Friday Football Matchups Analysis: Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

Not only have we made it to the end of the fantasy football season, but we have also made it to the end of 2020. Although fantasy football can feel like a full-time job, it is always important to recognize what really matters - family, friends, and your own personal well being. It has been a difficult year for everyone, and I know for me fantasy has been a great getaway from it all. First and foremost, I wish you all happy holidays and may 2021 greet you in good health. Secondly, I wish you all the best of luck in your fantasy matchups.

What an incredible fantasy week we had in Week 15. It was one of those weeks where every player seemed to produce for fantasy. This made for some heart-breaking losses for those who faced the likes of Tony Pollard, Logan Thomas, Leonard Fournette, or any teams that relied on the untimely busts of Keenan Allen and Davante Adams. Either way, we kick off Week 16 with a fantastic fantasy football matchup.

Following a devastating loss to their division rivals, the Vikings head to the Superdome to face the recently humbled New Orleans Saints. These teams have a lot of history in key matchups. The Saints have fallen victim to heartbreaking playoff exits in each of the last three years. For those who may not recall, two of those losses came in overtime, including the infamous No-Call pass interference by the Los Angeles Rams. The other two losses were at the hands of the Vikings, which is the matchup we have to start Week 16. This will be a heated game that is guaranteed to keep us warm this Christmas Day. I am honored to join you this holiday season and bring you the RotoBaller Friday Football analysis on Christmas Day.

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Friday 12/25 @ 5:30 PM EST

Notable Injuries:

• Michael Thomas (WR, NO) - Ankle - IR
• Tre'Quan Smith (WR, NO) - Ankle - Questionable
• C.J. Ham (RB, MIN) - Quadricep - Questionable
• Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN) - Concussion - Questionable
• Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN) - Foot - Questionable

Must-Starts

Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN): The top-scoring RB on the year takes the field in the first game of Week 16. Dalvin Cook has been an absolute beast in 2020. Not only has Cook been very efficient with his touches, but his volume has been absolutely absurd. Cook is averaging four targets and 22.8 carries a game. To put this in perspective, bell cow Derrick Henry is averaging 22.9 carries a game. The Vikings have committed to running their offense through their elite back, giving him one of the steadiest floors in fantasy. Plus, he is tied for the league’s most rushing touchdowns (15), meaning he also possesses week-winning upside.

I could sit here and tell you how the Saints are giving up the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, or that they are giving up the second-fewest rushing touchdowns per game… but with a back like Cook that doesn’t matter. Possibly temper your expectations based on the matchup, but sit back and enjoy watching him touch the ball 30+ times.

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO): It’s not often we get the top two fantasy running backs going head-to-head in Championship Week. Despite sitting 16th in rushing attempts, Alvin Kamara comes in as the RB-2 on the season (Half-PPR). This is largely due to his 15 total touchdowns and his elite ability as a pass-catcher. Despite losing Drew Brees for four games, Kamara has 80 receptions and 739 receiving yards. This is 13 receptions and 257 yards ahead of the next running back in these categories (J.D. McKissic).

Now that Drew Brees is back under center and Michael Thomas is on the IR, you can expect Kamara to be heavily involved in the passing game once again. Without Thomas in the lineup, he is averaging nine targets a game. Add in the fact that this Minnesota team just got torched by David Montgomery for 146 rushing yards, and you can expect Kamara to succeed on the ground as well. Personally, I have Kamara ranked over Cook this week, but both are elite fantasy options. 

Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen (WR, MIN): What a tandem these two have been all year. As arguably the best receiver duo in the league, it is no surprise that both are must-starts for Championship Week. Jefferson is currently the WR-7 and Thielen is the WR-10 in Half PPR scoring. In his rookie campaign, Jefferson is currently seventh in the league for receiving yards and is leading all rookies in targets. Thielen on the other hand is 28th in receiving yards at the position. What has saved him for fantasy are his 13 touchdowns which is third at the position.

Much like Cook, I could sit here and tell you how the Saints are allowing the fifth-fewest passing yards per game - but Jefferson and Thielen are good enough to overlook that. Of the two, I like the yardage and target upside of Jefferson better, however, both need to be started. Enjoy watching one of the nicest guys in football and a rookie that continues to breakout on Christmas Day.

Drew Brees (QB, NO): Although he looked rusty to start last week’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs, once he was warmed up, he quickly reminded us why he is one of the best in the game. Coming back from a very rough start to pull within three points of the reigning Super Bowl champs was a very impressive way to return from 11 broken ribs. Since Brees is the QB-14 in points per game at the position and doesn’t have his favorite target, Michael Thomas, you’re probably wondering why he is a “must-start” this week. Well, the answer to that is the matchup.

The Vikings are allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game and the seventh-most passing touchdowns per game. Plus, with weapons like Cook, Jefferson, and Thielen, you would think they will find a way to score points on any defense. Brees will look to rebound from their fourth loss of the season and will seek revenge in this matchup. I see Brees as a top-12 option this week and a fantastic option in two QB leagues. 

Solid Options

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN): As I alluded to previously, it’s hard to have your three main weapons as “must starts” and not at least be a solid option. On top of having the weapons, Cousins has been very solid for fantasy recently. Even though he is the QB-11 on the season since Week 11 Cousins is averaging the seventh-most fantasy points per game for current NFL starters. In this span, he has also passed for over 300 yards in three games. Unfortunately, Cousins’ fantasy ceiling is capped due to the team’s commitment to the run game. Cousins is 17th in passing attempts which is disappointing considering their defense gives up the seventh-most points per game. As a result, Captain Kirk only has one game above 25 fantasy points. Therefore, in this tough matchup and based on his recent production, I see him as an option only in two QB leagues. 

Emmanuel Sanders (WR, NO): Logically, Sanders should be a weekly start without Michael Thomas. Unfortunately, this is not what we have seen this season. I don’t mind Sanders as a flex-play/WR-three since he has five or more targets in each of his last three games. Plus, Tre'Quan Smith is currently questionable and not certain to play. Ultimately, this will increase Sanders’ potential upside. The Vikings are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points and a massive 1.5 touchdowns per game to the WR position. As a result, I am going deep with my Pie Shop* call as I think Sanders finds the pay-dirt for the fifth time this year.

*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week.

Consider Sitting

Jared Cook (TE, NO): After finishing last season as the TE-7 in 2019, Cook has had a very disappointing 2020 campaign. The nice thing is that in the nine games he has had with Brees, he has averaged 4.3 targets and is tied for sixth in touchdowns at the position. He has a solid chance of falling into the endzone in this matchup, but overall, I don’t like the play. If you are truly desperate for a play at the position you can roll-out Cook, however, I would rather avoid the potential risk. 

Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN): One of my favourite young players in the league has finally received the opportunity to produce as the primary pass-catching tight end on this offense. In his previous two games without Kyle Rudolph, he has seven catches on eight targets for 100 yards and a touchdown. Assuming Rudolph is out again, Smith is a threat to find the endzone this week. The Saints are allowing 0.5 touchdowns per game to the tight end position and I think Smith will fall on the right side of the 50%. I’m calling for the Pie Shop to be open for the 22-year-old TE. Of the two, I would rather play Cook due to the vacated targets from Michael Thomas but both are low-end TE-one plays in my rankings. 

Ellis’ Picks: Spread (9-8), Over/Under (9-8)

I think many people will view the Saints’ loss last week as reassurance that Kansas City is the best team in the league. I agree that the Chiefs are the best but I don’t think Drew Brees and company are far behind. KC clearly had a fantastic defensive game-plan and was able to hold Brees to zero passing yards and an interception in the first quarter. Despite this slow start and absence of one of the league’s best WRs, they managed to pull within a field goal.

Now they get to go against a Vikings team that was just exploited by David Montgomery and Mitchell Trubisky. Logically, the Saints should run all over them - but that's exactly what I thought before each of the Saints' playoff losses to the Vikings. Minnesota has a history of making these games closer than they should be. For a third straight time, I see the Vikings pulling a Christmas surprise and making this a tight game with their playoff hopes on the line. 

Vikings +7, Under 51.0

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