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On December 7, the Nationals acquired Adam Eaton for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. Opinions of the trade differed based on projections of Giolito (who some remember as the game’s former top pitching prospect, and others think has lost a lot of his prospect shine) and Eaton’s center field defense (which metrics do not like nearly as much as his right field defense). This piece will discuss Eaton’s 2017 with the Nationals, as well as how the trade may impact Giolito and Lopez.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
2017 Fantasy Baseball Outlooks
Switching Leagues: While the intuitive response may be that (1) leaving the AL for the NL would negatively affect a hitter, or that (2) hitters may struggle to adjust when switching leagues (as hitters fare better against a pitcher the more times they face him), studies have shown that hitters generally receive a slight boost switching from the AL to NL. The boost, however, is small. It won’t affect the projections much.
The Lineup: Washington scored 75 more runs than the White Sox last year. The Nationals lose Wilson Ramos (who had an enormous year) and Danny Espinosa. They also had a career year from Daniel Murphy. But, on the plus side, they will get a full year of Trea Turner, have Adam Eaton and Derek Norris, and potentially receive a bounceback year from Bryce Harper. Even though it is impossible to project with precision how an offense will do each year, I fail to see how the 2017 Washington offense will not outperform the 2016 White Sox offense. Thus, I would expect more runs, and even though the Nationals have a pitcher at the bottom of the order, I do not expect much of an RBI effect.
The Ballparks: According to baseballmonster.com, Chicago’s “Guaranteed Rate Field” is +23% for lefty homeruns and -1% for batting average, while Nationals Park is -7% for lefty homeruns and +2% for average. As a whole, the parks in the rest of the division favor Eaton for homeruns, but based on this information alone, we would expect a dropoff in homers. However, overlaying Eaton’s 2016 spray chart onto Nationals Park shows that he would have hit either the same number of homers or one more had all his games been in Nationals Park. Even though he obviously only plays half his games there, the park may not affect his batted ball profile as much as the more general park factors suggest.
The Track Record and Projection: Eaton took 2015 and made a near carbon copy for 2016. In fact, the track record was very similar to 2014 except for the added home runs. Here are his numbers for 2014-2016 with a projection:
| G | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | R | RBI | SB | |
| 2014 | 123 | .300 | .362 | .401 | 1 | 76 | 35 | 15 |
| 2015 | 153 | .287 | .361 | .431 | 14 | 98 | 56 | 18 |
| 2016 | 157 | .284 | .362 | .428 | 14 | 91 | 59 | 14 |
| Projection | 158 | .288 | .366 | .432 | 14 | 108 | 55 | 18 |
Based on the above, I gave Eaton a slight average boost for the switch to the NL and a higher scoring offense, leaving most of the other stats the same. In sum, I expect a slight boost to his value from the trade, but Eaton has been one of the steadier players, so projecting something different would be unwise. It is also worth noting that Eaton will have even more value in leagues that value OBP.
Implications for Giolito and Lopez
Re-Draft Leagues: It probably does not come as news to you that the White Sox are rebuilding. Thus, they may be less aggressive with their prospects’ service time early. With a rotation that includes Quintana (for now), Shields, Gonzalez, Rodon and Holland, they can keep Giolito and Lopez down to start the season. So, the trade does not create instant opportunity, although there was no instant opportunity in Washington either. Because pitching for a rebuilding White Sox team is worse than pitching for a contending Nationals’ team, this trade hurts their re-draft values. Unless you have extremely deep benches or multiple minors’ slots, they should merely be on your watch list unless they win a rotation spot.
Dynasty/Keeper Leagues: Giolito was rated anywhere from third to seventh in the prospect rankings pre-2015 and pre-2016 by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com. By the end of 2016, however, he went from a nearly universally-loved future ace to a prospect who scouts were mixed on, with some thinking his fastball may be too flat and the changeup may not be what was thought.
Those scouting reports coincided with a disappointing performance last year: in AA, he had a 3.30 FIP to go with 4.31BB/9 and 9.13K/9. In his brief time in the majors, he was shelled: 8.21 FIP, 5.06BB/9, and 4.64K/9. He did perform well in limited AAA innings. Nevertheless, the scouting reports and performance changed his status from a seemingly untouchable prospect to the Nationals’ preferred trade chip over Victor Robles. A change of scenery with some new eyes and voices who view him more highly may get the 22 year-old back on track. After all, the White Sox did pretty well with Sale and Quintana. I’m taking the contrarian view that this trade helps his dynasty/keeper value. I value him as a higher-ceiling asset than Lopez. (An in-depth analysis of these pitchers is beyond the scope of this piece).
Lopez, on the other hand, appeared to be developing nicely last year in Washington. He brought the heat, with the fifth fastest average fastball (behind Noah Syndergaard, Nate Eovaldi, James Paxton, and Yordano Ventura according to Fangraphs). He was not a fantasy asset last year, but showed potential, with a 9.5 k/9 in his six starts to go with a 3.79 FIP. However, those were accompanied by 4.3BB/9 and a 5.52 ERA, and less than five innings per start. People who throw as hard as Lopez often face injuries, and there are long lists of flamethrowers who have both succeeded and failed. The fastball makes Lopez a dynasty asset despite the trade, but the fastball is not a guarantee of future success.
