Gardner Minshew (QB, JAX) - Week 4 Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 2QB Leagues

OWNED IN: 8% of Leagues

ANALYSIS: I hope you don't bring prejudices with you and you can bear with me on this one. Gardner Minshew looks like a legit NFL quarterback. I'm saying that about a guy who plays at the most important position for a mediocre team in Jacksonville. Let's do some analysis because three weeks have shown more than enough as to consider him one of the top under-the-radar free agents out there for fantasy GMs.

First of all, Minshew is in quite a select group of rookie quarterbacks. Since the year 2000, only seven first-year QBs have started their seasons posting 60 or more total PPR points in their first three games. Minshew ranks fifth among them with 60.6 PPR. If we extend the query to consider also the consistency of those seven players during their first three games, only three of them (Minshew, Marcus Mariota, and Robert Griffin III) were able to log 20 or more PPR points in each of their first three games. Listen, Minshew is here to stay.

Through Week 3, Minshew has thrown 88 passes and completed 65 of them (73.8 completion percentage). He already has 692 yards, five touchdowns, and just one interception. On top of that, he's added 80 yards on the ground on 11 rushes. Some advanced stats make him look even better. He ranks in the 96th percentile in negating Bad Pass% (11.4%), 71st in Sack Rate (5.4%), and his receivers are only averaging 4.7 Yards After the Catch (which means almost all of his yards comes through the air).

While I'm not saying this is the case yet, Nick Foles' injury could have been a blessing in disguise for Jacksonville. There is not a chance Minshew would have featured as a starter for this team even if Foles had underperformed given the Jaguars low expectations for the year. They even traded for Joshua Dobbs when Foles went down, so you can imagine how confident they weren't about Minshew initially. Right now, he's only 5% owned yet he is playing better than half of the NFL starters. Don't buy names, buy production.