RADIO
"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me...you can't get fooled again." Unfortunately, the classic proverb from the eloquent President George W. Bush is not entirely accurate when it comes to fantasy football.
Every year, fantasy gamers are sucked in by rookie hype, and every year, many of them fail to live up to expectations. Frustrated gamers proclaim that they won't fall for it again! Inevitably, they always do. Kevin White. Laquon Treadwell. Dante Pettis. JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The list goes on and on of players that failed to impress as rookies that were irresponsibly given a second chance by fantasy managers.
Fantasy owners are surely going to fall for their failed 2020 rookies once again. I'm just here so I won't get fined for not at least warning you all in advance.
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Henry Ruggs III, Las Vegas Raiders
One of the most head-scratching decisions in the 2020 NFL Draft was the Raiders making Henry Ruggs the first wide receiver off the board. Unsurprisingly, the guy who was never better than the third-best wide receiver on his own college team that doesn't have a breakout age (because he never broke out) did a whole lot of nothing as a rookie.
Historically, rookie wide receivers need to reach 500 yards in order to go onto successful NFL careers. There will always be outliers, but generally, we'd like to see rookie wide receivers hit that threshold. Ruggs finished with 452 receiving yards in just 13 games. Given that he was hurt for a bit, I'm not willing to completely write him off. However, Ruggs remains a mediocre prospect that did not produce as a rookie despite a wide-open receiving corps.
The Raiders have an alpha pass catcher in Darren Waller, but not much behind him. The second most targeted pass-catching spot is up for grabs. I just have zero confidence it will be Ruggs. The Raiders added John Brown and Willie Snead in free agency and they're returning Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones. Fellow sophomore Bryan Edwards is actually not on this list despite disappointing as a rookie as well because I believe his odds of breaking out are significantly greater than Ruggs'. I won't go so far as to peg Edwards as a must draft, but he profiles as a WR1 that can win on the outside. I wouldn't be surprised if Ruggs had a low-volume efficient season, but the most likely outcome is he's good for a couple of splash plays and not much else.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams do some confusing things in the draft, particularly at the wide receiver position. Given that they had two locked-in starting receivers in Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp with a rock-solid WR3 in Josh Reynolds, their selection of Van Jefferson in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft was perplexing, to say the least.
Reynolds is gone this year, but not only did the Rams sign DeSean Jackson, but they also spent another second-round pick on a wide receiver, selecting the miniature Tutu Atwell. Jefferson didn't even come close to the 500 receiving yards threshold as a rookie and he played in all 16 games. Jefferson managed just 220 yards on 19 receptions. In 2020, Jefferson was the WR4 on the Rams. In 2021, he's likely the WR5. Jefferson's career is over before it even began.
K.J. Hamler, Denver Broncos
You're starting to see a theme here, I presume. K.J. Hamler actually had a couple of moments as a rookie when he was being added to fantasy squads. He posted back-to-back 10 target games in the middle of the season and it looked like he was about to take over the WR2 role opposite Jerry Jeudy. That just never held and Hamler largely faded away before splashing in Week 14 with a two-touchdown game on two receptions.
Hamler recorded just 381 yards while being outplayed by Tim Patrick. With Jeudy set to improve after an uneven rookie campaign and Courtland Sutton returning from his ACL tear, Hamler is the clear WR4 on a team that also features a super-athletic tight end in Noah Fant. Even with a quarterback upgrade from Drew Lock to the vastly more talented Teddy Bridgewater, there just isn't enough to go around for Hamler.
Denzel Mims, New York Jets
In previous articles, I've discussed Denzel Mims as a great late-round flier. As the summer wears on, we gain more information, though. It appears as if Mims is quickly falling out of favor with the Jets. Mims was drafted by a previous regime, which means the current regime has no allegiance to him. He's been running with the second team in OTAs, which is never a good sign, even this early.
The Jets signed Corey Davis and Keelan Cole, brought back Jamison Crowder, and drafted Elijah Moore in the second round. It's not outside of the realm of possibilities that Mims opens the season as the WR5. Mims did manage 357 receiving yards as a rookie in just nine games, so I'm not ruling out a sophomore leap; I'm just nowhere near as bullish on him as I was a couple of months ago.
Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens
Every year, we learn new things. When it comes to scouting college prospects, I learned why I never should've been on Devin Duvernay last season. It's just exceedingly rare for a four-year college player that breaks out as a senior to actually succeed at the NFL level. Brandon Aiyuk is looking to buck that trend, but he had an unconventional path to the pros going through JUCO. Duvernay played in all 16 games, catching just 20 balls for 201 yards.
He's on a low-volume passing offense that just signed Sammy Watkins and drafted two more wide receivers, Rashod Bateman in the first round, and Tylan Wallace in the fourth round. Duvernay is a nice special teamer and will have a role on this team, but as a first-rounder, Bateman feels like a lock to start day one opposite Marquise Brown. Even if Duvernay wins that primary slot role, Lamar Jackson can barely support two fantasy-viable pass catchers. If Mark Andrews is a mid TE1 and Bateman/Brown are WR4s with upside, there's nothing left for Duvernay.
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