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The fantasy trade market is always a fun one to evaluate. Articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" pieces but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to trade for those that are cold and trade away those hot.
We are officially halfway through the season and with teams nearly out of contention, it is the ripest time to pick away under-performing players and trade away over-performers that appear to continue their tears. These are the players in your leagues that should be either traded away or for.
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Players To Trade For
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews is a MASSIVE buy-low right now with multiple dud performances on his resume. Now, while that may sound bad, think of it more as a window-of-opportunity to acquire one of the most talented receiving TEs in the league who can be flexed along with another TE if need be. Andrews is essentially just a big receiver who is targeted heavily in the end-zone. He is coming off as a boom-or-bust option right now with back-to-back bust outings, however he has seen 10 total targets through those games which is right around his 5.6 targets per game this year (one target per-game lower than his 6.5 in 2019).
Lamar Jackson's intended air yards per-throw sits at third in the NFL (9.2) and Andrews' aDOT is right around his career average through his first-two seasons. There was one game earlier in the season vs Kansas City where Andrews dropped several catchable targets and really skewed what should have been a fantastic stat-line. Andrews ended the game with just 5.2 PPR points on 8 targets. Unfortunate, but it creates more of a negative perception for owners, especially those that don't watch every game.
Andrews' biggest issue this year has been his catch rate as it has dipped below 60% for the first time in his three-year career. Both his catch rate and yards-per-target have seen a dip in each season but he is still getting separation and is not triple-covered across the field. The first-half dip can be considered more of a blip than anything given that his drop rate is not that far off his career average. Andrews is currently TE5 on the season but with Kittle's injury and how ineffective the position has been on a whole, it's very possible he jumps to his rightful spot at TE2 behind just Travis Kelce by year's end.
Trade for Mark Andrews to win your playoffs given that the Ravens face Cleveland, Jacksonville and the Giants, the 21st, 32nd and 28th ranked defenses versus the pass according to DVOA from weeks 14-to-16.
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Jerry Jeudy has been ~fine~ throughout the first-half of the NFL season but has not really had a breakout game fantasy-wise that justified him as a legitimate first-round talent. We've all seen his college highlights with breakaway plays galore but he has been relatively quiet in the league and is still playing a sort of second-fiddle even with established Broncos' WR1, Courtland Sutton, out of commission. Jeudy was essentially usurped by Tim Patrick on the de facto depth chart and did not see double-digit targets until this past week versus the Chargers with Patrick hurt.
To be fair, the Broncos were without starting QB Drew Lock essentially for three weeks and he finally looked healthy in W8 after a rough first-two games back from a shoulder injury. Over the next two weeks, the Broncos face the Falcons and Raiders, two bottom-six defenses versus the pass. Both games should have high implied totals due to the proficiency of their offenses and require plenty of fireworks through the air. Jeudy's explosiveness will be required for the Broncos to win and even if Patrick returns, we know hamstring injuries can linger. Nevertheless, the offset in target volume will occur with the easing of coverage so Jeudy is a hot start regardless.
Trade for Jeudy now while he is extremely cheap and a potential drop for his current managers.
Players To Trade Away
Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Darren Waller is the Raiders' WR1 to a degree given that he leads the team in targets and has done so since 2019. However, his performance this season has been MUCH less efficient than last given that defenses are shading towards him more, forcing the Raiders to utilize him closer to the line-of-scrimmage for him to have a chance at the ball.
Waller's aDOT this year is 5.2 whereas it was 7.2 in 2019. His yards-after-contact per reception is also nearly 2 yards lower as it has dropped from 6.3 to 4.7. Waller was less of a "known" commodity last year and likely will remain heavily shaded even with the improving health of the Raiders' wide receiver corps and emergence of Nelson Agholor.
Fortunately, for managers, Waller has performed well through the first-half of 2020 with enough production to land him at TE3 on the year and even coming off of a "down" game in a windy outing vs Cleveland, he is "consistent" enough with five double-digit PPR performances in seven games. He has become much more of a high-floor play than anything and even with his explosive capabilities, it's hard to envision too many monster games going forward, especially with a brutal W14-16 schedule of the 3rd, 4th, and 12th best pass-defenses in the Dolphins, Colts, and Chargers.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
For the sake of brevity I could just say "Jake Luton" and be done with this but due to how valuable Robinson's been throughout the first-half of the season, it would suck to just leave it that short.
Luton, despite putting up some solid numbers in his final year at Oregon State, is bad. He is capable of moving around the pocket and escaping but is far from "mobile". He does not possess much arm strength and more often than not under-throws on "deep" shots. He has a hard time making throws that can be deemed "good" when the pocket is anything other than pristine and relies on herculean efforts from his receivers to complete any sort of difficult shot. While he is capable of dumping off and making short-area throws that won't cut it in terms of making defenses respect him.
The Jaguars offensive line is dead-last in adjusted sack rate according to FootballOutsiders, making it difficult for a QB like Luton to operate. What will likely occur during his stint as starter is defenses stacking the box to create as much pressure as possible while also preparing to stop the run. James Robinson has established himself as a formidable foe out of the backfield and will garner a slight bit of attention as one of the Jaguars' weapons.
In short, the Jaguars are tanking and they will do their best early on to not show their hand completely. Luton MIGHT surprise against the Texans poor defense this weekend but that would likely be due to the lack of NFL tape on him and a rookie starter's meticulously scripted game-plan.
Robinson will continue to see a the volume of a work-horse running back with targets sprinkled in but his ceiling is significantly lowered with Gardner Minshew who is at least not a terrible NFL quarterback. Minshew's mobility and accuracy at least forces defenses to respect him a bit, allowing for a RB next to him to operate. It is very likely that the Jaguars face massive deficits late in games moving forward, forcing them to utilize scat-back Chris Thompson more or even just bench Robinson to save him for next year.
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