RADIO
Every year, there are players that are undervalued and those that are overvalued on draft day. By spending too much, or by using a high draft pick on a player that doesn't return big-time fantasy value on a consistent basis, we can put our teams in a difficult position on a week-to-week basis.
This column identifies a few of these players who may be too risky for the draft day cost. The below wide receivers are currently being overvalued based on their latest ADP numbers and cannot be justified at their current value.
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Will You Overpay For These Wide Receivers?
Dez Bryant, Cowboys
Current Yahoo! ADP: 13.8
Current ADP Among WR: 6
There is no denying that the Cowboys' Romo-less QB situation appears to be in better hands this year with impressive rookie Dak Prescott and yes, even Mark Sanchez. With that said, it is completely unfair to expect Bryant, coming off an injury-riddled 2015 campaign of his own, to put up top six receiver numbers. The Cowboys would be wise to rely on their fourth overall pick in the NFL Draft and heavy favorite for offensive rookie of the year Ezekiel Elliott to ease Prescott into the starting gig. Even if Romo can return after their Week 7 bye, expect Bryant to put up borderline WR1 numbers at best.
Alshon Jeffery, Bears
Current Yahoo! ADP: 22.7
Current ADP Among WR: 12
There is probably no other receiver that I have stayed away from more than Jeffery over the past two seasons. If you were an unfortunate owner of him last season, feel free to go on because you lived through his nightmarish 2015 season. You are most likely scarred from hitting the refresh button on his status right up to game time essentially every week. Jeffery is an undeniable talent and the best weapon in the Bears offensive attack by a wide margin. However, his now year-plus history of nagging soft tissue (ie. hamstring) problems is something owners may have to deal with again. Even if fully healthy, the Bears may struggle to put up points this season and do not have much to draw attention away from Jeffery. I would feel better about him as a true WR2 with upside instead of his current ADP that has him embedded in the top 15.
Demaryius Thomas, Broncos
Current Yahoo! ADP: 32.4
Current ADP Among WR: 17
Raise your hand if you knew who Trevor Siemian was three months ago. The 2015 seventh rounder from Northwestern “won” the Broncos starting quarterback job in camp after edging out the aforementioned Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch. Now he will be responsible for finding Thomas on the field. Thomas’ 2015 season saw a regression in receiving yards and touchdowns, and was viewed by many as a disappointment (by his standards). The root of the problem that plagued his season was poor quarterback play, leading to an overall inconsistency in Thomas’ week-to-week performance. With Siemian or Lynch at the helm, expect these same problems to continue into 2016, causing Thomas to finish outside of the top 20. At their current value, I would prefer teammate Emmanuel Sanders, whose current ADP among wide receivers is 33.
DeVante Parker, Dolphins
Current Yahoo! ADP: 90.5
Current ADP Among WR: 35
Parker ended last season showing a ton of promise, finishing his final three games with at least four receptions and 85 yards. This strong finish to the season and the hiring of new head coach Adam Gase caused the former first rounder to fly up draft boards this summer, as his current ADP of 35th WR off the board puts him right in the middle of the WR3 discussion. There are, however, some red flags in regards to Parker this season, which should scare those owners banking on him to contribute in their weekly lineups. Parker’s career has been beset by injuries to this point, undergoing foot surgery last June which caused him to miss valuable time as a rookie. Parker was also hobbled during the regular season, leading to several missed games. Parker went down with a hamstring injury only a few days into camp this summer, and has supposedly drawn the ire of Gase. Finally, Parker seems to have been passed over on the totem pole by Kenny Stills who lined up opposite Jarvis Landry ahead of Parker in two-receiver sets late in the preseason. Parker remains an intriguing prospect this season, but should be drafted more along the lines of a WR4 with upside, not someone to count on weekly.
Josh Gordon, Browns
Current Yahoo! ADP: 95.2
Current ADP Among WR: 37
There’s really not much analysis that needs to go into this: Four-game suspension. Robert Griffin III. Cleveland Browns. Last played in an NFL game in December 2014. Sorry, but that’s far too many things working against the enigmatic Gordon to be counted on as a weekly starter. Let others think they are catching lightning in a bottle with Gordon as you take a more proven commodity in a better situation.
