IDP Free Agent Moves - Fantasy Risers and Fallers

We are now three days into the start of the real offseason and many moves have already been made. The Patriots have gone on a spending spree, the Jets made several significant moves, and Oprah interviewed… wait, that's for a different blog.

Anyways, the point is that a lot has changed in just three days of free agent moves, and a significant number of those changes occurred on the defensive side of the ball. That’s why we are dropping in to do a thorough analysis of how these early free agency moves should impact your IDP rosters and rankings.

What follows is a list of the fantasy-relevant defenders whose stock has been impacted, positively or negatively, by the first two days of free agency. Keep in mind that some things can still change.

J.J. Watt to the Arizona Cardinals

Last year was one of J.J. Watt’s more durable seasons in recent memory, as he managed to play in all 16 of Houston’s games while seeing 87% or more of the team’s defensive snaps in all but one of those matchups. Unfortunately, 2020 was also the worst complete fantasy season that Watt has ever produced. Except for his rookie year, Watt hadn't failed to reach double-digit sacks and 60+ tackles in any full-season he ever played… until last year. Last year, the motor and leadership were still there, but something was clearly missing from the former Defensive Player of the Year's once-dominant game.

While some of Watt’s low 2020 output can be blamed on a Houston secondary that allowed an abysmal 118.2 quarterback rating, fantasy managers shouldn’t assume that a move to the desert will improve his statistical output. After all, the Cardinals are reportedly planning to rest Watt far more than Houston ever did. It’s a plan that could ultimately make Watt more efficient, but it would also limit his opportunities and make him a big-play-dependent asset. What’s even worse, Arizona has already watched their best cover corner and pass rusher from 2020 leave town, meaning Watt could see his snaps drop while his secondary again has holes in it.

If the oft-injured Watt is only getting 35 snaps per game on a defense that could be lacking a true shutdown corner, his fantasy value in a suddenly deep DL group will sink further than it already was. Sad as it is to say, Watt is no longer the DL1 he used to be. He is now a DL2.

J.J. Watt’s Fantasy Stock: Down

Chandler Jones’ Fantasy Stock: Up, if healthy

Bud Dupree to the Tennessee Titans

Bud Dupree’s new digs should make his return from a late-season knee injury harder than it would have been had he done his rehab in Pittsburgh. Now, the pass-rushing linebacker will not only be working overtime to return from injury, but he will also be learning a new system that has far less talent in it than Pittsburgh's did.

While Jeffery Simmons and Harold Landry III are real talents, they aren't T.J. Watt. Tennessee also lacks the depth Pittsburgh had along its defensive line and in its secondary. Those facts will make Dupree's job much harder. The odds are that both Simmons and Landry III will benefit more from Dupree's presence than he will benefit from them.

Doubts about Dupree’s health and Tennessee’s lack of Watt-age (see what I did there?) make the former Steeler an LB4 in sack-premium leagues or a mid-tier DL3 in leagues where he qualifies. Do not discount the impact Dupree could have on Simmons’ fantasy value, however. Simmons should be considered a top-ten staple at the DT position.

Bud Dupree’s Fantasy Stock: Down

Jeffery Simmons’ Fantasy Stock: Up

Harold Landry III’s Fantasy Stock: Up

Haason Reddick to the Carolina Panthers

The first question many IDP managers have about Reddick isn’t about his new location. Rather, people want to know if his 2020 season was for real. It’s a good question to ask too since Reddick wasn't considered an elite pass rusher in college or the pros until this past year.

Although he doesn’t have the trimmings of your traditional sack artist, Reddick has been surprisingly effective as a pass rusher throughout his pro career. In his first three years, he averaged one quarterback pressure for every 7.8 pass rush attempts he was given, and last year, that rate rose only slightly (one per 7.3 rushes). For context on what those numbers mean, consider that Myles Garrett pressured quarterbacks once every 9.01 pass-rush attempts last season, and the best season of Dee Ford’s career saw him pressure a passer once every 7.4 rushes.

So, if Reddick was just as efficient a pass rusher last year as he always was, why did his sack total skyrocket last year? Was he just lucky in 2020, or was it bad luck in the years prior?

Perhaps the biggest reason Reddick saw his sack numbers triple last year was that the Cardinals nearly tripled his pass rush opportunities. Arizona brought the Temple product as a pass rusher 412 times last season, which almost matched the total from his previous three years combined (456). Obviously, the first ingredient for a sack is for a player to be put in a position to get that sack, and Reddick was put in a position to do that far more last year than he ever was. Carolina should replicate that usage if they want to improve a pass rush that ranked just 23rd in sacks last season.

The second reason that Reddick saw his sack numbers skyrocket last year was his increased pressure-to-sack efficiency. Coming into last season, Reddick collected a sack once every 7.79 times he generated pressure. Last year, that rate nearly doubled, seeing him convert a sack once every 4.5 pressures. This type of increase almost always requires some luck, but it isn’t an increase that is beyond sustainable, either. Reddick could see his sack conversion rate even out to six pressures per sack if players like Brian Burns and Duane Brown take another step in their development and help push passers Reddick’s way.

Taking Reddick’s career metrics into account, fans should feel comfortable drafting him as a DL2 this season. He currently projects to have 63 tackles, 7.5 sacks, and three turnovers in 2021. Defenders like Burns, Brown, and Jeremy Chinn should also see an increase in productivity with Reddick and others on board.

Haason Reddick’s Fantasy Stock: Down Slightly (Regression to Mean)

Brian Burns’ Fantasy Stock: Up

Duane Brown’s Fantasy Stock: Up

Jeremy Chinn’s Fantasy Stock: Can it go any higher than it already was?

Yannick Ngakoue to the Las Vegas Raiders

Ngakoue’s signing with Las Vegas may look bad on its face, especially to casual fans of defense. After all, the Ravens have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, and the Raiders have one of the worst. Not all is as it seems, however.

The truth is that Ngakoue performed quite poorly with the Ravens, at least for fantasy purposes. He projected to secure a measly 5.3 sacks over a full-season with a loaded Baltimore defense, but he projected to get 13 sacks over a full-season with the porous Minnesota defense. That difference in projections is tied almost entirely to Ngakoue’s opportunity rate. The Maryland product averaged a fantasy-friendly 59 snaps per game with the Vikings and just 35 snaps with the Ravens. That swing was so large that it didn't matter if Ngakoue was more efficient with better players in Baltimore because he wasn't on the field enough to reap the rewards.

We mention this swing in projections primarily to get across that the Raiders’ lack of defensive talent shouldn’t change your projections for Ngakoue too much. The talent he played within Minnesota wasn't much better than what Las Vegas has, if it was better at all. Maxx Crosby and the Raiders' young secondary could improve, or not. It won't matter much. What matters is that the Raiders are paid up for Ngakoue, which means they will use him a lot. Pencil him in as your DL16 for now, knowing he is a sack and FF reliant asset.

Yannick Ngakoue Fantasy Stock: Up

Maxx Crosby Fantasy Stock: Up

Carl Lawson to the New York Jets

Carl Lawson doesn't seem like a guy worth the huge money the Jets just gave him, at least not to the naked eye. But if you look deeper, you'll see just how valuable Lawson can be. For example, Lawson averaged more quarterback pressures per game last year (four) than Bud Dupree did, despite Lawson averaging ten fewer snaps per game. What’s even better, Lawson had more quarterback hits in 2020 than star pass rushers like Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, and J.J. Watt.

Lawson's key to becoming a real fantasy asset is his ability to turn pressures and quarterback hits into sacks. It’s lucky then that he will be playing for a defensive mind like Robert Saleh. Remember that Saleh’s 49er defense averaged nearly twice as many sacks per game as Lawson’s Bengals did last year despite the fact the 49ers were missing Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, and Richard Sherman for a majority of the season. If Saleh could coax an average performance out of a San Francisco unit decimated by injuries, he should be able to unlock the full potential of a talented duo like Lawson and Quinnen Williams.

Consider Lawson a buy-low candidate in IDP formats right now. Many people will fade him due to his low sack numbers and the fact he is joining a bad Jets team, but Lawson has the potential to be a high-end DL2 if all goes right. Meanwhile, consider Williams a DT1 thanks to his new coach and the addition of Lawson.

Carl Lawson’s Fantasy Stock: Up

Quinnen Williams’ Fantasy Stock: Up

William Jackson III to the Washington Football Team

Very few cornerbacks are actually fantasy-relevant, with the DB position usually filled by safeties or linebackers who somehow qualify as a DB. Cornerbacks simply don’t get the volume of opportunities for fantasy points that safeties and linebackers do.

Jackson III is a good example of how a very good NFL cornerback can see his fantasy opportunities limited by his own effectiveness. Last year, quarterbacks threw at Jackson III just 69 times all season, and he lined up in the box just 67 times. That spells a total of 136 real opportunities to make a play or 9.7 opportunities per game. This kind of low opportunity rate isn’t uncommon for most corners, and it tends to make all cornerbacks big-play dependent in fantasy.

With all of that said, some IDP leagues require you to play a CB, and Jackson III just became a top-10 option thanks to his signing with Washington. By joining the likes of Chase Young, Montez Sweat, and Jonathan Allen, Jackson III should see far more opportunities for big plays than he did in Cincinnati. Washington's elite defensive front should pressure a lot of opponents into sending at least two or three bad balls Jackson's way each game. That increases his likelihood of big plays and makes him a top-ten fantasy corner.

On a side note, Jackson III should also help those in Washington’s pass rush. He is the best corner most of these young pass rushers have played with, and he should create more time for them to get to the passer.

William Jackson III’s Fantasy Stock: Up

Washington Pass Rushers’ Fantasy Stock: Up

Patrick Peterson to the Minnesota Vikings

Again, fantasy corners have a tough time producing consistent points. The better the corner, the less likely they will be targeted, which means lower fantasy opportunities. For years, Patrick Peterson has been one of the bigger victims of this trend.

Peterson isn’t the shutdown cornerback he used to be, but opponents still avoid him. Last year, he averaged just 7.5 opportunities for fantasy points per game, which won’t be much different this year. The Vikings should be getting Danielle Hunter back healthy, which helps, but the other corners in Minnesota’s secondary are still young and vulnerable. Expect quarterbacks to target them and not Peterson when they can. Peterson is still a solid cover corner with the ability to return any mistake for a touchdown, and opponents know that.

Look for this former Cardinals star to be a high-end CB3 this year, with some added value if Minnesota allows him to return some kicks and that matters in your league. The only real fantasy impact of Peterson joining Minnesota is that he slightly improves the potential of Hunter and other Vikings defenders over what it was previously.

Patrick Peterson’s Fantasy Stock: Stagnant

John Johnson III to the Cleveland Browns

The primary impact of Johnson III joining Cleveland is on the defensive unit as a whole. Cleveland’s D/ST unit should be higher in your fantasy ranks this year thanks to this addition, plus the hopefully healthy returns of Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams. The impact of this move on Johnson III’s IDP value is much less clear, however.

The primary concern about this move is that Johnson III is leaving a very comfortable situation in Los Angeles. The Rams' defense has been incredibly fantasy friendly to its safeties since Sean McVay came to town, making fantasy starters out of Johnson III, Taylor Rapp, and Jordan Fuller in that time. Theirs is a system that puts players in the right positions to succeed, and it helps that they have Aaron Donald wrecking offensive lines too. Leaving that kind of friendly unit could have unforeseen effects on Johnson III, even if the Browns have a talented unit themselves.

Overall, anticipate the Browns using Johnson III much like he was in Los Angeles. He should spend time all over the field, collecting tackles in the box while tipping passes in coverage. He isn't elite at any one thing, but his fantasy floor is high enough to keep him as a low-end DB1 in most fantasy formats. Don't overpay for him, though, because he is leaving a very friendly situation for a team that plays some very stingy offenses in Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

John Johnson III’s Fantasy Stock: Down (Slightly)

Rayshawn Jenkins to the Jacksonville Jaguars

It is hard to say just how well Jenkins will fit in Jacksonville given that the Jaguars’ head coach (Urban Meyer) and defensive coordinator (Joe Cullen) are both new to their roles in the NFL. However, we know that Cullen comes from a Baltimore Ravens defensive scheme with a history of producing sharp pass rushers and fantasy-relevant defensive backs like Marlon Humphrey and Chuck Clark. That’s a good start.

While it’s too early to call Jenkins a fit in Jacksonville’s new scheme, odds are Coach Cullen plans to use him similarly to how Baltimore uses Clark. During his time as a Charger, Jenkins' metrics and usage stack up pretty closely to Clark's. Given those similarities and the likely role awaiting him, expect the University of Miami product to split his time evenly between run and pass support. That should help him total 75+ tackles and three turnovers per season while ranking as a low-end DB2 in most IDP drafts.

Rayshawn Jenkins’ Fantasy Stock: Stagnant

Samson Ebukam to the San Francisco 49ers

Samson Ebukam never fully flourished in his four years with the Rams, with both his snaps and contributions capped every year. That said, there are two reasons for fans to hope he will be a bargain for both the 49ers and IDP managers this year.

One reason to expect more from Ebukam in San Francisco is his solid pressure rate (one per 8.95 rushes) last year despite a lack of well-developed pass rush moves. Ebukam’s lack of pass rush moves can be viewed as a positive because the 49ers have two of the best in the trade at teaching/practicing technique. Their defensive line coach Kris Kocurek is considered one of the best in the NFL, and Nick Bosa is an elite technician despite his youth. In fact, both of those influences were specifically cited as reasons Ebukam chose to join the 49ers.

The second reason to be optimistic about the Eastern Washington product is the snap opportunities he could see in San Francisco. As you know, opportunity is king in fantasy, and Ebukam’s opportunities were limited to just 36% of the Rams' defensive snaps last year. There could be far more opportunities coming in San Francisco, however. He may be the 49ers' primary replacement for Dee Ford (whose career is in jeopardy) at defensive end on passing downs next year, and it's also possible they let him compete for their SAM position on base downs.  If he can handle both those spots, Ebukam’s opportunity rate would more than double.

If Ebukam is the primary pass rusher across from Nick Bosa and next to Arik Armstead, his fantasy value should remain around a DL5. However, if he can earn an every-down role as a SAM/pass rusher hybrid in this defense, his fantasy value could rise to the level of mid-tier DL3 by August.

Samson Ebukam’s Fantasy Stock: Up

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