the split in the backfield neither should be started if possible, though Gallman has some desperation value in PPR formats.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG) is coming off a career high 16 target game and will avoid the dreaded Patrick Peterson matchup as he plays primarily out of the slot. Still, the Cardinals are just an OK matchup for slot receivers having allowed only one touchdown and 1.54 PPR points per target. Still, Shepard is a low-end WR2 play and should get fed from Eli Manning once again.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG) has at least seven targets in five of the last six, and is coming off a monster 12 target game. The Cardinals do an OK job against tight ends, having allowed only four top-12 scoring weeks all year. Still, Engram is one of the heaviest targeted tight ends in the league and is a solid TE1 start.
