RADIO
Veteran best-ball drafters look forward to this time each year because the NFL Draft creates an opportunity to take advantage of overreactions. Rookie ADPs inflate quicker than a helium balloon but those bubbles may bust just as easily when they don't pan out. Experienced FFPC players know how to account for shifting ADP by finding value where it lies.
As Michael Dubner of RotoViz explains, May is one of the best months to take part in best-ball drafts in order to take advantage of such ADP inequities. It also provides smart players, such as our RotoBaller readers, a chance to get an edge on the competition.
Below, I'll list some of the top running back risers and fallers in average draft position since the NFL Draft wrapped up. You can always reference our updated FFPC ADP page any time for the latest information.
Running Back ADP Risers for Fantasy Football
Every Rookie RB
I won't bother mentioning rookies here because almost every one of them saw their ADP climb significantly once they found a new home in the NFL. This is a good time to reiterate that the best window to draft rookies, especially at running back, is before the draft when uncertainty suppresses draft stock. From now until training camp wraps up, pretty much all of the rookie runners will be overvalued and should be selected judiciously.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
15.1 Pick Rise since May 1
According to RotoViz, CEH posted a win rate of 5% last season which is well below the average of 8.3%. There were 64 other running backs who ranked higher, including guys who didn't take a snap last year like Todd Gurley, Gus Edwards, and Xavier Jones. Obviously, that's a misleading stat because wasting a last-round pick isn't as costly as a third or fourth-rounder. Even when filtered solely for RBs taken in the top 100 picks, he's still near the bottom of the pile along with players who missed several games, if not all of them, due to injury. Only Saquon Barkley can rightfully be put on the same level.
Edwards-Helaire has not paid off at any point for best-ball players, so it's jarring to see his draft stock start to climb again inexplicably. The Chiefs signed Ronald Jones and drafted Isaih Pacheco, so CEH will have competition on his hands on both early and third downs. Remember that Edwards-Helaire was supplanted in the playoffs by Jerick McKinnon and was outperformed during the regular season by Darrel Williams. People keep wanting to believe in him because of the great team context in Kansas City but the only way he should be on any draft list is if he fell beyond pick 90 where he previously was. That's not happening, as he is back up to 75. Some people will never learn.
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
14.3 Pick Rise since May 1
The Eagles weren't expected to add to their RB room in the draft and they didn't. Instead, they boosted their offense big-time by trading for A.J. Brown and selected an offensive lineman in round two. What they didn't do was add any backfield threats for Sanders to worry about.
He's never going to be a three-down back, as his effectiveness as a receiver is limited and his blocking leaves a lot to be desired. Sanders graded out at a 47.3 in pass blocking while teammate Kenneth Gainwell was eighth-best among RBs at a 75.8 rating. But Sanders is the perfect best-ball RB because when he hits a hole, he hits it big. Sanders didn't do it as often last year but he missed five games due to injury and didn't look quite himself when he was on the field. By late-season, the Eagles decided to establish the run, fed Sanders the ball, and good things happened as he averaged over 90 rushing yards per game between Weeks 11-16.
FEED MILES SANDERS ? pic.twitter.com/hajc18mvDv
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 15, 2021
He was a screaming value for a while, going outside the top 100 picks. It has crept up a bit but he is only RB31 currently, going after Cordarrelle Patterson and CEH. I would take Sanders over those two any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
Sony Michel, Miami Dolphins
36.7 Pick Rise since May 1
Michel wasn't directly impacted by the NFL Draft but he happened to sign on with Miami shortly after the draft and the fantasy community has responded in kind.
Michel disappointed in New England relative to his draft capital as a first-round pick but he did average 5.7 yards per carry in 2020 before heading to L.A. After a quiet start to 2021 backing up Darrell Henderson, he took over as the starter for the final six weeks when Henderson was injured and averaged 90 rushing yards per game, including a strong stretch during the fantasy playoffs. His experience, connection to Miami (he grew up there), and fit in the offense was ideal for the new coaching staff.
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel on Sony Michel addition: “You have the opportunity to add a player of his caliber, of his pedigree, a multiple Super Bowl winner, we jumped at the opportunity… Competition for the Miami Dolphins is only a good thing.”
— David Furones (@DavidFurones_) May 17, 2022
When one ADP rises, another must fall. It happens each time a team drafts or signs a running back to cut into touches of another. We might as well combine Raheem Mostert's falling draft stock with this. Michel has seen his ADP climb 37 spots over the past three weeks while Mostert has fallen by 33. It would seem that the addition of Michel indicates that Mostert wasn't meant to be the RB2 in Miami so much as a veteran presence and change-of-pace back.
This shouldn't be surprising; Mostert played all of four snaps last season after missing half of 2020. He's a 30-year-old, oft-injured, former undrafted free agent who was let go by his previous team. Mostert has little to no value in fantasy, even best-ball leagues as a flier. Michel has plenty of touchdown upside as the likely goal-line back for this team and between-the-tackles runner.
Running Back ADP Fallers for Fantasy Football
Michael Carter, New York Jets
41.7 Pick Fall since May 1
Could have seen this coming... As soon as Breece Hall became the first RB off the board and landed in Gotham, Carter went from a nice upside pick as a late RB2/early RB3 to a handcuff. Once taken in the top 90 overall, Carter keeps dropping like an anchor and is now being selected as the RB38 in FFPC.
This should serve as a lesson to those who expected him to potentially breakout this season in a featured role. It didn't happen in year one as he was stuck behind veterans like Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. Now we know there is a reason for that - the Jets don't view him as more than a pass-catching back. The hype has to be justified based on performance, not just opportunity.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
98.7 Pick Fall since May 1
Talk about a freefall. Carson's draft stock was torpedoed by the selection of Kenneth Walker, resulting in a drop of almost 100 spots.
It's not as if drafters had much faith in him to begin with, as he'd been getting selected after pick 200 anyway. Now, most drafts will end with Carson still available among the other undrafted and undesirable RBs.
The real story here isn't just the touches that Walker will command as the second runner picked in this draft class. It's the fact that it clearly signals Seattle either knows something we don't about Carson's health or is worried enough to make Carson's presence irrelevant to the offense. Either way, he has become a complete non-factor for fantasy.
J.D. McKissic, Washington Commanders
20.1 Pick Fall since May 1
This one is a bit curious. The Commanders did draft Brian Robinson Jr. in round three but surely not to supplant McKissic's role on third downs. The team pulled McKissic from out of the jaws of Buffalo in free agency because they value him as a pass-catcher and blocker. He posted the sixth-best receiving grade among running backs last season. Robinson did catch 35 balls for Alabama last year, showing he is a capable receiver. It's still hard to imagine that McKissic will simply sit on the bench while the rookie takes his responsibilities.
It was a down year for him because injuries got in the way but he still posted an above-average 10.2% final win rate that was 11th-best at RB. If his ADP keeps getting suppressed, he'll be more likely to take your best-ball team to the top.
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