RADIO
What's up RotoBallers. In this column, Jason and I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 106. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. We will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. We will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 93-44, Jason's Record: 75-62).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 106.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Experts Jason and Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Alex Oliveira vs Tim Means
Justin’s Pick
This is an interesting matchup. Tim Means nearly finished Charles Oliveira in their first fight before a controversial knee led to a no contest. Even though Means looked outstanding in that fight, Oliveira still has a path to victory. He will be looking to take this fight to the ground and look for a submission, while Means will want to keep this fight on the feet. Means showed the ability to keep the fight standing and the ability to get back up once he was taken down in their last fight. That will make the difference this weekend, as Means looked to add another knockout to his record.
Tim Means via TKO, 2nd Round
Jason’s Pick
Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means, despite his nickname, did not cheat in his first fight against Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira. He beat him. Even though he beat him once, it does not mean he will definitely win again this week in Brazil. Oliveira has a clear path to victory, as Justin mentioned, but Means handled the rejection of that path well in the first fight, and if he can keep this fight standing, Oliveira is going to struggle.
Tim Means via TKO, 2nd Round
Bethe Correia vs Marion Reneau
Justin’s Pick
This is a good matchup between two top-15 135 lbs. women. Bethe Correia throws at a high clip with good accuracy, which allows her to gain points on the judge’s scorecards. Marlon Reneau also throws at a high clip, but is much less accurate and much more powerful. Reneau could certainly land a big shot and win the fight, but it’s much more likely Correia fights smart on her way to another decision victory.
Bethe Correia via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
Marion “The Bellzean Bruiser” Reneau is definitely a little bit less accurate while standing, but do not underestimate her defense. Bethe “Pitbull” Correia will look to outpoint her, but Reneau is solid enough with her parry and blocks to keep that from happening. The big shots go over better with the judges, and those will come from Reneau. Both fighters have a chance to eek out a victory this week, but Reneau gets a slight edge.
Marion Reneau via Unanimous Decision
Jussier Formiga vs Ray Borg
Justin’s Pick
This is going to be a high-level grappling match between two of the best grapplers in the flyweight division. Both fighters have only lost to high-level competition, and they are both also coming off of an impressive win. It’s never easy to pick against Ray Borg, but Jussier Formiga is simply the better fighter. Formiga should win the grappling exchanges for three consecutive rounds this weekend.
Jussier Formiga via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
This will be a fantastic fight to watch between Jussier Formiga and Ray “The Tazmexican Devil” Borg. Borg is no joke. He just recently defeated Louis Smolka, but prior to that, he lost to Justin Scoggins. Formiga, on the other hand, recently beat Dustin Ortiz, but prior to that fight, he lost to Henry Cejudo. Surprisingly enough, in 2015, Formiga beat Wilson Reis, who will fight for the championship against DeMetrius Johnson in April. Anyway, Formiga is the better fighter, and he gets the edge.
Jussier Formiga via Unanimous Decision
Edson Barboza vs Beneil Dariush
Justin’s Pick
Beneil Dariush will likely look for a few takedowns in this fight, but Edson Barboza’s takedown defense is elite. That means this fight will likely stay standing for as long as it lasts. Dariush is no slouch on the feet, but he’ll likely have a difficult time closing the distance against Barboza’s kicks. If Barboza can keep this at kicking distance, he should be able to pick apart Dariush, while looking for a knockout.
Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision
Jason’s Pick
This is going to be a great fight. Edson “Junior” Barboza is an elite-level striker, and Beneil Dariush is no joke either. Barboza throws a ton of leg kicks, and Dariush will be looking to catch one of those, but those kicks are just too quick. This should be a high-output fight that stays standing. If that happens, Barboza will walk away victorious.
Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision
Mauricio Rua vs Gian Villante
Justin’s Pick
Mauricio Rua’s career is likely coming to an end soon, but he still has more than enough skill to stop Gian Villante. Villante is a fighter that tends to disappoint. Even in his win against Saparbek Safarov, Villante struggled quite a bit until Safarov injured his leg. Rua also has plenty of losses on his record, but his losses have come against elite competition. This step up in competition is going to be a bit too much for Villante, and Rua will pick up the win in front of his home crowd.
Mauricio Rua via TKO, 1st Round
Jason’s Pick
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua is at the end of his career. Gian Villante is not. Villante has better defense while standing, better defense against takedowns, and should be the quicker fighter. Rua is better in the offensive department, but as the saying goes, defense wins championships. Villante should be able to pick his shots well enough to confuse Rua and eventually find a big one. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Villante.
Gian Villante via TKO, 3rd Round
Vitor Belfort vs Kelvin Gastelum
Justin’s Pick
This fight could somewhat be seen as a “passing of the torch” fight. Vitor Belfort has lost three of his last four fights, while Kelvin Gastelum only has two losses in his career, which were both by split decision. Gastelum has looked outstanding in his last two fights, and he should continue to fare well in his new weight class, as he works his way towards a title fight.
Kelvin Gastelum via TKO, 4th Round
Jason’s Pick
Vitor Belfort is absolutely no joke in the octagon, but it is time for Kelvin Gastelum to finally show off how good he really is. He moved up a weight class and has never looked better. Gastelum is the better striker, so he will likely keep this fight standing. He also has great takedown defense, so Belfort will not be able to get it to the ground. Gastelum will walk away victorious.
Kelvin Gastelum via TKO, 2nd Round
