RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target Around ~58 Overall
CURRENT ADP: ~63
ANALYSIS: The Davis hype train has been steadily gaining steam all offseason and is one that I've been aboard for over a year now. He tends to be a very polarizing player to discuss because his success has been limited to this point and he of course had the record-setting performance against the Chiefs in the playoffs.
In his first two years, Davis produced 70 receptions for 1,149 yards and 13 touchdowns, which is pretty incredible considering he was only a starter in 15 of the 30 games he played. He was very productive despite receiving minimal targets. During this time, he was buried in the depth chart as the fourth option but now finds himself as the clear No. 2. Thus, 100+ targets this year is a realistic projection, which would vastly outpace the 63 targets and 10.9% target share he received in 2021.
What stands out most is the touchdown total, averaging 6.5 touchdowns per season in spite of his reduced playing time. This was further evidenced by the stretch he put together at the end of the last season into the playoffs. Including the playoffs, he produced 11 total receiving touchdowns last year, tying him with Dawson Knox for the team lead, giving him one more than Diggs.
All this supports the argument for Davis to have a productive season as a top-24 wide receiver with top-15 upside.
The Bills finished with 641 passing attempts in 2021 and are expected to be around that 650 mark again in 2022. Stefon Diggs had a 26% target share last year, so let's assign Davis a 20% target share as the No. 2 option. This would equate to 130 targets, which factoring in his career catch percentage of 56%, would result in 73 receptions.
Similarly, using his career yards per reception of 16.4 would equal 1,197 yards. It's possible that his catch percentage could improve with a greater variety of targets while his yards per reception could decrease with more volume but for now, we'll leave these as is.
This would provide a baseline of 36.5 fantasy points from his receptions and 119.7 fantasy points from his yards, totaling 156.2 points. That's about 9 fantasy points per week without even factoring in any touchdowns! Davis has been hyped up so much that it's possible that fantasy managers have "Davis hype fatigue" and that he's once again undervalued.
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