Ellis Johnsons' Wide Receivers #30-40: Half PPR Draft Rankings

Last season my wide receiver draft rankings finished 15th in the FantasyPros accuracy contest. For this article, I have projected each player's stat lines and ranked where they line up. This is the fourth article in the series where I share my top 60 WRs. 

My projections are created based on the number of passing yards, completions, and touchdowns that I believe each team will get. Using previous year's data and the current betting lines for players' individual yards and touchdowns, I collected the data and made my projections

Here is the link to all of my rankings and projections for each position. I hope you enjoy the list!

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings #30-40

August 2022 update: I have included my pre-projection ranking in brackets

30. (31) Chris Godwin (WR, TB): What is going on with Godwin’s injury? At first, injury experts were speculating a November return, then he managed to avoid the training camp PUP. Who knows the exact timeline of his recovery, but it should be safe to say he is ahead of schedule. If that is the case and he only misses two or four weeks, he should be a great value. Often overshadowed by the consistent elite production of Mike Evans, Godwin should not be forgotten. Last season, he was seventh in fantasy points per game and only missed three games. Selecting Godwin is very dependent on how your draft is going; however, you know he is a low-end WR1 whenever he returns. For me, I only have him playing 14 games which is what drops him in my rankings.

31. (-) Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF): The best ball hotness has finally started to creep up boards in typical redraft leagues as well. It's not hard to see the upside. Much like people claiming Stefon Diggs can be THE WR1 in 2022 (which I firmly disagree with, check out my breakdown in my WR #11-20 article), Davis is also getting the Josh Allen boost in his ADP. What's fascinating about Davis is that he has been prolific in the red zone his entire career. Although I have him leading the team in receiving touchdowns, I am not sure the targets and yards will be there to make him a fringe WR2 option in 2022.

32. (44) Christian Kirk (WR, JAX): Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones Jr., and Evan Engram sounds like the base Madden Ultimate Team. This land of misfit toys is all being paid handsomely and connected to what is supposed to be the next first ballot hall of fame quarterback. It's hard to trust a team like the Jags, but they clearly saw something they loved in Kirk since they broke the bank to get him. As a result, it's hard to be confident ranking him for 2022; but with Trevor Lawrence potentially taking a step forward and the age-old "follow the money" narrative, Kirk could be sneaky for fantasy. I am not sure if he has fringe WR1 upside, but I wouldn't be surprised if his consistency makes him a low-end WR2 in 2022.

33. (26) D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA): In May, I asked if WR23 was too high for Metcalf. Then, in July I asked if WR26 was too high for him. Well, I decided both were. I know, he is an athletic monster and is assumed to be an elite player for fantasy. However, I think his true fantasy production is often overshadowed by his monster games. In 2020 and 2021, respectively, from Weeks 10 on, he was the WR23 and WR21. So with Russell Wilson, Metcalf wasn't a top-20 WR half the time over the last two years. Now, he will have Geno Smith to start the season, with the potential change to Drew Lock at any moment. I won’t spend time disrespecting Lock, but I’ll tell you the numbers of his receivers. In his last four starts in 2021, Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy failed to crack double-digit fantasy points with Lock under center. Thankfully, we got to see Metcalf with Smith last season and he managed to score five touchdowns in four weeks. This efficiency overshadows his two reception games where he had one catch for a 90-yard touchdown and his 83% catch rate with Smith. All this to say, who knows what will happen with Lockett and Metcalf, but I’m not optimistic for 2022 and won’t be rostering him in any of my leagues.

34. (39.) Elijah Moore (WR, NYJ): I'll be honest, after my projections this one really surprised me. It's hard having a Jets' WR this high, but I think Moore is the real deal. Despite not having Zach Wilson for parts of last year, he put up monster weeks with Joe Flacco under center. The good news is that Flacco will start the season under center, and once Wilson is back, it'll be hard for him to ignore Moore's production. As you can tell, I'm expecting a huge breakout and think he'll make next year's decision between him and first-round pick Garrett Wilson very interesting.

35. (32) Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET): St. Brown was amazing last year. Say what you will about the injuries to the other pass-catching options on this team, the sun god was red hot. Despite having T.J. Hockenson and Swift back healthy, and the additions of Jameson Williams and D.J. Chark, I think St. Brown will find fantasy success once again. Jared Goff is not the kind of QB that likes to take shots down the field and relies on the middle of the field to move the sticks. This is where St. Brown will live this season, and maintain enough volume to push WR2 numbers in the right matchups.

36. (38) Drake London (WR, ATL): After historic rookie seasons of Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle, it's weird having my first rookie WR this low. Having said that, I think the rookie expectations will come crashing down sooner rather than later. I think London is a very talented WR with a great future in the league, especially splitting the field with impending superstar Kyle Pitts. However, for this year, splitting Marcus Mariota with Kyle Pitts can't be a good thing. This team is projected to be one of the worst in the league (again), and won't have a lot of fantasy production to go around. I'd draft London higher than my ranking due to the potential upside of the unknown, but it's hard to project the production on such a mediocre team.

37. (35) Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA): It's not by much, but I have Lockett leading this team in receiving yards. Much like Tyreek Hill, there is the common misconception that Lockett is just a deep threat. Over the years with Russell Wilson, he has had his fair share of big plays, but the guy is a really great WR all around. In fact, I could see Geno Smith (or Drew Lock if he plays) lean on Lockett's speed and crisp route running between the 20s. Lockett always finds a way to perform, and I really like his draft value this year.

38. (37) Adam Thielen (WR, MIN): Despite getting up there in age, Thielen always seems to produce. Thankfully, all the reports out of camp also discussed that he hasn't lost a step and should be a red zone machine. In this new pass-heavy offense, there should be plenty to go around. The only thing is I have him missing a few games and K.J. Osborn taking a step forward. If he falls in your drafts, Thielen will be a fantastic value.

39. Hunter Renfrow (WR, LVR): Renfrow is a very hard player to rank this year. Firstly, with the addition of Davante Adams, it was hard to see him get the targets he needed to be successful. However, with the uncertainty of Darren Waller's injury and/or contract disputes, there might be a clear path for Renfrow to be the second option on this team.  I don't see much upside for him this season, but he should be a great value where he's going in drafts.

40. (41) Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG): This job is open for the taking, and Toney is clearly the guy. The only issue is that he can't seem to stay on the field. After being hurt in his rookie season, he is now out with another leg injury and may not be ready for Week 1. if Toney plays, he is electric and has the speed and agility to play a role much like Tyreek Hill or Deebo Samuel (not saying he is either player). Plus, if you've been following my work, you know I believe in Daniel Jones even to my detriment. When he's available he should push WR2 numbers, but a successful season all comes down to how much time he misses.

Stay tuned for my next article, where I discuss WRs #41-50!

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