RADIO
A lot has happened during the first four weeks of the season. We saw some players exceed expectations while others busted on our fantasy teams. Still, it’s only a small chunk of the season and there’s plenty of time for some of these players to rebound back into functional fantasy assets.
The NFL season can become overwhelming with player news. Sometimes focusing on the warning signals by some of the top fantasy players can be hard to see. After all, it’s a game of small samples that moves quickly and before you know it, the season is almost over. Players tend to exhibit warning signals before their fantasy value drops off the table. Pinpointing the players’ issues and knowing how to act on them could become pivotal for your fantasy team. One wrong move could be the reason why you are on the outside looking in when it comes time for the playoffs.
With all that being said, let’s take a look at some key warning signals before we get ready to set our lineups for Week 5
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Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
A lot is going on in Chicago. After Fields led the team to a 24-14 victory over the Detroit Lions, it appears the team may still choose to roll with Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback whenever he is back to full health. This is very discouraging for Fields’ fantasy managers who were banking on his upside to start the season.
Although he didn’t blow up the box score on Sunday he did improve from his Week 3 performance, and Fields’ rushing ability makes him an upside play in fantasy especially over the likes of Dalton. We really need him to be under center getting valuable experience so we can capitalize on his fantasy production as the season progresses.
Thus far, Fields has provided just 11.18 fantasy points in his first two starts so there is still a lot of room to grow and improve. The game script last week didn’t call for him to air it out and allowed the team to be conservative, limiting his upside and fantasy production. But the fact that we saw improvement in his play is a good sign that Fields might be able to ramp it up... if given the opportunity.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Kamara was easily a top-five pick in drafts this off-season -- he is currently the RB15 on the season. Only 11.10 fantasy points separate him from Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell, who currently sits as the RB25.
His usage in the passing game is the key driver of his fantasy production, and unfortunately he has only caught 10 passes this season. In Week 4, in a losing effort against the New York Giants, he was an afterthought as he went the whole game without getting targeted. This was the first game in his career where he didn’t receive a passing target.
The fact that we are seeing a major decrease in his usage in the passing game is very discouraging. Even with him rushing for 120 yards on Sunday, he only provided 12 fantasy points, making him the RB25 for Week 4. He is averaging 3.5 targets per game, which isn't enough to provide the fantasy production that we are used to getting from Kamara.
The season hasn’t been a total blunder -- he has hit RB1 status in both Week 1 and Week 3, and he ranks sixth among all running backs with 297 rushing yards. It’s quite evident that his skill set hasn’t diminished. This is more of a usage issue that is preventing him from hitting his upside in fantasy.
Fantasy gamers should remain patient with Kamara. The team might realize they have to utilize him more in the passing game somewhere down the line. Even with the reduced workload, he’s still providing some fantasy production. As long as he’s on the field, he has a chance to produce a blowup game.
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold playing quarterback for the Panthers is supposed to be a good thing for Anderson. He’s currently the WR69 on the season with 10 passes caught for 149 yards and one touchdown. In 2020, we saw him own a 27 percent share of the passing targets. As of right now, his target share in the passing game has decreased to just 17 percent.
One of the reasons why we are seeing this decline is that Darnold has built a rapport with DJ Moore who is commanding an incredible 35 percent share of the passing targets. Also, rookie Terrace Marshall Jr. has been siphoning some of the work, seeing 17 percent of the team’s passing targets.
Anderson saw 11 targets in Week 4 against the Dallas Cowboys. The game script fueled his workload, considering the Panthers were trailing by multiple scores in this game and they needed to rely on the pass to try to close the gap on Dallas’ 22-point lead in the fourth quarter.
The sample size is still too small to panic over Anderson. The Carolina Panthers rank 17th in the league with an average of 29.8 seconds between snaps while playing in a neutral game script. They are also operating with a 58 percent pass rate. This suggests there will be plenty of opportunities for Anderson to turn things around.
Tight End
Evan Engram, New York Giants
With Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton out of the lineup, it looked like Engram was finally going to see enough volume in the passing game to make something happen. Instead, Giants quarterback Daniel Jones started leaning more on Kadarius Toney by targeting the rookie nine times in Week 4. Kenny Golladay also saw eight targets in this game. The two wide receivers combined for a 51 percent target share, making it hard for anyone else to receive enough volume in the passing game to become a fantasy-relevant asset.
On top of that, Engram has looked much slower coming off of his calf injury which seems to have an influence on his workload. His 4.8 average depth of target is a good indicator that they want to keep him close to the line of scrimmage. It’s going to be hard for him to rack up yards after the catch if he can’t run at full speed, so fantasy managers are going to need him to fall into the end zone for him to be useful in fantasy.
We can label Engram as a streamer at this point, and I would only be interested in starting him if he had a favorable matchup. Any other time, he’s best left on your bench or even the waiver wire.
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