RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~180
CURRENT ADP: ~200 overall
ANALYSIS: Despite hitting .279 with 26 home runs, 84 RBI and a .348 on-base percentage in 2019, Dozier still has an undervalued ADP of 190 heading into 2020. Owners may be reluctant to buy into Dozier’s breakout given his past MLB struggles or believe that it may have been the result of a juiced ball. His peripheral stats, however, support his 2019 accomplishments and point to more of the same going forward. As a first-round pick by the Royals in 2013, the pedigree was there. His breakout just took longer than expected.
In 2019, Dozier’s numbers were supported by his 16.7-degree launch angle, a 94.2 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD which was equal to that of Mookie Betts, a 42.6 hard-hit % and a significant reduction in his ground ball rates from years past. In addition, Dozier’s splits were consistent in both halves of the season and against both lefties and righties.
Owners looking for value at third base and in the outfield should target Dozier if he falls in drafts due to the belief that 2019 totals were a one-off headed for regression. This season could be the last chance to get Dozier at a reduced draft price or, in the case of keeper and dynasty formats, at a low-trade cost from skeptical current owners.
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