RADIO
For those who have played in a dynasty league, the fundamental difference is that every player and every move needs to be viewed through a long-term lens, whereas in redraft we only care what the players will be doing for the current season. Sometimes this change in viewpoint doesn't change player value much, but sometimes it makes a huge difference.
Let's take a look at some players who should be long term dynasty studs but who won't live up to expectations this season. For argument's sake, all ADP references are from 12-team PPR leagues on Fantasy Football Calculator.
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Dynasty Studs Turned Redraft Duds
Tyler Lockett, (WR, SEA)
Lockett is being seen by many as a candidate to have a huge breakout this year. He's currently being drafted towards the beginning of round seven in redraft leagues and commonly ends up as a WR3/WR4. While the prevailing assumption will be that the Seahawks will open up the offense and throw with more frequency this season, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see Seattle go back to being one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, either.
The second-year receiver is extremely fast and does have loads of talent, but keep in mind how much Russell Wilson likes to spread the ball around on offense. As a result, Lockett shapes up as a better dynasty option where the 23-year-old speedster can continue to grow alongside Wilson. It wouldn't be a surprise if he's the team's number one receiver by 2017, but this season may be a little early.
DeVante Parker, (WR, MIA)
Parker posted exceptional stats over the last six games in the 2015 season. In that span, he caught 22 passes for 445 yards and three touchdowns. As a result of his big finish to the year, the hype on Parker got out of control for a while there in the offseason. The second-year wideout has missed most of camp with hamstring injuries to both legs, which has suppressed his ADP in redraft leagues as he's now coming off the board in the ninth round.
With Kenny Stills currently working ahead of Parker and Jarvis Landry still around to soak up most of the targets, it is getting to the point where it will be hard to trust Parker in the early going of the season. He most certainly hasn't endeared himself to new head coach Adam Gase and his staff by missing most of camp. Parker's dynasty outlook is much more favorable as he could become a high-end WR2 with time, especially if he can shake the injury bug that has plagued him since he was in college.
Kevin White, (WR, CHI)
White is in a similar spot as Parker, although at least we've seen Parker do something on an NFL field. White's entire rookie year was wiped out by a shin injury, effectively making this White's rookie season. While White is currently being drafted around the ninth round, it is becoming a stretch to expect him to put up great numbers in 2016.
He has looked raw in the preseason and the Bears could have one of the worst offenses in the league. From a dynasty perspective, White is a size/speed freak athlete who could be the Bears' de facto number one receiver in 2017 if Chicago doesn't bring back Alshon Jeffery. Knowing this alone makes him a strong asset in dynasty formats.
Derrick Henry, (RB, TEN)
Henry is widely regarded as the second-best rookie running back after Ezekiel Elliot, but he landed in a suboptimal spot to begin his career. While the rookie runner has certainly flashed his talent at times in the preseason, he will open the regular season in a timeshare with veteran DeMarco Murray. Murray is coming off a poor season with the Eagles, but he's expected to be the majority member of the Titans' timeshare in 2016.
Getting value out of Henry in redraft formats would require an injury to Murray or for Henry to straight up take the job from Murray. Both situations are hard to bank on having them play out as needed for the Henry owner. In dynasty leagues, Henry is one of the top young running back prospects and could have the backfield all to himself as early as 2017 if Murray is one-and-done in Tennessee, which wouldn't be a huge shock.
Tyler Eifert, (TE, CIN)
Eifert put together a huge 2015 season with 13 touchdowns, but his amazing season also led to him injuring his ankle in the Pro Bowl. He had surgery on the ankle in May and is not expected back until Week 4 at the earliest. While he is shaping up as a solid value in fantasy drafts, there's no guarantee he will be able to hit the ground running when he does return.
His conditioning could be an issue, as could the fact that his 2015 offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson, is now the head coach of the Cleveland Browns. Eifert should still be a red zone target, but it wouldn't be a surprise if he isn't as effective of a fantasy player this season. As a dynasty option, Eifert is still only 25 and is a top-four dynasty tight end no matter where you look. His owners will just have to hope he can shake the injury bug that has seemingly followed him every season.
