RADIO
As most of you know, this year marks the latest attempt by the NFL to turn your pockets inside out as they suck the last crumbs of dignity from your soul. I mean, this is the first 17-game regular season the NFL has ever seen. With this wonderful change comes an extra day of delicious gridiron greatness, as we are served 16 more chances to watch snippets of football in-between beer commercials and advertisements for erectile dysfunction medication. For many of us, getting these extra games is a true benefit, no matter the risks — but there are risks, specifically to fantasy managers.
Coming into the final third of the 2021 season, it is hard not to notice coaches' increasing care for players who are suffering from nagging injuries. While few of us are doctors with personal knowledge about how each of these players feels, it is difficult to ignore beat reporters when they say Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram may have played on Thanksgiving had this been a normal season. Meanwhile, some teams are transparently cautious with their players. The 49ers and Dolphins openly admit they gave George Kittle and Tua Tagovailoa extra weeks of rest because of the long season. The Cowboys are now looking at something similar with Ezekiel Elliott, dialing him back these next few weeks before a final push into Week 18 and beyond. This sort of injury plan is becoming a trend, and these are not the only players that fantasy managers have lost to the winds of caution in 2021.
With all of this said, we are not saying that an increased concern for player health/safety is a bad thing. On the contrary, it is good for NFL teams and their players when proper healing and rest are possible. However, what is good for an NFL team’s playoff roster isn’t always good for your fantasy team. As you prepare for the final turn of your season, these precautionary rest games can wreak havoc on your playoff chances or your title contests. That’s why you must be aware of these teams and their trends before you execute your final trades or waiver claims this year. Consider what teams can afford to rest their star running back and which ones need all hands on deck. Those things will matter in your final weeks, just as they could matter when you make your draft picks next year…. And with that, let’s get on with our Weekly IDP Waiver Priorities. Remember that defenders only qualify if their roster percentage falls below 20% in IDP leagues.
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Jeffery Simmons, DL, Tennessee Titans
Rostered in 16.1% of IDP leagues
Simmons was on his way to not qualifying for this list, and then his roster rate actually declined. He's playing All-Pro caliber ball this season, and four of his final five contests come against ailing or leaky offensive lines. Consider Simmons to be a very strong DL2 and a top-end DT1.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 3%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 8%
Demarcus Lawrence, DL, Dallas Cowboys
Rostered in 12.1% of IDP leagues
Lawrence has seen his rostership drop more than 30% since he went on the IR at the beginning of the year, which is understandable. However, he was recently activated and is now expected to start this Thursday against the Saints. When he went down, Lawrence had yet to play with a fully unleashed Micah Parsons. Now, both the rookie and the veteran should help each other harass opposing quarterbacks with regularity. Lawrence is a DL2 option who is available in nearly 88% of IDP leagues and he should be one of the most added defenders this week.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 2%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 5%
Kamren Curl, DB, Washington Football Team
Rostered in 8.5% of IDP leagues
With Kyle Dugger finally rostered in more than 20% of leagues, we can now start beating the drum for Curl again. While he isn’t nearly as prolific this year as Dugger, Curl is becoming a reliable source of both solo and total tackles since taking back his 2020 position on Washington's defense. He is one of the safest DBs amongst those available in more than 80% of IDP leagues and a guy who won't lose you your week. Don’t underestimate how valuable a DB with a reliable floor can be once you hit the playoffs.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 2%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 5%
Xavier McKinney, DB, New York Giants
Rostered in 6.7% of IDP leagues
Since Week 6 of this season, McKinney has been ascending in terms of fantasy and real football. The Alabama alum has five interceptions in his past six games, is averaging six tackles per game in that span, and he faces three of the most high-volume passing attacks in the NFL over his next three games. There’s no way he should be rostered in less than 7% of leagues right now, but he is.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 2%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 4%
Kareem Jackson, DB, Denver Broncos
Rostered in 3.7% of IDP leagues
Jackson was dropped in nearly 15% of IDP leagues over the past two weeks thanks to a neck injury that sidelined him during that time. On Monday, Broncos' Head Coach Vic Fangio indicated that he expects Jackson to play this week, meaning he should return to being on your DB3 radar. The former Crimson Tide star has just one game in his past seven with fewer than five solo tackles, which indicates a strong weekly floor for those teams looking for a DB who just won’t crap the bed any given week.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 2%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 3%
Kamu Grugier-Hill, LB, Houston Texans
Rostered in 7.8% of IDP leagues
One of our top streamers last week, Grugier-Hill is having a similar breakout season to the one Tyrell Adams had for the Texans last season. That means he should be good this year but fall off a cliff next season. This former Eagle has four turnovers and two sacks on the season, and he's averaging a solid 4.6 solo tackles per game. Even better, he has an elite matchup with the Colts next week, which provides a very good opportunity at double-digit tackles.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 1%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 4%
Mykal Walker, LB, Atlanta Falcons
Rostered in 0.3% of IDP leagues
For those thinking anyone can step into a linebacker position for the Atlanta Falcons and secure double-digit tackles, Walker is your Exhibit A. With Deion Jones out on Sunday, Walker absorbed all of the starting snaps on that defense, and he collected 12 tackles and a pass deflection as a result.
While it's possible Jones returns from his shoulder injury this week, it's also possible Atlanta takes his recovery slow and lets Walker get more experience during a lost season. The Fresno State product is worth a speculative add in deeper formats, or if you simply want to take a flyer on an upside player who should be free on waivers.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 1%
Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Rostered in 0.0% of IDP leagues
This one is a complete flyer, as Flannigan-Fowles didn’t exactly tear things up the one time he saw the field on more than 60% of the 49ers’ defensive snaps. That said, someone will have to step into a big role on this defense, with both Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw looking unlikely to play against the Seahawks this coming week.
While Azeez Al-Shaair is the most likely beneficiary of the 49ers' injuries, and he should be rostered in more than 13% of leagues, Flannigan-Fowles is a very interesting deep league option as well. If you play in a truly deep IDP format that requires you to field five or more LBs, Flannigan-Fowles is a definite streaming option. He should absorb approximately 80% of the 49ers’ defensive snaps if Warner and Greenlaw don’t get healthy quick, which could lead to some nice fantasy opportunities against a Seahawks offense that is struggling to run or pass with efficiency.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 0%
Sheldon Richardson, DL, Minnesota Vikings
Rostered in 0.7% of IDP leagues
This familiar name hasn't been fantasy-relevant in a bit, but he's available in 99.3% of IDP leagues, and he is starting to see significant snaps on a Vikings line that needs his help. Richardson saw his first start of the season come against the 49ers, and it was clear that line didn't have much besides him, thanks to a variety of injuries.
The lack of help Richardson has on that line will be an issue, but if you're considering adding him, you're comfortable taking a risk. The hope here is the once-again Viking will continue to see over 70% of the snaps against the Lions, Steelers, and Bears these next three weeks. If he does, he should far outplay his current roster percentage for those playing in deeper leagues.
FAAB in Standard IDP Leagues: 0%
FAAB in Deep IDP Leagues: 1%
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