RADIO
We all do it. We get overconfident in our projections and we start making calls we shouldn’t. Whether you’re a desperate manager who started Tua and his terrific matchup over a "slumping" Aaron Rodgers this week, or a cheap dad who thinks Dr. Thunder is the same as Dr. Pepper (it isn't), everyone makes these sorts of mistakes. We mention these difficult decisions because out-thinking yourself is a particularly common ailment in IDP circles. Because of the nature of defensive stats, how inconsistent defenders are and how dependent most are on matchups, IDP managers often find themselves overvaluing matchups and undervaluing talent.
A perfect example of overthinking things came this past weekend in the matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets. Going into that game, it seemed clear that the Dolphins were on the upswing. Their defense dominated an explosive Ravens offense last week. Next on the schedule was the immobile Joe Flacco standing behind a Jets offensive line surrendering 15.3 pressures and 11.7 quarterback hurries per game. So why wouldn’t we expect players like Emmanuel Ogbah, Jerome Baker, and Christian Wilkins to have improved IDP upside in Week 11? Of course, all of those projections and all of that logic didn't pan out. Most of Miami's front-seven disappointed in an elite matchup and reminded us of how fickle projections can be.
The Dolphins' defense wasn't the only disappointment this week though. IDP mainstays Harold Landry III and Jeffery Simmons were also disappointments in a great matchup against Houston. Their disappointment was a different kind, however. If you played Landry and Simmons, you did something right. If you play them next week, you’re doing it right again. The two Titans are elite talents with established resumes, even in tough matchups. Playing them every week isn't the same as starting lower-tier Dolphins or Saints who have a great matchup. Remember that, as obvious as this advice may be, talent always wins out. Don't make the mistake of valuing a player's matchup over his resume. Sometimes you don't have a choice, but often you do…. And with that, let’s get on with our Weekly IDP Waiver Priorities. Remember that defenders only qualify if their roster percentage falls below 20% in IDP leagues.
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Jeffery Simmons, DL, Tennessee Titans
Rostered in 16.8% of IDP leagues
Simmons is getting close to not qualifying for this list, but he still does. Many of you just lost Chase Young and Khalil Mack as your starter, and Simmons is likely an upgrade over what either of those two was giving you this year. While the Patriots pose a tough matchup next week, the Jaguars and Steelers are his next two opponents, and they both have pass blocking deficiencies where Simmons lines up (left tackle and the interior). Now is the time to buy low after a poor Week 11 box score.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 4%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 8%
Kyle Dugger, DB, New England Patriots
Rostered in 12.9% of IDP leagues
Yup, he’s still here. In leagues where pass deflections count, his point total from last week was nine fantasy points in standard scoring. Nine points will win you your DB matchup most weeks, and such production is becoming standard for Dugger. He will continue to be a DB1 in our rankings, and yet 87% of fantasy leagues continue not to want him. We don't get it.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 5%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 7%
Ashtyn Davis, DB, New York Jets
Rostered in 7.8% of IDP leagues
Our Week 11 streamer delivered, and he should continue to be a DB3 or better the rest of this season. He has forced four turnovers over his past three games, and his opponent next week (the Houston Texans) sits fourth in the NFL in turnovers. While the Texans’ unit is more efficient with Tyrod Taylor under center, Davis still makes for a solid streamer against them and the Saints in Week 14.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 1%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 3%
Kyzir White, LB, Los Angeles Chargers
Rostered in 11.4% of IDP leagues
White is a familiar name to IDP junkies, and he’s been particularly productive over the past three weeks. He provides a solid tackle floor right now, while his next three matchups against the Broncos, Bengals, and Giants provide hope for big plays as well. White is a high-end LB3 who is available in 88.6% of IDP leagues.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 1%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 4%
Marcus Davenport, DL, New Orleans Saints
Rostered in 3.7% of IDP leagues
Davenport debuted on this list last week, and he rewarded those who added him with 1.5 sacks and double-digit tackles against the Eagles. Next week he faces another mobile passer in Josh Allen, and two weeks from now, he gets the Jets. This is an ascending player with two solid matchups over his next three games.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 1%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 3%
Dre Greenlaw, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Rostered in 3.3% of IDP leagues
Greenlaw is reportedly getting close to a return to action, and the 49ers’ front office has made multiple statements about how important the Arkansas alum is to their defense. While it’s possible that Azeez Al-Shaair played his way into more playing time during Greenlaw’s absence, it is equally possible San Francisco’s staff gives Greenlaw the chance to keep his job like they did Kwon Alexander before him. If Greenlaw can get his snaps back by December, he will be an LB3 moving forward.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 2%
Monty Rice, LB, Tennessee Titans
Rostered in 0.8% of IDP leagues
This Georgia grad was on our watch list this preseason, and he's finally getting a solid opportunity to shine thanks to various injuries to David Long Jr. and others. In just 68% of his team's snaps the past two weeks, Rice is averaging 9.5 tackles per game.
There's hope the rookie’s playing time will increase over the second half of the season, considering the third-round investment Tennessee made in the Bulldog. There’s also the chance that Long Jr. and Rashaan Evans continue to miss time. As long as Rice has a clear path to playing time, he’s a viable streamer.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep/Dynasty IDP Leagues: 4%
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, DL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rostered in 0.3% of IDP leagues
Tryon is a purely speculative addition for only the deepest of leagues. That said, he's available in nearly every single IDP league, including very deep ones. While his playing time is suspect, he has an incredible schedule that could bear a lot of fruit if he earns more snaps with effort or injuries. Four of his final seven games come against offenses in the bottom half of the NFL in pass blocker rating and sack rate. That schedule is worth stashing in deep IDP leagues if you can.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 1%
Andre Cisco, DB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Rostered in 0.1% of IDP leagues
Don't roster Cisco if you can't afford to let him age on your bench like a fine box of wine. Coach Urban Meyer isn't at the stage where he wants to field a rookie at the back of his defense, even if that rookie is faster and has better instincts than the guys ahead of him. However, the rise of Cisco should just be a matter of time. When he finally plays, he sports terrific ball skills that could make him an immediate fantasy contributor. That time could come next year, or it could come when the Jaguars finally accept they have no shot and it’s time to develop younger players.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep/Dynasty IDP Leagues: 1%
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