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Having America's greatest pastime back in action creates such a sense of happiness that is hard to encapsulate. Spring is here, summer is approaching, and every team has hope. Is this the year your favorite player breaks out? This is the time of optimism!
Fantasy baseball teams are built through the draft, but an argument can be made that leagues are won through in-season management. Being able to leverage your lineups appropriately so that you are starting the players who are a) playing in the most games and b) are in the most favorable matchups will allow to accumulate as much statistics as possible, regardless of league format.
One common way to create the optimal lineup is streaming hitters off of the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It is very common to pick up pitchers who have a favorable matchups, but what about doing the same for hitters? Outside of batting average, the other four traditional 5x5 hitter categories are counting statistics, meaning that you can gain a legitimate edge by targeting undervalued hitters on the waiver wire you have the best opportunity to produce. That is the focus of this column. Every week, we will be taking a look at which hitters off the most valuable as streaming assets off the waiver wire. All of these players are under 50% owned in Yahoo leagues, yet could be premium contributors for the upcoming week. Who are these intriguing fantasy baseball streamers?
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What Teams Offer The Most Streaming Value?
When it comes to streaming hitters, outside of overall talent, there are three factors to play attention to:
- How many games is that team playing this week? Obviously, playing in the most games gives you the most opportunity to rack up the counting statistics we are looking for. Six games is the standard for a week, with anything above that very enticing and anything below that worrisome.
- What parks are they playing at? There is a major difference between playing your games in Colorado and playing your games in Oakland when it comes to offensive success. Targeting players who will benefit from playing in hitter-friendly targets is a great way to gain an edge over your opponents. For this study, we will be using Baseball Savant's park factors to rank the friendliness of the stadiums each team is playing at for this upcoming week.
- Which pitchers are they facing? To calculate the strength of opponent, we will be using Fangraphs Depth Chart's ERA projections for each starting pitcher they will face.
By taking the average park factor and projected opposing starting pitcher ERA for each of their games, and then adding a boost based on game played, we can accurately measure the "friendliness" of each team's upcoming matchups. Speaking of which, it is time for the great reveal!
Even though the Phillies play just six games this week, it is more that made up for by the quality of their matchups. They'll get three games in Colorado and another three at Citizens Bank Park, and get to face a weak Rockies rotation followed by the back-end of the Brewers' rotation. Outside of Freddy Peralta, there isn't much to be concerned about, though it is hard to find value on the waiver wire; they're more of a "stars and scrubs" roster that lacks necessary depth.
The Nationals and Diamondbacks, meanwhile, each have favorable matchups (they're playing each other, ironically), though their lack of overall offensive talent makes it difficult to find viable streaming options. As much as we want to focus on matchups, you still need to be starting hitters who have intriguing underlying talent.
Connor Joe, 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies
48% rostered
Come next week, I doubt Connor Joe will qualify as a "hitter streamer", and rightfully so.
As someone who consistently produced the minors but never got the opportunity to prove himself, Joe, after a tough 16-plate appearance debut after breaking camp with the Giants in 2019, finally got his chance to shine as a member of the Rockies as a 28-year-old. From there, there has been no turning back.
Since being called up to the majors last season, Joe has posted a .288/.387/.490 slash line, in addition to a strong 10.3% barrel rate with just a 19.1% strikeout rate. As someone who has great discipline with plus quality of contact numbers, he'll provide you with batting average and power, and theoretically makes sense at the top of the order for the Rockies' lineup.
It wasn't anticipated that Joe would be an everyday player for Colorado this year, even though he had the skills to thrive in that role. However, our worst fears have been invalidated! Joe has started in each of the past five games, and is the clear leadoff hitter against lefties. Considering the team finishes with two lefties (Tyler Alexander, Eduardo Rodriguez) next week, that is notable.
Although the Rockies have to face Aaron Nola, it is at Coors Field, and the Phillies' defense is expected to be amongst the league's worst groups this year. That voids well for his batting average production, which will only get boosted facing the likes of Kyle Gibson, Zach Eflin, and Tyler Alexander; all of whom can allow high batting averages on balls in play and don't miss a lot of bats. You'd wish they didn't have to travel to Detroit following their series in Colorado, but there is a strong case to start Joe regardless of matchup right now. While he's still available on the waiver wire, get him now before it's too late!
Gio Urshela, 3B/SS, Minnesota Twins
40% rostered
Remember when Gio Urshela had established himself as the everyday third baseman for the Yankees? It feels like a long time ago, but as recently as between 2019 and 2020, Urshela was quite the offensive producers for the Bronx Bombers:
- .310/.358/.523, 650 PA, 27 HR, .212 isolated power (ISO)
It did come with a somewhat high .340 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and a modest 6.5% barrel rate, but even with baked in regression, Urshela appeared to be someone who'd provide you with a strong batting average thanks to his contact trajectory and contact skills, with competent power as well. Fast forward to 2021, however, and things didn't go as planned.
Urshela's strikeout rate ballooned to 24.7%, while his power (.152 ISO) wasn't there as well. Considering it came with an improved 8% barrel rate, there were reasons to think the power should have been better, but the worse batting average was a concern. After being traded from the Yankees to the Twins, he lost most of his fantasy appeal heading into the 2022 season.
However, so far, Urshela has looked more like his 2019-2020 self. His swinging-strike rate is down to 9.8% so far, while he's been more aggressive as well; that approach is what allowed him to maintain a lower strikeout rate in 2019. I'm in line with Fangraphs' Depth Charts projections as a .260-.270 hitter with average power, which can definitely help your team; his middle infield eligibility is a major boost.
Minnesota has a few factors working in its favor. They have the second-easiest projected opposing starting pitcher ERA, and also have an above-average overall park factor for the upcoming week as well. Plus, they also get to play seven games. Against a weaker group of pitchers, Urshela could certainly end up helping your batting average, while his runs + RBI totals will get a boost playing seven games in the middle of the Twins' lineup. It's not the "sexy" pick, but that doesn't mean it isn't the right one.
Mike Yastrzemski / Joc Pederson, OF, San Francisco Giants
35% / 9% rostered
There is no team in the MLB that currently utilizes a platoon more than the Giants. Last season, it became comical how many different lineup assortments they could have, and it is a major reason why they were able to overachieve their expectations last season; they're able to get the most from their players by putting them in the most optimal situations.
This week, they'll not only play seven games, but six of them will be against righties. That is great news for Mike Yastrzemski and Joc Pederson, each of whom will get significant playing time next week.
The results (.067 ISO, 53 weighted-runs-created-plus/wRC+) haven't been there for Yastrzemski, but his underlying numbers (9.1% barrel rate, 25% strikeout rate) are in line with where he's been throughout his career; he'll serve as a .240 hitter with plus power who'll hit at the top of the Giants lineup, leading to strong totals in terms of runs scored. There's a decent chance that he could see his rostership take a dip, but you should want to buy that dip!
Pederson, on the other hand, is very comparable to Yastrzemski. In a limited sample size, he's generate the same quality of contact that he has allows done, and is a clear bet on power and RBIs hitting cleanup against righties. Once again, he's not a boost for your batting average, but if you're in need of power on the waiver wire, I'll gladly take my chances with him.
For what it's worth, the Giants' two opponents, the Mets and Nationals, are very right-handed heavy when it comes to their bullpen construction. This helps Yastrzemski and Pederson further, making them a strong bet for power this week. Really, you can't go wrong with either one! It's hard to bank on this team for consistent fantasy production due to their platoon usage, so we have to take advantage when we can.
Darin Ruf, 1B/OF, San Francisco Giants
3% rostered
An everyday player for the Giants? What is this?
Coming into the season, the expectation was that Darin Ruf, similarly to 2021, would be a part-time player who would be in line for about 400 plate appearances. Yet, few teams have been hit by the injury bug like San Francisco. Currently, the team is without LaMonte Wade Jr., Evan Longoria, and Tommy La Stella, leading to them having to get more creative.
To be fair, there isn't any reason why Ruf shouldn't naturally be the everyday designated hitter. Since returning from the KBO in 2020, he has a 143 wRC+, in addition to a .238 ISO and .383 on-base percentage. Really, outside of Brandon Belt, he's the Giants' second-best hitter!
All that matters right now is that Ruf is seeing everyday at bats, usually hitting third for San Francisco. That is prime position for runs and RBI opportunities, especially since the team plays seven games this week. Meanwhile, with the power he has, every opportunity for more home runs is a bonus.
Add in his corner infield/outfield eligibility, and there is not any reason for Ruf to be rostered in 3% of Yahoo leagues. We'll see what happens moving forward, but the opportunity and talent are both there right now. If you start him, it shouldn't be very "Ruf"!
Gavin Sheets, 1B/OF, Chicago White Sox
1% rostered
There has been a lot of frustration about the lack of consistent playing time for Andrew Vaughn, and for good reason. Vaughn was an elite college performer and the #3 overall pick in the 2019 draft, and all projections peg him as an above-average hitter; there is a chance for him to grow into an elite one down the one.
However, we shouldn't discount the talent of Gavin Sheets. The combination of an above-average barrel rate (9.9%) and strong plate skills (88.4% zone-contact%) was quite impressive over his 179 plate appearances in his MLB debut, and align with the power breakout he seemed to be experiencing in Triple-A (.211) as well.
See, the plate skills have always been there for Sheets, but we've been waiting on the power to come. Can we say it is officially here? The early MLB sample size is very encouraging, meaning that you should be getting solid power without a poor batting average, especially if you believe the optimistic projections for him.
The main issue with Sheets in weekly leagues is the playing time. As someone who only plays against right-handed pitchers, he's tough to put in the lineup when you know he'll get yanked when a lefty comes in, hurting his overall counting stats. That won't matter this week, though; the White Sox face SEVEN right-handed pitchers this week!
This is tremendous news for Sheets' playing time projection this week. This is another case, similar to Ruf (albeit to a lesser extent) where the skills are there, but we've been skeptical about the opportunity he'll get. He'll be getting it this week against a favorable schedule, and you should take full advantage. In a deeper league and not able to land Connor Joe? Sheets is quite the fallback plan.
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