A pair of 39 year old relievers journey to new destinations as Fernando Rodney and Joaquin Benoit were both signed this offseason, to their eighth and seventh career teams, respectively. Both veterans were signed to one year deals, and both to teams who desperately need experience in the late innings. Rodney agreed to a $2.5 million contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks (average bullpen age: 26), and Benoit a $7.5 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies (average bullpen age: 27). Arizona owned the 27th worst bullpen ERA in the league last season, 4.94, with Philadelphia trailing right behind with the 28th worst at 5.05.
Rodney bounced back nicely from a terrible 2015 campaign, and earned 25 Saves between San Diego and Miami. He finished 2016 with a 3.44 ERA, and an impressive 10.19 K/9. Benoit was fantastic in his usual set-up role, also amongst two teams (Toronto and Seattle), earning 18 Holds to go along with a 2.81 ERA.
Obviously both of these acquisitions make sense, but what do these moves mean in terms of fantasy baseball? Everytime a move is made involving relievers, fantasy owners search frantically for the new guy getting saves. People LOVE saves. Unfortunately, with Jeanmar Gomez and stud Hector Neris returning for the Phils, it seems unlikely Benoit will be pitching in the ninth inning this season. GM Matt Klentak has spoken of a spring closer battle, but with Benoit coming off of a torn calf muscle at the age of 39, it doesn't feel like a winnable battle. Shuffles happen all the time in the land of closers, but Benoit should only be on your watch list to begin the 2017 season. For these reasons we will focus on the other old-new guy, who has a chance at immediate save opportunities, as scary as that might be.
2017 Fantasy Outlook
Fernando Rodney has an interesting case heading into the 2017 season, as the Diamondbacks have nothing concrete in their bullpen. Take a look at the projected bullpen along with their 2016 stats: (Rotochamp.com)
As you can see, 25 year old Jake Barrett is quite possibly the only legitimate threat standing in the way of Rodney being a full time closer for an MLB team for yet another year. Baseball is crazy. But despite the staggering ups and downs we have seen in Rodneys career, he did look very good in the NL West as a Padre for the first half of last season. In 28.2 IP in San Diego, he recorded 17 games with an absurd 0.31 ERA. Over the second half of the season however with the Marlins, he owned a 6.16 ERA and allowed a .298/.422/.446 slash. I can't make this stuff up.
The main issue with the second half collapse for Rodney was the command of his fastball. He went from allowing 3.89 BB/9 in the first three months all the way up to a dangerous 6.46 after his trade to Miami. This also translated into giving up much harder contact, to the tune of a 12% increase in line drives allowed, a six point increase in Hard%, and a TWENTY point increase in his HR/FB%. Twenty!
At this point in his career, Rodney is a two pitch reliever. He has his two seamer and a great changeup (6.6 wCH ranked seventh among relievers in 2016). He relies heavily on the two seam to induce groundouts (over 50 GB% in half of his seasons), and his changeup as his strikeout pitch (21.6 SwStr%). Before the All-Star break, this pitch duo was working to perfection. But as the season wore on, the fastball lost its effectiveness.
When your "command" pitch is getting shwacked around like that, you tend to be less prone to throwing it for strikes. This of course will lead to an increase in walks and a decrease in pitcher friendly counts in which you are able to throw your offspeed swing and miss pitch.
So heading into 2017, Rodney is back in the NL West where he enjoyed his first half success last season, with a great chance at securing the closing gig for the Dbacks to begin the year. The best thing about veterans like Rodney is their ability to make adjustments during the offseason. I am confident he will fix the fastball issues and be roster-worthy in standard leagues. They say to not pay for saves, and this is an example of why. You can snag Rodney in the latest of rounds and expect over 20 shaky saves in 2017. The ERA shouldn't kill your stats, but for heaven's sake, please handcuff the man!