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In the fourth part of this series, I break down the next running backs in my rankings. If you're looking for some detailed analysis on the late-round backs, you've come to the right place!
Last season my draft rankings finished 61st overall in the FantasyPros accuracy competition. I hope to have another successful year in 2022.
In this article, I break down my thoughts RBs 31-42, and provide my projected statistic for each player. You can find the rest of my projections here. My name is Ellis, and I want to thank you all for checking out my work. Find me on Twitter @YoitsEllis_FF and let me know what you think!
Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings #31-42 (Half PPR)
August 2022 Update
31. Melvin Gordon III (RB, DEN):
I held onto the belief that this was going to be a 50-50 split for as long as I could. That's when the video of Gordon saying the team wants Javonte Williams to be the guy changed my perspective. I still think it will take longer than most people want to officially hand the reins to Williams, but it seems inevitable. Gordon, however, had a very solid season last year and showed that he still has some juice.
What gives me confidence that Gordon will still be effective for fantasy is his nose for the endzone. Since 2016, Gordon has scored 67 touchdowns in 84 games. Especially with this offense getting better with the arrival of Russell Wilson Gordon can keep scoring he could easily keep Williams outside of the top 15 backs once again. In the end, I think Gordon is a great high-upside flex play in 2022.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 781 | 198 | 26 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
32. Miles Sanders (RB, PHI):
To start this offseason I was all over Sanders being a great value. In fact, I ended up trading a pick that turned out to be George Pickens for him in my home dynasty league. Whoops. Either way, I'm not completely losing hope for 2022. This team has arguably the best run-blocking lines in the league and runs the ball more than any other team.
Despite the news from the camp being shaky, there has been no question that Sanders is still the lead guy. This is good news since the lead guy on a team like this can easily be valuable for fantasy. The only caveat is that they need to score touchdowns, which is something Sanders failed to do last season. Despite Sanders averaging nearly two red zone touches per game, he failed to find the endzone last year.
He is bound to score this year, especially with the offense getting better adding A.J. Brown. It's not a sexy pick, but Sanders has everything you are looking for as a late RB3 for 2022.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 891 | 92 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
33. Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS):
Out of respect for Brian Robinson, I am not going to change my analysis for either Robinson or Gibson.
What is going on with Gibson? Somehow the Commanders' new punt returner has finished both of his seasons as an RB1. Last season, he did this despite rushing for under 70 yards in 11 of 16 games (six of which had fewer than 50 yards). What saved his fantasy value was that the team committed to the run game, giving him the fourth-most carries in the league. This work would suggest a clear vote of confidence from the team’s management, but this offseason has said the opposite.
After retaining their pass-catching specialist J.D. McKissic, the team also went and drafted Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round. Early this offseason, Head Coach Ron Rivera has already discussed the backfield of Robinson and Gibson to be similar to his infamous committee of D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart back in Carolina.
Now it's looking like Robinson's backfield and Gibson scratching his way out of the dog house. Although terrifying, I think Gibson might still be involved and maintain a 50-50 split with B-Rob. It's hard to have much confidence in that projection, but if he keeps falling on draft boards, he might become a value regardless of his role.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 512 | 412 | 42 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
34. Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF):
Before things get too heated about Mitchell being this low, I want to clarify that I project him to average the 24th most points per game at the position this season. The issue is that I only project him to play 13 games. There are a few backs where injuries seem inevitable, and more often than not they are on the 49ers. Mitchell was great last season and exceeded all expectations.
All offseason we have heard that he is clearly the lead back, which on a Kyle Shanahan team is almost invaluable. Unfortunately, Trey Lance may limit touchdown upside even though he may open lanes for Mitchell to run through. As a result, I think Mitchell is the definition of a home run shot in drafts. Although I would draft him above my ranking, I would make sure I grab a Melvin Gordon or Miles Sanders for depth in case he misses time.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 894 | 61 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 8
|
35. Devin Singletary (RB, BUF):
A great team with a veteran back that finished the previous season on fire, what could go wrong? Well, that might all sound fine and dandy but I still think Singletary is a terrifying fantasy selection. Mainly, I think this is a result that his production will most likely be very inconsistent with Josh Allen rushing in touchdowns and James Cook catching the majority of passes. Plus, I think that it will be hard to predict Singletary's production based on matchup.
As a result, he's a headache I'm avoiding. If you can get him late enough, he could be a nice upside-depth piece. However, I expect most leagues will have that one manager who remembers the end of last season and over-drafts him.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 912 | 89 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
36. Cordarrelle Patterson (RB, ATL):
It's hard not to root for Patterson. Truly, there aren't many 30+-year-old players that emerge for fantasy in spectacular fashion. Plus, he did all of this while on one of the worst teams in the league. Despite being the RB7 through nine weeks last season, he has an ADP of RB37.
His passing work may decrease as the team does look quite different this year with Marcus Mariota and the addition of Drake London. However, there is not really another player to compete with him at RB. Like many of the backs in this section, it might not feel great selecting him, but he could easily be a top 30 back every week this season.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 618 | 310 | 41 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
37. Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU):
The drum beat has been fierce this offseason. After he was drafted in the fourth round, we saw a path for him to potentially have a substantial workload. Then, over the offseason and preseason, he officially overcame veteran RBs Rex Burkhead and Marlon Mack as the lead back.
This team is projected to run a lot, however, I still think they will use multiple backs. Plus, the team itself isn't great. As a result, he is an excellent volume depth back, but I think people will overreach his draft value over the next week.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 810 | 112 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
38. Brian Robinson (RB, WAS):
Out of respect for Brian Robinson, I am not going to change my analysis for either Robinson or Gibson. I wish all the best for the young star RB.
What a come-up this has been. From being relatively overlooked after being drafted in the third round by the Commanders, he now appears to have the starting role. For fantasy, B-Rob is fascinating as he is not flashy, fast, or relatively agile. However, what he is great at is not fumbling. This is a perfect trait for a back drafted to compete with a player who led the position in fumbles last year.
Although Robinson might get the bulk of carries, I think Head Coach Ron Rivera will quickly become frustrated with his lack of big play ability and return to a committee approach with Gibson. As soon as Robinson is named the starter (which seems inevitable) I think his rise in ADP will make Gibson the better value of the two. However, this is a situation that I'm going to try and avoid at all costs as there is too much uncertainty on a mediocre offense for me to buy in.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 805 | 29 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
39. Nyhiem Hines (RB, IND):
It's hard when you share a backfield with arguably the hottest back in the league, but thankfully for Hines, he has a very specific skill set. As one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, Hines should be able to carve out another solid role in this offense. Plus, Matt Ryan targeted the RB more than any other quarterback in the league last year.
If Ryan continues to get the backs involved in the passing game, Hines should be able to make the most of the opportunity. In the end, he is a solid RB3/4 option in PPR leagues with the added upside if Jonathan Taylor gets injured.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 290 | 412 | 44 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
40. James Robinson (RB, JAX):
I'm not going to lie, James Robinson baffles me. From beating all odds and exploding onto the fantasy scene, he seems to have recovered from a torn Achilles in record time. With all this going on, somehow all the reports out of camp say that he is still the team's lead guy. What makes this even more impressive is that this is being said despite first-round selection Travis Etienne looking great in the preseason.
I was ready to completely write Robinson off, but it appears he isn't out of tricks up his sleeve. I still have him missing five games this season, but if you believe the reports out of camp he is an exceptional value. If the price is right, I have no issue grabbing him everywhere.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 781 | 52 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
41. James Cook (RB, BUF):
Personally, I'm not a huge believer in James Cook. Nothing against the guy, he is an electric player and supposedly a nice person, I just don't see the fantasy upside on this team. Yes, the team has one of the best offenses in the league, but the team also hasn't had a consistent fantasy running back since Josh Allen was drafted.
Previously I mentioned how Matt Ryan targeted the RB the most in the league last season. Well, Josh Allen targeted the RB the seventh fewest times in the league. For a back who is projected to be the pass-catching specialist, this limits his upside. Plus, with Allen and Singletary already competing for rushing touchdowns, I struggle to see Cook providing any consistent fantasy value in 2022. In other words, I'm out on Cook this season.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 413 | 210 | 48 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
42 Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR):
What a mess this Rams' backfield is. Despite having all the potential in the world, we are currently starring down the barrel of a firm RBBC with two backs known to have injury risk. Henderson can be a great pick where he is being drafted if it truly is a 50-50 timeshare or if Akers were to be injured again.
Plus, we have a long sample size of Henderson being a gem for fantasy when given the full workload. As a result, I would way rather draft him over almost all backs in this portion of my rankings. However, he falls here in my ranks as my projections have him missing some games.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 610 | 96 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
43. Kenneth Gainwell (RB. PHI):
To contrast all the hate for Miles Sanders, there has been nothing but love for the newly crowned Kenny G. Gainwell had a sneaky season last year, averaging 4.3 yards per carry and scoring six times. What was also really interesting is that he was used around the goal-line a decent amount.
On a team that is no stranger to using undersized backs in the red zone (aka Boston Scott), this could be a sneaky valuable role for fantasy in 2022. The last point is that with Sanders being on a contract year if Scott has success they may not hesitate to give him the workload.
He's a very interesting pick in 2022 and this may be a great time to acquire him in dynasty leagues.
| Rush Yds | Rec Yds | Rec | Rec TD | Rush TD's | Total TD's |
| 410 | 271 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
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