RADIO
What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for Fight Night 123. Our analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's Record: 173-86).
MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are our DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at Fight Night 123.
Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.
Albert Morales vs Benito Lopez
This main card is filled with close fights, starting with Morales and Lopez. Morales has been in the UFC since 2016, recording a 1-2-1 record, winning a split decision against an underwhelming opponent in Andre Soukhamthath. Lopez has not fought the same competition, but he has found more success. I expect Lopez to have the advantage on the feet, while Morales has the grappling advantage. With that being said, I don’t believe either advantage is by more than a slight margin. Both fighters have ways to finish this fight, but they also can go three rounds, as well. I feel Lopez has the potential to keep this fight standing, making him a slightly more appealing option.
Benito Lopez, TKO, 3rd Round
Eryk Anders vs Markus Perez
I could be slightly biased in this fight after seeing Anders fight live at UFC on Fox 25. He laid waste to a tough opponent in Rafael Natal, easily winning the fight in spectacular fashion. He is a fast, athletic, powerful fighter, who will continue to get better as he trains more. He was a former linebacker at Alabama, playing a key role in their National Championship team. Perez is a bit more of an unknown, but he looks to be a solid prospect. With that being said, I do not feel he is going to be able to matchup with Anders physically. Anders somewhat reminds me of Francis Ngannou at light heavyweight. Ngannou was a raw fighter with elite physical attributes, who is now the favorite to win the title in his next fight. I’m not saying Anders is in the same boat as Ngannou, but he is athletic enough to win this fight.
Eryk Anders, TKO, 2nd Round
Scott Holtzman vs Darrell Horcher
Neither of these two fighters are top prospects, but they are fairly evenly matched, making this a tough fight to judge. It will seemingly come down to whether or not Holtzman can get the takedown. If he can, he should be able to grind out a three round decision. If he cannot secure the takedown, Horcher has flashed the power to change this fight on the feet. With that being said, I feel Holtzman is the more active fighter and the easiest way to beat him is to take him down and record control time. I don’t necessarily think Horcher is going to be looking for a takedown in this fight, though. Holtzman should be able to throw enough volume on his feet to sway the judges, while also mixing in takedowns for top control.
Scott Holtzman via Unanimous Decision
Marlon Moraes vs Aljamain Sterling
Moraes is 1-1 in the UFC, winning and losing a split decision. Sterling has been fighting in the UFC for a significantly longer time, recording a 6-2 record, losing two split decisions. Both fighters possess tremendous striking defense. Moraes is the more hittable fighter of the duo, but he is also the better striker. He has struggled at times to defend the takedown, but fighters have trouble keeping him down. Sterling is one of the better wrestlers in this division, though. I was extremely impressive with Sterling in his last fight against Barao, and I feel his grappling could be the difference in this fight. The striking should be similar, while Sterling’s takedowns should be enough to win on the judge’s scorecards.
Aljamain Sterling via Unanimous Decision
Jason Knight vs Gabriel Benitez
It seems as if the UFC is giving Knight a fight to get back on track after losing to Ricardo Lamas. Knight will have a significant grappling advantage in this fight. I don’t believe Benitez’s striking advantage is big enough to change this fight before Knight can land a takedown. He should be able to control this fight for three rounds, while searching for a finish, which he is generally good at finding. There are a lot of close fights on this main card, but this is no one of them. Knight should be able to get back on track here.
Jason Knight, Sub, 2nd Round
Cub Swanson vs Brian Ortega
These are two of my favorite fighters to watch. Neither fighter gives up until after the fight is over, making all of their fights must see TV. Swanson has been in a few wars over the last two years, specifically with Artem Lobov and Doo Ho Choi. Ortega has also been in a few wars, finishing each of his last four fights. Ortega was arguably losing his last two fights before finding a knockout and submission in the third round. Quite frankly, Swanson will likely be winning rounds in this fight, but it only takes one mistakes for Ortega to capitalize. The big problem with Ortega for opponents is the fact that he wants to be taken down because his guard is so effective. That allows him to fight without any concerns of a takedown, making his strikes wild and somewhat out of control. I feel it will only be a matter of time before Ortega finds a finish, since he gets to work with five rounds for this weekend.
Brian Ortega, Sub, 4th Round
