The fantasy trade market is always a fun one to evaluate. Articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" pieces but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to trade for those that are cold and trade away those hot.
Now, six weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming and others over-performing. The trade market has the most leverage possible early on in the year when owners are 0-6 or 1-5 with injuries flooding them (especially this year). The time to buy/sell is now and I am here to help.
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Players To Trade For
J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
With Mark Ingram presumably out or limited for the next few weeks due to an ankle sprain, J.K. Dobbins has an opportunity to seize a larger workload in the Ravens backfield.
#Ravens Mark Ingram suffered a "mid to high ankle sprain" on Sunday, but this isn't considered severe. Inside Injuries has classified this as a grade 2 (moderate) sprain. 4 week Optimal Recovery Time.— Inside Injuries (@InsideInjuries) October 21, 2020
The Ravens' backfield as a whole is a mess for fantasy. Dobbins has been on the field plenty since Week 1 but is only averaging six touches per game. Gus Edwards is rumored to see an increase in touches as well but his role seems fairly established as an early-down grinder, particularly, late in games to eat first-downs and maintain leads. Given that Edwards has just three targets this season and 12 total in his three year career, it's fair to assume that he will not see a significantly substantive change to his role. It is very likely that Justice Hill is activated if Ingram is out. Hill will probably take on two-minute drills and obvious passing situations like last season.
Edwards is a tell for defenses that the Ravens want to run. The hard part is of course stopping their potent ground game thanks to super-human athlete Lamar Jackson at the helm. Nevertheless, even the Ravens have to keep defenses honest and have versatile options on offense. Dobbins spaces the field much more than Edwards and can even move out-wide to play some receiver. His snap-share probably does not exceed 50% sans Ingram but his touches could consistently hit low double-digits, which is all he needs in this offense to become a fantasy-viable starter.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Adams is obviously not some diamond-in-the-rough but there is a window to buy at partially discounted value. After missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury and now being five weeks removed from an extraterrestrial-like Week 1 performance, Adams can possibly be traded for with a WR like DK Metcalf who has not missed all season or Ronald Jones, a RB coming off of three straight 100-yard performances. There are plenty of avenues to get creative here but the main goal is to acquire Adams who could end the season as the WR1 in PPG scoring.
There is virtually no competition for targets in GB and even when hounded by secondaries, Adams is bound to win, especially in the end-zone where he has been a favorite target of Rodgers' throughout his career. The Packers' offense is not devoid of talent but even after missing two games, Adams still leads the team in targets (tied with Marquez Valdes-Scantling). Adams saw 10 targets in his first game back from injury and is underperforming his expected yards-after-catch per reception at the sixth-highest rate in the league. He is as dominant a WR as there is in the league and is in his prime of primes at age 27. The Packers' defense is horrendous (30th in DVOA) which will keep the offense moving through the air despite Coach LaFleur's desire to run.
It is not out of the question for Adams to hit a pro-rated end-of-year target total of 200, this type of player is worth buying even at full-cost.
Players To Trade Away
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
Although this sell is a little too obvious, it must be done. Drake's rushing line at half-time this past Monday night was 7 rushes, 20 yards, and one TD. The Cowboys' gave up in the second half, it was evident from DeAndre Hopkins' 60-yard catch and Drake's 69-yard TD run. There was no fight left in that defense after witnessing the demise of their offense thanks to Andy Dalton and their shoddy offensive line. The play-calling was horrendous, specifically, the 58-yard field goal call when down 25 points in the first-half.
Drake has been a black hole all season and is hardly used in the passing attack. His value in the past was driven by his usage as a receiver but now, in passing-downs, Chase Edmonds gets the call. Drake has totaled just eight (8!!) targets through six games which puts him on pace for the second-lowest total of his career (first being his low-usage rookie season). While Drake's snap-share has remained steady all season, Edmonds had been incrementally rising up until this past week where his services as a receiver were unnecessary. This backfield is not one that will be ran away with anytime soon but if Drake hits another skid, Edmonds will be right on his tail to pick up the slack. Take the value regained from this past game versus Dallas and try to move Drake. It will be hard due to the timing but there's no harm in trying.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
*DISCLAIMER: Do not trade McLaurin until AFTER this weekend's matchup versus the Cowboys*
Scary Terry is a fantastic receiver on pace to have a great season, unfortunately, that pace is now derailed thanks to the decision to bench Dwayne Haskins and role out a QB duo of Kyle Allen and Alex Smith. While Allen is the starter for now, it is very possible that Smith takes over full-time if struggles continue. The splits here, although within a small sample, speak for themselves
Terry McLaurin’s splits with and without Dwayne Haskins have been...not great— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) October 20, 2020
Obviously, losing Kyle Allen in week 5 and having Alex Smith forced in hurt the entire offense but yeah, this is worrisome pic.twitter.com/xUtlehKooA
McLaurin is faced with the gargantuan task of carrying the receiving load for a mediocre football team in complete flux, aiming at their future this season rather than the season itself. If he were to suffer a minor-ish injury, the team would probably shut him down as to not further the damage on their start wide-out. The risk with McLaurin outweighs the reward and luckily, he is coming off of a good enough game (12 targets, 7 receptions, and 74 yards) to sell with some semblance of value.
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