RADIO
Now this is going to be a fun little piece where a bunch of us here at RotoBaller get to swing for the fences. Bold Predictions, as the name implies, are all about calling your shot on some unconventional outcomes for the upcoming fantasy season.
I'll be putting on my Infinity Gauntlet and rubbing my Time Stone in the hopes of seeing into the future. That reference probably went over many of your heads but hey, it's a lot more fun than a crystal ball. Unless there's a DeLorean involved...I digress.
Without further ado, here are my bold predictions for the upcoming NFL season.
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Frankie Soler's Bold Predictions
1) Rob Kelley will finish the year as a top-15 running back in standard scoring..
Did I miss the Redskins holding a coronation ceremony for Samaje Perine? I'm not so sure why seemingly every warm body who talks fantasy football is anointing Perine as not only Washington's lead back, but as a lock to dethrone Rob Kelley without hesitation. Since the beginning of camp, Perine has notably struggled, opening up the dialogue for Kelley to go back to being the lead dog. See everyone? July chatter can sometimes be just that, chatter.
Since taking over as Washington's starter in Week 8 of last year, Kelley totaled 601 yards and six touchdowns. That's more yards than Devonta Freeman and more touchdowns than Jordan Howard over that span. I am fully aware that is some wonky math that happens to fit my argument, but the takeaway is that Rob Kelley can produce good numbers when given the chance. He's going to be the top back in Washington whether anyone wants to believe it or not and I'm confident that'll result in a top-15 season for Rob Kelley.
2) Jamison Crowder will be a non-factor in fantasy this year.
Jamison Crowder had a respectable year last year. It wasn't spectacular, but it wasn't stellar either. And yet, thanks to the departures of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, Crowder is getting way too much attention as a potential PPR specialist. There are certainly more targets available but it's not as many as some are leading on. Terrelle Pryor is the new No.1 receiver which means Crowder isn't automatically in line to be force fed the ball. Throw in Jordan Reed as the lead dog and Crowder is sort of the odd man out.
The Redskins have a great offense I just don't think Crowder will be a factor in fantasy. He was just outside WR2 territory in both standard and PPR with a slight edge to PPR. He didn't finish in the top-40 in the NFL in either receiving yards or receptions last year. Basically, pretty much all of his fantasy relevance came from seven touchdowns last year. He's an ok player and a flex at best.
3) Terrelle Pryor will end up being a top-12 wide receiver.
Purely by coincidence we have our third Redskin on the board. Terrelle Pryor goes from a porous quarterback situation in Cleveland to playing with Kirk Cousins. Pryor was a WR2 with the equivalent of Alvin and the Chipmunks throwing him the ball. (Note: my goal is to name a different random trio every time I mention last year's Browns quarterbacks.) To say Cousins is an upgrade would be a massive understatement.
The offense might run through Jordan Reed but Pryor is in line for a solid uptick in targets and receptions. He finished 2016 with 1,007 yards and four touchdowns. For some added context, Doug Baldwin had 1,128 yards and seven touchdowns and was a top-10 fantasy wide receiver. If Pryor can't up his yardage total by a measly 100 yards with a few extra TDs sprinkled in, that's on the Redskins, not him.
4) Martellus Bennett will finish as a top-five tight end.
The last time Martellus Bennett played all 16 games on a team he was the lead tight end he finished with 916 yards and six touchdowns on 90 receptions. That netted him, you guessed it, a top-five fantasy season. Now off to Green Bay as the team's clear-cut starting tight end, Bennett should have no problem returning to form. Oh, by the way, Bennett finished as TE10 in New England last year despite missing five games. So it's not even like a "bad" year would destroy his fantasy value anyway.
Playing in a Packers offense that has Aaron Rodgers and an impossible-to-defend receiving corps, Bennett could have himself a monster year. Tight end is a helter-skelter position so I'll gladly scoop up a late round TE with ridiculous upside.
5) Julius Thomas will finally return to being a top-10 tight end.
I felt a lot better about this one before Ryan Tannehill went down, but the signing of Jay Cutler restores some faith. Losing Tannehill hurts Miami's real life NFL chances but I don't think Cutler changes anything for fantasy. Cutler is more than capable of keeping the key playmakers involved. And if he's smart, he'll utilize Miami's newest weapon in Julius Thomas.
Remember the stats I just rattled off about Martellus Bennett? Well, they're equally important here. I'll repeat those numbers for you: Cutler and Bennett connected 90 times on 129 targets to the tune of 916 yards and six touchdowns. Again, Bennett was TE5 that year. That's a very long way of saying that when Jay Cutler recognizes he has a talented, healthy tight end at his disposal, he hones in on a key weapon. Expect that to be the case provided Cutler and Julius stay healthy.
As an added bonus, Cutler is playing with a familiar face in former Bears offensive coordinator in Adam Gase. Cutler had his second best year in Chicago under Gase so there's reason to believe he can produce.
6) TY Hilton will finish outside the top-10 at wide receiver.
I actually like TY Hilton as both a player and a fantasy asset. What I don't like is the current situation regarding quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck is currently on the pre-season PUP list although most reports claim he'll be ready for week one. Considering how the Colts have managed Luck's injuries in the past, I'm not certain that'll end up being the case. This franchise has seemingly bungled protecting their star asset, whether it's forcing him out there while hurt or failing to put together a competent offensive line.
Basically my prediction boils down to not believing Andrew Luck plays all 16 games this year. He might have managed to get through 15 last year but he was far from 100% thanks to Indy's inability to take care of him. He also only played seven games the year prior so it's not like he has a clean history. Now with shoulder complications, he's already starting off on the wrong foot. I'll reiterate that I don't believe the Colts are able to keep Luck upright consistently, amplifying the risk of injury in the process. PUP list or not, this prediction is 100% tied to Luck's health.
7) Derek Carr will break out as a top-five quarterback.
Admittedly, this one isn't all that crazy. Derek Carr's last two seasons have been as good as anyone's at the quarterback position. He's been just shy of 4,000 yards each of the last two years, with touchdown totals hovering around 30. With only six interceptions in 15 games last year, Carr's efficiency is improving as well. Throw in an increase in competition percentage each year he's been in the league and Carr's career is trending upward.
I'm banking on 32 touchdowns and 4,200 yards for Derek Carr's fourth NFL season, a line that would have been feasible if he hadn't gotten hurt in week 16. Having Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree at your disposal only makes this all the more feasible. It's a realistic expectation for an improving franchise quarterback. That's 700 yards short of Kirk Cousins in 2016 but with seven more touchdowns. You can't tell me Derek Carr is notably worse than Kirk Cousins can you? That stat line right there put would Carr in the top-five.
