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Remember how we looked at Vidal Brujan and Alek Manoah in last week's column? Well it turns out those were two good guys to be looking at as one will be getting called up this week and the other could be getting the call very soon.
When news broke on Friday that the Rays had traded shortstop Willy Adames to the Brewers, many fantasy managers began quickly speculating on whether that meant Wander Franco would be getting called up, or possibly Brujan (my pick for who would get the call first). Instead we got another shortstop prospect coming up in Taylor Walls, who looks to have power and speed potential somewhat similar to Brujan — albeit not as high a ceiling. But I still anticipate Brujan getting the call in the near future and have already stashed him in our RotoBaller staff league.
Meanwhile, Manoah — the No. 3 pitching prospect in Toronto's system according to MLB Pipeline — is getting called up this week and will make his first career start against the Yankees on Wednesday. And given his high strikeout rate in the minors, as well as the Yankees hitting slightly worse this year against right-handers, I think Manoah could be in line for a solid debut. Speaking of pitchers, this week's column is the All-Pitching special. Let's take a look at some of these pitching prospects you should be keeping an eye on.
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Nick Lodolo - SP, Cincinnati Reds
Level: Double-A
2021 stats: 3 GS, 15.2 IP, 1-0, 0.57 ERA, 0.830 WHIP, 24 K
The No. 7 overall pick in the 2019 draft, Lodolo looked good in his first year of pro-ball with a 2.45 ERA and 0.982 WHIP over eight starts between Advanced-Rookie Billings and Single-A Dayton. He proved to be a strikeout machine in that first season with a 40.5 percent strikeout rate while not allowing a walk over 18 1/3 innings of work.
That was Lodolo in 2019, and already through three starts this year he is showing that the cancelled minor league season has not slowed him down at all. He's allowed just one run over 15 2/3 innings of work while posting slightly better numbers with a 40.7 percent strikeout rate and 0.830 WHIP. And while he's finally issued the first free passes of his professional career, he only has an 8.5 percent walk rate for this year, and a 3.8 percent rate for his career.
While he's not looking slowed down from the missed 2020 season, it has still hurt him in the sense that he could have potentially been vying for significant playing time this season with Cincinnati if he had pitched last year. As it stands, he has a grand total of 34 innings under his belt over his career in the minors. I still think we could see him get called up at some point late in the year, but don't expect significant value from him until 2022. Dynasty managers should start looking at acquiring him if possible.
Brayan De Paula - SP/RP, Houston Astros
Level: Low-A
2021 stats: 4 G, 2 GS, 13.2 IP, 2-0, 1.98 ERA, 1.317 WHIP, 21 K
After a rough start to the season, De Paula has turned things around this last week by going 2-0 with 15 strikeouts over nine scoreless innings — allowing just one hit and three walks in that span. He now has a very nice looking 35 percent strikeout rate this year, however that is countered by his not so nice looking 21.7 percent walk rate. That'll happen when you allow 10 walks in your first 4 2/3 innings of the season.
And while this year I'm going to tend to not judge pitching as harshly after the missed year in 2020 — at least I won't judge too harshly early on — I can't exactly overlook the face De Paula has a career 10.5 percent walk rate in the minors. Obviously not as bad as this year, but still not ideal.
De Paula is at least a year and a half — maybe two years — away from the majors. And I know there isn't a whole lot to like about that walk rate, but I just have a gut feeling that the Astros will be able to work their pitching magic and unlock his full potential. I'll readily admit that De Paula is the longest shot to make the majors on this list, and I'm not even recommending dynasty managers to look into acquiring him. What I am saying is keep an eye on him this year. If he can figure out the walks issue, I think he could develop into a solid pitcher for Houston.
Caleb Kilian - SP, San Francisco Giants
Level: High-A
2021 stats: 4 GS, 21.2 IP, 3-0, 1.25 ERA, 0.462 WHIP, 32 K
Kilian is in a similar boat to Lodolo this year. They were both high draft picks in 2019 (Lodolo in the first, Kilian in the eighth), they have less than 40 career innings pitched in the minors and they both look to be high strikeout pitchers. He's averaged eight strikeouts per start this year, and his last time out on the mound he tossed seven scoreless innings against the Tri-City Dust Devils — allowing just one hit while striking out 10. He now sports a career 37.7 percent strikeout rate and has allowed just three walks over 37.2 innings of work as he owns a miniscule 2.3 percent career walk rate.
He's gotten off to a great start for his career, but the thing managers should keep in mind is that he's been on the older side for pitchers at each stop he's made, as he's currently just over a half year older than the weighted average age for pitchers at High-A. He's looked good so far, but the bigger test will be how he performs when he gets promoted to Double-A.
If he continues to pitch like he has so far, that promotion should be coming in very soon, and if he pitches well at Double-A I think the potential exists where we might see him make a couple appearances in San Francisco by the end of the year. That might be a bit of a stretch, but regardless of whether he does or not, managers should start keeping a close eye on him. And if he does get called up at any time this year, I would put him in the category of high-risk, high-reward streaming option or a good SV/HLD format option depending on where he is utilized.
Ryan Smith - SP, Los Angeles Angels
Level: Low-A
2021 stats: 3 G, 2 GS, 15.1 IP, 2-0, 1.76 ERA, 0.848 WHIP, 29 K
And now last but not least we get to our third 2019 draft pick. Stop me if you've heard this one before: not many innings under his belt, but he's a strikeout machine. Out of the three 2019 draft picks here, Smith has the most innings of work in his career at 41 innings. Unlike the other two however, Smith struggled considerably in 2019 at Advanced-Rookie Orem. Over 19 appearances out of the bullpen, Smith went 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA, 1.442 WHIP and 10.6 percent walk rate.
Despite those struggles, he still showed good strikeout potential with a 32.7 percent strikeout rate. Now in 2021, Smith is looking like an almost completely different pitcher at Low-A Inland Empire. His "worst" appearance so far has come in his lone game out of the bullpen, where he allowed two runs on three hits and two walks in 4 1/3 innings of work. But in his two starts this year, he's combined to allow just one run while striking out 21 in 11 innings of work.
I am liking what I'm seeing out of Smith so far, but I want to see him put up similar numbers at High-A and/or Double-A before I start ranking him too highly. Given the Angels' track record of pitchers getting injured or majorly underperforming, the cynical part of me thinks that Smith could end up in the majors quicker than anyone else on this list. The realistic part of me though knows that Smith is in a similar spot to Kilian and Lodolo, where I could see a handful of appearances coming near the end of the year, but any real value won't come until 2022. That being said, I do think he could have a pretty quick path to the majors if he continues to perform, and managers in dynasty leagues who are looking for pitching lottery tickets might want to consider stashing Smith if he continues to pitch like this.
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