RADIO
Baseball is a funny game. Fantasy baseball is an even funnier game. Viewers and fantasy owners are always looking for the next phenom to hit the majors. Those same viewers and owners want to make sure they are the first to notice to get a head start on their friends and/or competition.
Sometimes this can cause owners to screw up their draft, especially in non-dynasty leagues. Drafting “the next big” rookie as opposed to a proven veteran can demolish a fantasy team. Today, we will go over five seemingly can’t "miss prospects" and explain why owners should lower their expectations for this fantasy baseball season.
Avoid These MLB Prospects in 2015
Eddie Butler – COL, SP
The Rockies top pitching prospect of the last couple years has earned himself a spot in the rotation to start the season. Despite being touted as a high-level MLB prospect, there are several red flags that are immediately raised when evaluating Butler.
Butler may have risen through the ranks faster than inflation, but it certainly does not appear it is because of performance. Over the last two seasons in the minors and a stint in the bigs, he has not been stretched over 149.2 IP in a given calendar year. Clearly Colorado wants him to be a starter than can go deep into the year, so it is only natural to wonder if and when fatigue will set in. As he advanced from through the ranks from High-A ball to Triple-A, it seemed as if Butler lost command of the strike zone. Three times he has completed stints in the minors where he has finished with at least an 11.1% BB rate. Yikes. When he is not walking batters he seems to be letting them get on base the old fashioned way. Last season alone he was hit harder as he was promoted. Batters posted a .125 AVG against him in High-A, .250 AVG in Double-A, and a whopping .348 AVG with a ridiculous .421 BABIP in Triple-A.
If you are still not swayed at this point to stay away from Butler then ponder this age-old riddle. Do you trust a rookie starting pitcher who will toss half his games at Coors Field?
Aaron Sanchez – TOR, SP
K rate and BB rate. That’s the name of the game. Make no mistake, Sanchez has the ability to unleash his inner 2009 Ricky Nolasco and mow opposing batters down. Unfortunately, he also has the ability to unleash his inner Ricky Vaughn and go Wild Thing. Between all levels of Rookie Ball and Triple-A during the years 2011 through 2014, he mimicked Butler and never finished with a BB rate lower than 11.1%.
Perhaps Sanchez’s best attribute is his ability to induce the ground ball on major league hitters. He was able to stymie opponents to the tune of a 65.9% GB rate in 33 IP for Toronto last season. Unfortunately, he also will be pitching half his games in Toronto where ground balls reach the outfield at a higher pace than the average ballpark. Perhaps that is nitpicking. More probable, it is another reason to stay away from Sanchez.
Yasmany Tomas – ARZ, 3B/OF
The best value Tomas brings to the table is the near across-the-board eligibility at multiple positions. There is something to be said for that type of value. Regrettably, Tomas is not poised to be the monster performer that some fantasy owners are prone to believe, and we are already seeing signs of that as yesterday he was demoted to Triple-A to start the season.
Tomas has certainly been productive for his age during his five years in the Cuban National Series. His .290/.345/.504 total slash line in that stint is quite impressive for any one let alone a 22-year-old. With that also came a 17.7% K rate. That is not necessarily unheard for a young talent, but it is also a cause for concern. Overall pitching in the CNS isn’t bad. In fact, it’s pretty comparable to Triple-A and big league talent. That being said Tomas will definitely not face worse pitching in 2015. As he adjusts to big league talent, that K rate will surely elevate. Best case scenario is that it remains the same. And if he has a 2015 campaign that mirrors his spring training, Tomas will certainly not be leading his owners to fantasy gold.
The young Cuban has all the tools to be a stud for the Diamondbacks for a long time. Just do not expect him to be in his prime for this season. There will be some growing pains along the way.
Maikel Franco – PHI, 3B
The Phillies made the decision to have Franco start his 2015 year in the minors, but most baseball experts would agree that he should get the call up this season as long as he is healthy. The only problem with that theory is that Cody Asche does not appear to want to give up his position at third. So that leaves the inevitable question of where will Franco play.
Reminiscent of a young Ryan Howard, Franco possesses power that could translate into multiple 30 HR seasons in Philadelphia. Fantasy owners should not include 2015 as one of those seasons. The young ‘un does not strike at an incredibly high rate, but he does not walk nearly enough for the amount of he does get fanned.
If and when Franco figures out how to use the entire field and not swing at nearly every pitch, then he will get called up to Philadelphia. He has figured the proverbial it out at every level in the minors so there is no reason to think he shouldn’t be called up. When he does, he will figure it out again. Just not in 2015.
Byron Buxton – MIN, OF
Clearly a top-two prospect over the last year, Buxton is someone fantasy owners should avoid for the calendar year 2015 simply because he will most likely not be called up to the Twins until September. But let’s say Minnesota gets decimated by injuries and Buxton does get the call up. It is still too soon for this young stud. He still strikes out at an absurdly high rate for a contact guy, and that is the number one cause of concern for fantasy owners and Twins management alike.
There is no denying this 21-year-old is an incredible talent. However unless you are in a dynasty league, it is best to look elsewhere for 2015.
